Has Bush Submarined McCain?

Posted by Andrew Tobolowsky on 07.18.2008

How the President's recent changes of heart put McCain in an impossible position

In the last week, Bush has made two extremely surprising movies, the first of course agreeing to send an envoy to diplomatic talks with Iran followed by agreeing to something which—whatever time horizon means--can't help but be viewed by the pro-timetable crowd as a victory. A somewhat underreported part of these stories is the fact that probably no one is as surprised as John McCain, who has largely built his opposition to Obama on those two fronts—refusing direct talks with enemies of the United States and refusing to establish a timetable. One thing he presumably never expected was to find himself opposed, not only by Barack Obama, but by George W. Bush.

It is curious, to a certain degree, that an administration which has now refused to change its mind on nearly everything for seven years now would suddenly reverse itself on two key issues, but not so curious. Even George Bush can't possibly the burgeoning criticism of his handling of nearly everything and must, at this point, have some eye towards his legacy. However, to—finally—do the right thing, if it is the right thing, is one issue. To do so in a way that submarines the campaign of your supposed successor four months from the national election is almost unfathomable.

What happens next will be interesting. Obama, as we all know, will be out of radio contact for the next week or so, so McCain will have that week for uninterrupted damage control. In reality, however, it would appear that he's boxed into a corner. He has been unpredictable all campaign long, torn between his desire to continue to appear a maverick, an outsider, and appeal to the republican power base at large and it has often been an uneasy marriage. It is difficult to imagine him finding the right mix of those two to handle this potential disaster.

Because what he's saying is directly in contrast to what President Bush has just done, McCain's two options at this point, which are both largely unthinkable. He faces the extremely unappetizing choice between either directly opposing Bush on republican issues, or else, to renegotiate a more moderate position. Either is probably political suicide. The former will shove him farther into a corner, remove himself even farther from the desires of the mainstream republican community who can't all find Bush's new decisions an unwelcome shock. The latter is even worse, since any step he takes which brings him closer to Obama's positions on issues is bound to prove a detriment. What McCain has going for him has nothing to do with how palatable he is. If issues become less of an important factor, if he concedes his hardline opinions, he's going to get run over by the more charismatic, more telegenic, and frankly more personally appealing candidate. The more like Obama McCain is in his principles, in other words, the more Obama's tremendous personal strengths come to bear.

In reality, this debacle was long in coming. Each candidate at the beginning of the race seems to have bet on one or two "winners" to keep hammering home. With Obama so much in the ascendant of late, even in states that should have been slam dunks for McCain, it is clear that MCain picked the wrong one. Like many of you, I've seen those internet ads which I at first thought was an internet poll-- "Do you think America should engage in direct talks with its enemies?" –and which was actually apparently a John McCain campaign advertisement. It never struck me as effective because I did, actually, think America should engage in direct talks with its enemies, seeing as there was no need for us to then promise anything and as our policy of noncommunication had proved so dreadfully ineffective. Unless it was simply a principled stand, without which he'd rather not be president, this was arrogance bordering on hubris, in McCain, to assume the majority of Americans did agree with him on these issues.

The fact that it was Bush who pulled the floor out from under him is surprising, but also potentially the most devastating possibility. To have any hope in an election its already losing, the Republican party can't afford division. Now, thanks to the events of the last week, it would seem quite difficult to avoid it. Unless McCain comes up with something, and fast--this week--there will be no way out, and here from November will be a victory lap.