The GOP VP Scorecard

Posted by Chris Connolly on 07.22.2008

Who is moving to the head of the class?

Ashish gave his take on the current crop of possible GOP VP nominees, so I figured that I would add my two cents. I decided to grade them on several factors in order to come up with who I think would generate the most buzz for McCain. For each candidate, I'll spare you the tedious details (the links are to their Wikipedia pages if you want those) and give them letter grades based on experience, name recognition, potential problems and issue stances. Along with each grade I'll give a brief explanation, and my overall take on them and their chances.



Mitt Romney
EXPERIENCE: A Romney is by far one of the most experienced choices either party is considering. He is a successful businessman, helped save the Salt Lake City Olympics and was a decent governor in Massachusetts.
NAME RECOGNITION: A He and Rudy were widely seen as the top potential GOP nominees for most of 2007, and the massive amount of money he spent during the primary put him squarely in the public eye.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: F The "flip-flop" label has attached itself to Romney so securely he might as well have a dolphin fin surgically attached to his back. (Although to be fair, unlike a lot of politicians he admits he has changed his mind on some issues and gives an explanation as to why.) His tenure in Massachusetts was a mixed bag, seeing as how he fixed the budget mess there but also became unpopular due to raising some fees and taxes. His health care reform effort there is widely unpopular and will not sit well with "the base". He also comes off sometimes as almost too polished. His religion is also a big roadblock for voters.
ISSUE STANCES: C For Romney, it isn't a question of where he stands on issues important to the GOP base, but rather his relatively recent conversions to those stances. Had he run more conservatively in his Senate race against Ted Kennedy, his current stances might seem more sincere.
OVERALL: C+ While he wouldn't be an awful choice, McCain should leave Romney off the ticket. He isn't going to generate a lot of buzz among conservatives, and he has too many negatives floating around him. Besides, McCain doesn't need him on the ticket to get Mormons to the polls in November. Having Romney be a highly visible surrogate in those areas during the run up to election day can accomplish the same thing.

Sarah Palin
EXPERIENCE: C Palin is the current Governor Alaska. Before her election in 2006 she served on several state commissions along with being a mayor.
NAME RECOGNITION: C This grade could be an A in two weeks since talk of expanded domestic oil production has thrust her into the spotlight. She has great approval ratings in Alaska right now, and is becoming the GOP's fastest rising star, aside from Bobby Jindal.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: A Aside from an ill-fated attempt to save a state-owned dairy business, Palin is a very safe pick.
ISSUE STANCES: A Palin is a very solid conservative. She fought members of her own party to clean up the way things are run in the state, which is something GOP voters would love. The only issue she may hit a snag on is vetoing a bill that would have denied benefits to gay state employees and their partners.
OVERALL: B Palin is rapidly becoming the "next big thing" for the GOP. As the energy issue gets more play in the media, she is going to continue to gain support from party activists. She can also add some much needed excitement to the ticket and help make inroads with women voters. Out of all the names on this list, she is my pick.

Mike Huckabee
EXPERIENCE: B Huckabee served as both Lt. Governor and Governor in Arkansas. In addition, he spent several years as a pastor at several Baptist Churches in his home state.
NAME RECOGNITION: A During the primaries, Huckabee went from being an unknown former governor to the leader of the Evangelical wing of the GOP. Since dropping out of the race, he has kept himself highly visible in the media.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: D Huckabee has a tendency to stick his foot in his mouth, such as his joke about Obama at the NRA convention and questioning Romney's religion. Also, while he may be highly popular with Evangelicals, he has made no friends with the small government conservative/libertarian wing of the party. His endorsement of Alaska Rep. Don "Bridge to Nowhere" Young (who is under Federal investigation right now) has also made him an enemy of GOP government reform advocates. His ethics problems as governor could also cause some headaches.
ISSUE STANCES: C On social issues, Huckabee is an ideal VP candidate. He's strongly pro-life and against same-sex marriage, the two big issues for social conservatives. However, Huckabee mirrors Bush in that he is not for smaller, less intrusive government. Support of the Fair Tax aside, Huckabee is seen by many within the party as someone with no interest in curbing the growth of government spending.
OVERALL: C+ I personally do not like Mike Huckabee. A few weeks ago I heard someone refer to him as a "Christian Socialist", which might just be the best description of him. While he appeals to people who only vote based on social issues, he lacks appeal to the broader base of economically conservative voters who want spending and entitlement reform. Those voters stayed home in 2006 or voted for Democrats who ran as economic conservatives. Picking Huckabee will not bring those voters back.

