Who Is Winning Over Moderates?

Posted by Ashish on 07.08.2008

New poll looks at whether Obama or McCain is winning over moderates...

Rasmussen has a new poll out looking at who has been more successful at moving to the center in this election thus far between Obama and McCain. As most anyone who follows Presidential elections knows, the candidate who moves to the center most effectively usually wins.

So far, the poll has Obama successfully moving to a more moderate position while McCain is still having a hard time getting rid of the conservative label he got stuck with during the primaries and the months that followed where he tried to win over the Republican base.

During the primaries, 67% said Obama was liberal. Now, that number is down to 56%. Last month, 36% said Obama was "very liberal." Now, that number is down to 22%.

McCain was viewed as conservative by 67% a month ago, but today, he is still at 66%. 19% saw him as very conservative in June, but that is now up to 28%.

Obama is now viewed as a moderate by 27% (up from 22%) while McCain is viewed as a moderate by 23% (down from 26%).

This would seem to indicate that Obama's attempts to move to the center have gone over better than McCain's thus far. Obama can probably win the election even if he loses moderates, as long as he gets record turnout from Democrats which is expected. However, due to Republican party ID being so low now, McCain will have to win over Republicans, increase their turnout, AND win moderates to win the election. This is a bit tricky. It's difficult to energize moderates and Republicans at the same time, especially when the current Republican President has a 27% approval rating and is very disliked among moderates, but still fairly popular among Republicans. If McCain makes a sharp move to the center, like Obama has over the past two weeks, he will get the same "flip-flopper" charges that Obama has gotten to some extent. But he can't lose moderates and expect to win the election.

Of course, the Republicans are going to air many ads over the next few months painting Obama as a liberal. Whether his growing image as a moderate can survive that remains to be seen.