Breakdown Of McCain's Potential VP Picks

Posted by Ashish on 07.14.2008

Thoughts on who seems to be on the short list and the benefits and drawbacks of all...

The buzz for VP picks is increasing so I thought I'd breakdown the people who seem to still be on the lists. I'm doing McCain's picks today and will do Obama's later in the week.

Mitt Romney -- Most seem to think that Romney is the favorite at this point. What does Romney bring to the table? First, he has access to big money circles and will instantly help McCain with fundraising. With Obama expected to raise more than McCain, money is a factor. Second, Romney is a Mormon and would turn out the Mormon vote in record numbers. The only swing state where this would matter is Nevada, but it would still help. Third, Romney has ties to Michigan and Michigan is looking like McCain's best (only?) chance at flipping a blue state this year. Forth, Romney has strong name recognition. Fifth, the Republican "establishment" likes Romney. Sixth, the right wing radio crowd, particularly the likes of Sean Hannity, like Romney. Seventh, Romney has experience as a successful businessman which may help McCain in the economic department. Eighth, Romney is a former Governor and has experience as an executive. He's "ran stuff" and that tends to go over well in Presidential elections which is why Governors usually turn into Presidents, not Senators.

Of course, Romney has a lot of drawbacks to. First, going by what we saw in the primaries, McCain has a personal dislike of Romney. McCain failed at hiding that dislike during the Republican debates. Second, unfortunately religious bigotry still exists in America and Romney being a Mormon will cost McCain votes and further alienate the Christian right. Third, the primaries left Romney's brand badly damaged. By the time they ended, he was branded by many as phony, a flip-flopper, a millionaire from big business (which, somewhat unfairly, is a negative) and a typical politician. In a year where Republicans are hoping to use most of those same lines of attack on Obama, putting a guy who embodies those traits on the ticket wouldn't make much sense. Forth, Romney never showed any ability to connect with voters beyond his base during the primaries. Fifth, Democrats will have a field day exposing Romney's many past flip-flops on controversial issues like abortion and gay marriage. Again, in a year where Republicans want to brand Obama as a flip-flopper, putting a guy who has consistently changed positions based on what office he was running for on the ticket may not be wise.

My feeling on Romney is he would be a bad pick. McCain cannot afford to further alienate the Christian right. Without them, Kerry would be President right now. But even beyond them, lumping together McCain's age and Romney's religion would suddenly raise a lot of questions, fair or not, about the ticket when that is exactly what Republicans are trying to do to Obama. Same goes for all the other lines of attack like flip-flopper, elite, etc. which Romney happens to embody more than Obama. Despite all of this though, I am calling him the favorite at this point due to party establishment support which is probably having a lot of influence this year since the party establishment isn't exactly in love with McCain. It's a dangerous pick though if McCain makes it.

Tim Pawlenty -- Pawlenty is the Governor of Minnesota and most consider him to be the other favorite, next to Romney. What does he bring to the table? The main appeal of Pawlenty is to try and put Minnesota in play. Of course, Minnesota seems like a long shot for McCain and beyond that, there isn't much of a reason to pick Pawlenty. If McCain thinks Pawlenty is going to help at all in states like Wisconsin, he is greatly overestimating the historical impact of a VP on the electoral college -- that being the VP pick tends to have little to no impact in states beyond his homestate. That being said, McCain DOES have to try and gamble and steal a big state like Minnesota because otherwise, he isn't in good position to win right now. If their camp thinks their best shot at creating an upset is in Minnesota with Pawlenty, it may be a risk they have to take. Plus Pawlenty isn't really a divisive figure like Romney would be (in some circles), so even if he doesn't help much, he probably won't hurt much either.

Bobby Jindal -- Jindal is the very young Governor of Louisiana. Obviously putting someone so young (he's in his 30s) would generate news and counter Obama's youth, but it would be a visual nightmare when McCain and Jindal are on stage together. Not to mention the fact that Jindal having brown skin (he's Indian) will probably raise questions in the minds of the same people who still think Obama is some sort of secret Muslim terrorist. I think the GOP made sure to get Jindal's name out there in VP discussions as a way of raising his status, as he is one of the party's up and coming stars, but I seriously doubt he gets the VP spot this year. Plus, he has some VERY rightwing positions on things like teaching intelligent design in school and chemical castration of sex offenders, not to mention the fact that he has apparently performed exorcisms on people. In a year where Republicans really need to win Independents, putting a guy so far to the right on the ticket would be a risk.

