New Polls 07.18.08: VA, AK, NJ, MA

Posted by Ashish on 07.18.2008

Virginia remains a total toss up while McCain gets good news in Alaska...

Few new polls today...

-- In Virginia, Rasmussen has Obama and McCain tied at 44%. When leaners are included, it's McCain 48% and Obama 47%. Virginia is probably the closest state on the map right now. It seems like a total toss up, where as virtually all the other swing states tend to lean one way or another, even if only slightly. All pollsters are showing basically a deadheat in the state. It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out.

-- Good news for McCain in Alaska. Research 2000 has him leading Obama comfortably, 51% to 41%. A few polls have shown Obama close in Alaska, so to get a poll showing a McCain double digit lead is probably a bit of a relief for the right. I wouldn't be surprised to see Alaska fall out of play soon. Obama has run a few ads in the state but it will be very tough for him to win there. Now that he has states like Montana and North Dakota in play, I wouldn't be shocked to see him let Alaska go. Demographically, he has much better shots in Montana and the Dakotas. And it's pretty obvious that McCain isn't going to bite on the bluff and spend money in Alaska, which may have been why Obama put up a few ads there initially. I'm going to go ahead and move Alaska back to "safe McCain" and out of swing state status.

-- In New Jersey, Strategic Vision has Obama ahead of McCain fairly comfortably, 47% to 38%. Don't be surprised to see New Jersey float around in the 8%-9% range for awhile, but I don't expect it to come into play. Even if McCain gets fairly close, the state is too expensive for him to gamble in.

-- And in Maine, Rasmussen has Obama leading McCain 46% to 36%. When leaners are included, it's 49% to 41%. This is closer than the state was last month, but doesn't really make much of a difference. Obama will win this state easily and neither candidate will compete here.


Overall, a decent day of polling for McCain, mainly because of the Alaska number. Virginia remains a deadheat and it will probably stay that way. The state has a very good shot at being the Florida/Ohio of 2008 in that we may not have any idea who will win until the winner is announced on election night.