New Polls 07.10.08: ND, IL, AL, NJ, National

Posted by Ashish on 07.10.2008

Several new polls including a stunner out of North Dakota...

We have our first full batch of polls in awhile...

-- The big one is out of North Dakota where Rasmussen has Obama and McCain tied at 43%! When "leaners" are factored in, McCain leads 47% to 46%. This is a stunning number considering Bush won this state by 27% in 2004. This also validates why the Obama campaign is spending time and money here -- they have a shot here. This poll also makes sense considering last week's Rasmussen poll which had Obama ahead by 5% in neighboring Montana. The internals of the poll show McCain winning men and Obama winning women. The big area of contrast though is the economy vs. national security. Obama has a 20% lead over McCain among voters who consider the econony the most important issue (39% of those polled) while McCain has a 37% lead among voters who consider national security the top issue (24% of those polled). McCain is also on the losing end of the Iraq question. 53% say it is more important to get troops home than to win the war while 41% say it is more important to win the war. North Dakota and Montana are going to be fascinating to watch. They used to be among the safest Republican states in the country, but that seems to be changing. They each only have three electoral votes, but combine for six, which is more than a swing state like New Mexico which will see a lot of attention from both campaigns. The big question is, does McCain compete in these two states? They are very cheap which is why Obama isn't concerned with spending here, it doesn't cost must since neither state has an expensive media market. Whether McCain ignores these states and risks losing them or puts resources into them, in which case they are winners for Obama whether he wins or not, will be interesting to watch. I'm going to wait for other pollsters to confirm the closeness of North Dakota and Montana before officially moving them to swing state status, but it is going to be a major symbolic loss for McCain if he has to spend any time or money in either North Dakota or Montana.

-- In Illinois, Rasmussen has Obama ahead of McCain 50% to 37%. When you factor in leaners, it's 52% to 41%. This state won't be close for obvious reasons.

-- In New Jersey, Rasmussen has Obama holding a narrow lead over McCain, 44% to 39%. When leaners are factored in, it's 47% to 44%. This is surprisingly close. Of course, Rasmussen has been showing NJ much closer than any other pollster and the state doesn't appear to be this close based on other polls. Plus, with NJ being so expensive to compete in, don't expect McCain to gamble much here. NJ has a habit of tempting the Republicans just about every four years, but it usually always falls back to somewhat solidly blue. I'll wait until another pollster shows this race as close before considering it to be a state that may be in play.

-- And in Alabama, AEA has McCain ahead of Obama 49% to 36%. No real surprise here, although this is much closer than a month or so ago when McCain led by 20%+. Don't expect this state to be close, as it is a pretty safe bet for McCain.

- We also have our first new national poll in awhile. PEW Research has Obama ahead of McCain 48% to 40%. To compare, PEW's poll of Bush/Kerry at this exact time in 2004 showed Bush leading 46% to 42% and they never showed either Bush or Kerry with a lead as large as 8% (Bush's biggest lead was 7% in early October '04 while Kerry's biggest lead was 3% in May '04). Check out the full poll details for all kinds of useful information. It's 36 pages long and asks every question you can think of, AND compares all data to Bush/Kerry, Bush/Gore and even Dole/Clinton and Bush/Clinton.