Bobby Jindal
EXPERIENCE: C Jindal has an impressive resume. The only problem is that he has not stayed with one position for any length of time. If he had, this grade would be higher.
NAME RECOGNITION: B Jindal has made quite a name for himself in the GOP ranks. His work as governor of Louisiana has made him pretty popular among conservatives and the media.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: C Jindal caused a bit of a stir in Louisiana when he said he was not going to veto a legislative pay raise. Voters there got so upset they started a recall petition. He did eventually change his mind, but it has hurt him. His support for a controversial Intelligent Design bill could become an issue if he becomes the VP nominee. Plus the "exorcism" story could be used to brand him as a religious zealot.
ISSUE STANCES: A Jindal may be the perfect VP for those who vote based on a "mainstream conservative" checklist. His efforts at government and health care reform in Louisiana fit well with the government reform message that McCain seems to be trying to use. He's solid on social issues and really appeals to those who prefer market-based solutions to problems.
OVERALL: B- I like Jindal a lot. He's a dynamic speaker and has a great life story. I just think that he needs to have a longer record of success than what he has now in order to be a great VP choice.
UPDATE: After I had this section written, Jindal announced he was not going to be VP.

Tom Ridge
EXPERIENCE: A Ridge has perhaps the most extensive experience out of all the potential picks. He has been a congressman, Governor of Pennsylvania and Secretary of Homeland Security. He is also a Vietnam Vet and former district attorney.
NAME RECOGNITION: C As a former governor and congressman, Ridge is well known in Pennsylvania and DC. His work at Homeland Security also brought him to the attention of the public at large, but probably not enough to make him a household name.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: D Being pro-choice would hurt him with most of the GOP base. In the general election, Ridge's work at Homeland Security might also cause the ticket some headaches. I can see the attack ads featuring color coded threat levels and duct tape now.
ISSUE STANCES: C Aside from his abortion stance, Ridge seems like a decent candidate. He would appeal to government reform advocates because of his record of modernizing government in Pennsylvania. Spending reform advocates would probably warm to him as well since he not only balanced the budget but also created a "rainy day fund" of over a billion dollars for use in an economic slowdown so taxes would not have to be raised.
OVERALL: C Ridge is not an exciting pick. He isn't going to rally people to McCain, except in his home state of Pennsylvania. While I think he would be an effective VP, especially if McCain had him focus on streamlining the way DC works, I think the way he is tied to Bush would cause McCain too many problems in other states.

Mark Sanford
EXPERIENCE: A A former congressman who left due to a self-imposed term limit, Sanford is the current governor of South Carolina.
NAME RECOGNITION: C Sanford is fairly well known to people who follow politics regularly, but is not a national household name.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: A Sanford has a great reputation among reform-minded members of the GOP. In Congress, he refused the temptation to bring pork home to his district. As governor, he has fought the GOP-controlled legislature relentlessly on spending, even going so far as to release several pigs on the House floor in protest of their override of his veto of spending bills.
ISSUE STANCES: A Sanford is the closest to being a Libertarian of all the possible picks. He has been a strong opponent of wasteful spending and supports market-based reforms for schools. Socially he is conservative, but not as vocal as some of the other people on the list.
OVERALL: A- I would say that Sanford is the best choice if McCain wanted to appeal to Ron Paul supporters. The only real difference between Sanford and Paul is that Sanford isn't a conspiracy theory believing lunatic. The only real question about him is whether or not he wants the job, and unfortunately for us small government types, he seems to have no interest in doing anything other than serving out his last term as governor.

