New Polls 07.03.08: MT, RI, NY, WA, CT

Posted by Ashish on 07.03.2008

Shocker in Montana and Obama solidifies leads in other blue states...

We have some new polls today but all the talk centers around one...

-- In Montana, Rasmussen has Obama BEATING McCain 48% to 43%. This is a state that George W. Bush won by 20% in 2004 and 25% in 2000! So how has Obama built such an impressive number in what should be a very safe red state? He is leading by 27% among voters under 30 and is getting 89% of the Democratic vote (which is higher than usual). Montana only has three electoral votes but it is a key state because Obama also plans to compete in North Dakota which is similar. And keep in mind that Obama will be in Montana tomorrow in an event that will get a lot of coverage in the state. He also is already running TV ads in the state while McCain isn't. It will be interesting to see if McCain changes his plans and starts to defend the state, or just ignores it and takes the risk of losing it, because it's obvious that it is not going to be an assumed win for the Republicans this year. We can now add Montana to the list of states that Bush won in 2004 but that McCain either has a slight lead, tied, or losing in. That list now includes 12 states -- Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, Colorado, Neveda, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Alaska, and Montana. We also know that Obama will compete in North Dakota and Georgia, meaning Obama will be on the offense in 14 Bush states. Where McCain decides to play defense will be interesting.

-- In Rhode Island, Rhode Island College has Obama with a big lead over McCain, 53% to 25%. Rhode Island obviously won't be close.

-- In Connecticut, Research 2000 has Obama with a big lead, 57% to 35%. Connecticut is another state that doesn't look to be close at all.

-- In Washington, Strategies 360 has Obama ahead of McCain, 47% to 39%. Washington continues to look out of reach for McCain and I'd be surprised if he invests any real resources into the state.

-- And in New York, Rasmussen has the race turning into a major blowout with Obama leading McCain 60% to 29%. Back in March, Obama led by just 13%. That grew to 17% in April, 19% in May, and is now at 31% in June.