Obama & McCain VP Updates

Posted by Ashish on 07.24.2008

The latest...

McCain

There is still a lot of buzz that John McCain may announce his VP pick later today. I'd be surprised if he did, just because it would be such an obvious symbol of desperation following the horrible week he has had. That being said, Mitt Romney remains the favorite. I've gone over this before but I think Romney would be a pretty bad pick. He does not connect well with voters. There just isn't getting around that. He had every advantage in the primaries (best organization, most money, best appearance, best credentials) and blew them all simply because he could not connect. Mike Huckabee could, which is why he came back from a big deficit despite having less money & organization to beat Romney in Iowa, and McCain could, which is why he came back from a big deficit despite having less money & organization to beat Romney in New Hampshire. Connecting with voters isn't something you can buy or learn overnight, just ask John Kerry and Al Gore. They couldn't connect and Bush could. Romney just can't.

McCain is not going to win Michigan, so picking Romney with that in mind would be silly and would also weaken his position in Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, and Georgia overnight by upsetting some evangelical Christians who still (unfortunately) hold biases against Mormons. Romney also instantly gives Obama a homerun response to any charges of flip-flopping or elitism because Romney is the posterboy for both and was effectively branded as such during the primaries by none other than John McCain.

I have to say that McCain is making a big mistake by not picking Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindal. Nobody has been picked so technically they still have shots, but Jindal said the other day that he will not be picked and Palin's name never even comes up anymore so it seems as if she isn't even being considered. It's too bad. Both have risks and drawbacks but at this point, McCain has to try to light a spark in his campaign. He has been unable to catch Obama despite outspending him and now will have to deal with the fact that the things that have happened this week (Obama having a flawless overseas trip, Maliki and other foreign leaders backing his withdrawal plan, him coming off more Presidential than he ever has, and so on) have greatly weakened his chances and are going to make it much harder for him to win the Iraq debate.

The #1 thing McCain needs right now is to get people talking about his campaign. Not how it relates to Obama, but just his campaign, period. Nobody ever says one word about McCain without it relating to Obama. He has become the default "other guy" and not someone who stands for something people are all that interested in. Sure he may win if Obama blows it, but can McCain win if Obama doesn't make some major mistake? No, because nobody is excited about him.

There are a tiny number of people out there who are truely excited about McCain's campaign. They may dislike Obama, and that is why they are supporting McCain, but for the most part, much of the Republican party would rather have someone else as their nominee and are supporting McCain because they view him as the lesser of two evils. That is NOT the way to win an election against a guy who has much of his supporters more excited about voting for him than they ever have been before. Just ask John Kerry how being the "other guy" worked for him in 2004.

Picking Palin or Jindal would at least get people talking about the McCain campaign. Women would get excited. People who consider the Republican party to be the party of old, rich, white men would be surprised to see Jindal or Palin. Either of these picks would help begin the process of rebranding the Republican party because the current brand is not strong. Even if McCain doesn't win this year, picking Palin or Jindal sets the stage for a new generation of Republicans who can help turn the party around and make it much stronger for 2010 and 2012. Picking Romney just sends a message that we're sticking with the exact same things we've stood for over the past eight years. We're seeing the Democratic party get rebranded before our eyes by Obama. I'm not talking about positions. Obama stands for virtually the same positions every other Democrat stands for. I'm talking about a new generation of faces to go with a party who can't be blamed for the failings of the past.

At some point, even the best of teams have to accept that they may need to bite the bullet and rebuild, and that's what the Republican party needs to do right now. Palin and Jindal are the two people to rebuild around. Both have shown that they can connect with voters while still sticking to conservative principals and that is why both are popular Governors in their states at a time when Republicans are struggling virtually everywhere.

McCain needs to shake things up. If he doesn't, he will lose. And picking Mitt Romney as his VP isn't shaking things up.


Obama

There isn't as much to say about Obama's VP pick right now simply because I don't think he will announce his soon. He may even wait until the convention.

Joe Biden and Evan Bayh have seen their stock rise a lot over the past few days, so much so that some are now saying they are the frontrunners. Kathleen Sebelius and Tim Kaine are probably right up there too.

I don't think Biden would be a good pick. I like Biden, he is a funny guy who knows his stuff and doesn't BS as much as a typical politician does. But in the YouTube age, the slightest controversial statement or bad word choice can end a campaign and Biden is always a risk to say something stupid. That being said, Biden is a REALLY good attackdog who never lets himself get pushed around, and that is one of the main areas a VP can impact an election.

Evan Bayh could be a good pick. I don't know too much about him but he would appease a lot of people in the Clinton camp, help Obama in Indiana which is turning into a swing state this year, isn't someone who is prone to saying and doing stupid things, is a safe pick in that he is a white male who isn't really controversial in any way, and is experienced and on a lot of committees. That being said, he did vote for the Iraq resolution, and that could be a sticky point.

Sebelius is someone Obama gets along with well and the two are ideologically in sync. She is also a popular Democratic Governor of a very red state, which shows she comes off well to Republicans and Independents. Having a woman on the ticket would also reinforce the change theme and further solidy women behind Obama. That being said, not putting a white man on the ticket would be somewhat of a risk for obvious reasons.

Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh are probably the safest picks, but it's pretty surprising that the so-called top four (which may not even be accurate) doesn't include someone with serious military experience. The new NBC/WSJ poll showed that the main thing voters wanted from Obama's VP pick was military and foreign policy experience. Biden has a lot of foreign policy experience but not military experience.

I really think Obama wants to pick someone who won't change the media narrative. I think his campaign is happy with how things are going right now and probably doesn't want to pick someone who will rock the boat. Sebelius might do that. Bayh and Kaine likely won't. Biden could since he has a big mouth.