Carly Fiorina
EXPERIENCE: C Fiorina has a wealth of private sector experience, as a former executive at several companies, including being CEO of HP. However, she doesn't have any government experience. While some of us might look at that as a positive, in the minds of most mainstream voters this may be seen as a negative.
NAME RECOGNITION: D Outside of business circles, Fiorina is a relative unknown. She has only become a name among the political set in the past year or so due to her work with McCain.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: D It will be hard for her to appeal to blue-collar voters. Since she is a former CEO she would be cast by the Democrats as someone who doesn't care about the little guy. Her lack of a record on non-business issues would make it hard for GOP voters to get behind her.
ISSUE STANCES: INC Aside from being pro-business, we don't know anything about where she stands.
OVERALL: D Fiorina has a great personal story, going from working as a temp to becoming a very successful businesswoman. Unfortunately, her lack of an extensive record on issues GOP voters care about makes her a downright horrible choice for the spot. If McCain wants to pick a woman to steal some thunder from Obama, Palin is a better choice than Fiorina.

Rob Portman
EXPERIENCE: A Portman has been a congressman from Ohio, US Trade Representative and Director of the Office of Management and Budget. He would bring a wealth of varied experience to the ticket if McCain picked him.
NAME RECOGNITION: C In his home state of Ohio, Portman is extremely well known and was hugely popular in his congressional district, winning more than 70% of the vote in each of his campaigns. Outside Ohio, he is an extremely popular figure with the GOP establishment (he is columnist Bob Novak's pick for the VP spot). With the general public though, his name probably draws a blank.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: C Aside from being a relative unknown to the general public, Portman also has the "he worked for Bush" stigma attached to him. In congress he was known as a person who was willing to reach across the aisle, which would help McCain with independent voters some, but possibly hurt with voters who are wary of another moderate being on the ticket.
ISSUE STANCES: B Portman is great on tax reform, having sponsored several pieces of legislation reforming the IRS and tax code. His record in the OMB is one of being a "budget hawk", which is appealing to the increasing number of voters who are concerned with spending.
OVERALL: C+ Portman seems like he could be a good choice for McCain. While not well known at the moment, once voters found out more about him he could prove to be a great asset. However, like Sanford it is unknown whether he would be willing to take the job, as he left the OMB because he was tired of being away from his family so much.

Tim Pawlenty
EXPERIENCE: A Experienced in local politics, Pawlenty also served as Majority Leader in the Minnesota House of Representatives. He has been the governor of Minnesota since 2002.
NAME RECOGNITION: C Pawlenty is like a lot of people on this list in that he was only known by people in his home state or political junkies before the VP speculation began.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: C As governor, he hasn't been super popular, and I don't think he has what it takes to energize a lot of voters. His support of ethanol mandates and public financing for sports arenas may make him unpopular with small government voters. He did rid himself of one potential problem though when he cut his mullet.
ISSUE STANCES: B Pawlenty is the one person other than Huckabee that can energize the evangelicals. To me he is better than Huckabee though because he is generally for smaller government and lower taxes. He also is a strong voice in the anti-illegal immigration sect of the GOP, unlike Huckabee. It is also a plus that he doesn't go around pissing people off every time he gets in front of a microphone. Public financing for arenas and support for ethanol are the only things keeping him from grading higher here.
OVERALL: C+ Now that he has ditched the horrible haircut, Pawlenty seems like he could be one of the best choices McCain could make. While he is not a perfect GOP choice, he covers enough of the bases to be considered seriously. The X factor here is does he put Minnesota in play for McCain? I don't think he does and that's part of the reason I don't see him as getting the nod.

Charlie Crist
EXPERIENCE: A Crist has been active in state politics since 1992, serving in a variety of positions before being elected governor in 2006.
NAME RECOGNITION: A Crist is pretty well known to GOP voters and has a lot of national exposure thanks to being governor of Florida. He is one of the few people on this list that people would not go "Who?" to when his name is mentioned.
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS: C Speculation about his personal life aside, Crist does pose a few problems for McCain. His flip-flop on offshore drilling could prove troubling, and his unclear stance on abortion would not make him a popular pick with Christian Right voters.
ISSUE STANCES: C Crist is similar to McCain in a lot of ways. He's strong on crime, doesn't put "faith and family" issues at the forefront of his work and he is pro-business while showing an environmentalist streak. In an election where many voters are wary of McCain's conservative credentials, Crist does not ease those concerns.
OVERALL: B Crist can deliver Florida for McCain. But the real question is does he add enough to the ticket to help McCain get the traditional conservative voters to the polls in other states? I don't see him being able to bring the excitement that some of the other choices can.