Sarah Palin -- Palin is the female Governor of Alaska. She, like Jindal, is young and considered one of the party's up and coming stars. The issue here though is that, again, she would provide a strange visual with McCain. But going beyond that, she has been a fantastic Governor for Alaska, has approval ratings in the 80s and 90s, has strong conservative credentials (except some moderate positions on gay rights), has a son in the army, and is a lifetime member of the NRA. Palin would help put away Alaska, where Obama plans to compete, but at this point she seems like a longshot to get the VP slot for whatever reason. And if McCain loses Alaska, it is probably part of a landslide loss, so he shouldn't pick a VP based on saving a state that he should win anyway. Palin would generate a LOT of buzz though because she is a woman and would help McCain tap into disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters. She is a hail mary type pick but could be a game changer if selected. The big question here is whether McCain and the Republican party have the guts to pull the trigger on a move like this. Palin could do a lot to rebuild the broken Republican brand, as well as provide a counter to Obama's message of change and looking to the future. She is someone who deserves a lot more attention and focus than she is getting. One other potential risk with her though, besides the fact that adding a woman could (no way of knowing) hurt McCain some with men, is that she has not really been on the national stage.

Charlie Crist -- Crist is the popular Governor of Florida. Crist would be a good pick in just about everyway except one -- heavy rumors that he is gay. If you do some Google searching on him, you will see that a big chunk of stuff that comes up about him has to do with rumors that he is gay. The gay issue is obviously a touchy one for Republicans. Plus, let's face it, part of the strategy against Obama is to push the viral email smear rumors about him being Muslim. Having Crist on the ticket would create the same type of viral smear against him over his sexual orientation. But still, Crist would probably do more to lock Florida up for McCain than anyone else.

From what I can tell, these are the people still being considered, with Romney and Pawlenty being the two favorites. Mike Huckabee does not appear to be an option anymore even though I think he would be by far the best pick for McCain. Why? He would energize and rally the Christian right like no other candidate can, he comes off as very likable which the McCain ticket needs against a charismatic guy like Obama, he is a former Governor who has experience, he has a way of connecting with voters (how else did he win Iowa while being heavily outspent by Romney) and he would probably take Georgia and North Carolina off the map for Obama. Sure Huckabee hasn't been a rock solid conservative on taxes and government projects in the past, but I cannot stress enough how important it will be for McCain to have the Christian right backing him up at the same levels as they did Bush. Obama is going to draw record turnouts from African Americans and young people, and McCain has got to be able to counter that. Bush got Evangelicals to turnout huge in 2004 and it is why he won. McCain has no real ties to the Christian community and all signs right now indicate that they will support him, but not at the levels they supported Bush. Republicans have to increase their turnout from 2004 to win this year because Democratic turnout will be up from 2004. That means McCain has to outpace Bush among Christians or make it up among another group, and there doesn't seem to be a group where McCain is currently stronger than Bush was.

Out of the people being considered, I'd probably just go with Pawlenty or Crist, even though I think Romney has the best shot at getting it and that Palin has the most upside. Crist would sure up Florida which would probably ensure that McCain is in the game come November, and that is pretty valuable. Pawlenty would be more of a gamble because all he brings to the table is a possible Minnesota upset which, even with him, seems unlikely. But if they can pull that upset off, it would dramatically increase McCain's chances of winning. Romney is just so risky. I don't think he can deliver Michigan and beyond that, he is a negative in virtually every category and could fatally hurt McCain in states like Georgia where a McCain/Romney ticket could see some serious backlash from Evangelical Christians. Palin would be a pick that has the most potential upside to not only help McCain win the election, but to also be a great Vice President and to help rebuild the Republican brand, but I don't know if McCain and the Republican party is ready to go with her. If they pick her though, it could drastically change things since Obama's strength right now is largely based on the fact that he is doing well with women voters who make up more than half of all voters in the country. You have to assume that if Palin is on the ticket with McCain, even if they don't win among women, they will instantly be much stronger in that group, especially if Obama doesn't pick a woman as his VP. Remember, Obama will have to announce his VP pick before McCain, because the Democratic convention is before the Republican convention. That means McCain can wait and see if Obama picks a woman, and if he doesn't, go with Palin. Of course, it's hard to predict whether adding Palin could hurt McCain with men. It's certainly possible.

Interestingly enough, McCain doesn't seem to be putting much weight in actual governing. All his potential picks seem to be totally based on helping him win the election. It should be noted that the last two Presidents, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, did not pick their VPs based on trying to maximize electoral votes. They picked based on who they got along with and who they felt would help them run the country best. Of course, McCain is an underdog in this election so his view is probably to do whatever he can to win, and worry about the rest later, and that's probably the right way to view it.