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 411mania » Politics » Blog Entry
New Polls 07.02.08: CT, MA, FL, GA
Posted by Ashish on 07.02.2008



Another busy day of new polls...

-- In Connecticut, Rasmussen has Obama up big, 52% to 35%, while Quinnipac has him up even bigger, 56% to 35%. Believe it or not, there was a time not too long ago (about a month ago) that the McCain camp was claiming that they would be competitive in Connecticut. Obviously that is not the case. This state won't be close and McCain won't spend a dime here. Both polls have Obama winning among women and men, whites and blacks, and the young and old.

-- In Florida, Strategic Vision has McCain ahead of Obama 49% to 41%. We now have a situation where since the primaries ended, Strategic Vision and Rasmussen have shown McCain leading in the state while Public Policy, Quinnipac, and ARG have shown Obama leading in the state.

-- In Massachusetts, Rasmussen has Obama ahead big, 53% to 33%. This confirms SurveyUSA's poll from earlier in the week which also had Obama ahead big. This is a safe state for Obama.

-- In Georgia, Strategic Vision has McCain ahead of Obama 51% to 43% with Bob Barr getting 3%. This is more or less in line with Rasmussen's Georgia poll from earlier this week that had McCain ahead 10%. It's hard to see Obama pulling off an upset here unless Barr gets 5%-6% of the vote.

We're now seeing Obama sure up all the Kerry 2004 states. The only ones that McCain appears to have legitimate shots at flipping now are Michigan and New Hampshire. Connecticut was one I was waiting on to see if the good numbers McCain posted back in May would hold, but they haven't. Meanwhile, Florida continues to be all over the place and Georgia, at least right now, doesn't appear to be too much of a concern for McCain.


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Comments (1)

 
I think Obama would be better off spending money in Texas than in Georgia...

Posted By: Ed (Guest)  on July 02, 2008 at 07:56 PM

 
STAY CURRENT
Latest Major National Poll
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.29-08.31 CBS 48 40
Ashish's Latest Electoral College Preview
Date Obama McCain
08.04.08 309 229
RCP's Latest Electoral College Preview
Date Obama McCain
08.24.08 273 265

Advertisement

Battleground States: Latest Polls
New Hampshire (04)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.18-08.18 Rasmussen 47 46
Pennsylvania (21)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.24-08.26 CNN/TIME 48 43
Ohio (20)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.31-09.02 CNN/TIME 47 45
Michigan (17)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.17-08.20 Det. Free Press 46 39
Indiana (11)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.16-08.19 SurveyUSA 44 50
Minnesota (10)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.31-09.02 CNN/TIME 53 41
Iowa (07)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.31-09.02 CNN/TIME 55 40
Montana (03)
Date Poll Obama McCain
07.29-07.29 Rasmussen 47 47
Missouri (11)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.13-08.17 Public Policy 40 50
Virginia (13)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.20-08.22 Public Policy 47 45
North Carolina (15)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.20-08.23 Public Policy 42 45
Georgia (15)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.14-08.14 Rasmussen 44 53
Florida (27)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.17-08.24 Quinnipiac 43 47
New Mexico (05)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.24-08.26 CNN/TIME 53 40
Colorado (09)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.24-08.26 CNN/TIME 46 47
Nevada (05)
Date Poll Obama McCain
08.24-08.26 CNN/TIME 49 44


Safe States (for now)
Obama McCain
CA (55) AK (03)
CT (07) AL (09)
DC (03) AR (06)
DE (03) AZ (10)
HI (04) ID (04)
IL (21) KS (06)
MA (12) KY (08)
MD (10) LA (09)
ME (04) NE (05)
NJ (15) OK (07)
NY (31) MS (06)
OR (07) ND (03)
RI (04) SC (08)
VT (03) SD (03)
WA (11) TN (11)
WI (10) TX (34)
UT (05)
WV (05)
WY (03)
TOTAL: 200 EV TOTAL: 145 EV
270 needed to win


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The Field 538
RealClearPolitics Ben Smith
Mark Ambinder The Stump
First Read The Page


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