New Polls 07.24.08: CO, MN, WI, MI, NH, PA

Posted by Ashish on 07.24.2008

A bunch of polls from key swing states...

A lot of polls today...

-- In Pennsylvania, Rasmussen has Obama ahead of McCain, 51% to 45%. Last month, Obama led by 4%, so his lead has slightly increased. Obama continues to look good in Pennsylvania. He has led in the last eight polls done of the state and the state's RCP average now has him up by 8.3%. Pennsylvania is a state Obama has to win and, at least right now, he appears to have a fairly strong hold on it.

-- In Michigan, Quinnipac has Obama ahead of McCain, 46% to 42%. Last month, they had him up by 6%, so it's a slight 2% drop. Obama has led in all six Michigan polls done since the primaries have ended and the state's RCP average has him up by 4.6%. Michigan (and maybe New Hampshire) remains McCain's best chance at flipping a state Kerry won in 2004, but it'll be tough. Michigan has been hard hit by the economy and Obama is beating McCain on the economy issue substantially.

-- In Colorado, Quinnipac has McCain posting his first lead in the state ever, 46% to 44% over Obama. While Obama has led in every Colorado poll prior to this one, his leads have usually been small, so it's hard to tell whether the change here is statistical noise or a real movement to McCain. Either way, it's obvious that this state is very tight. The state's RCP average has Obama at +1.7%. Colorado is pretty vital to Obama's plans, though he has spread himself out enough to avoid making any states "absolute must wins."

-- In Wisconsin, Quinnipac has Obama still up comfortably over McCain, 50% to 39%. Wisconsin doesn't really look to be in play this year. RCP's average of polls has Obama up by 10.7%.

-- We have two wildly different results in Minnesota. Rasmussen has Obama up by 13% (52% to 39%) while Quinnipac has Obama up by just 2% (46% to 44%). In situations like this, it's best to look to RCP's average and that has Obama up by 5.3%. It's also worth noting that Obama has led in the last 12 polls of Minnesota.

-- And in New Hampshire, Rasmussen has Obama up over McCain, 49% to 45%. It wasn't long ago that New Hampshire was looking like a state where McCain would be the favorite. That doesn't appear to be the case anymore, as Obama has led in the last four polls of the state.


Overall, we are seeing some slight movement to McCain in a few swing states, particularly in Ohio, Colorado, and Minnesota. In the case of Minnesota, the movement towards McCain probably isn't enough to actually put the state in any sort of serious play. We have also seen some movement to Obama in Florida, but his numbers for the most part are now stagnant. Overall, it's obvious that Obama's "post-primary bounce" has faded a bit and the race is probably slightly closer now than it was, say, a month ago. But the basic dynamics of the race remain the same -- that being that McCain still isn't in any sort of position to actually win, but that Obama has not completely put him away and "sealed the deal."

It would be nice to get some new polling out of Indiana, Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico.