Obama vs. McCain: Electoral College Breakdown 08.04.08
Posted by Ashish on 08.04.2008
Latest state-by-state look at how the electoral college map breaks down!
Since our last update on June 20th, we've seen a few major changes, the main one being that Obama's post-primary bounce has faded and the race has tightened slightly. The major dynamics of the race, however, remain unchanged -- this remains Obama's election to lose. In the latest map, I have Obama earning 309 electoral votes to 229 for McCain. Read on for my full state-by-state breakdown...
Last month in my electoral college breakdown, I had Barack Obama beating John McCain by a somewhat large margin, 306-232. This month, I have Obama beating McCain 309 -229. In last month's map, I had McCain losing every swing state except Florida, Nevada, Missouri and North Carolina. That left Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and New Hampshire for Obama. The big changes we've seen this month include Florida getting even tighter, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota all emerging as swing states, and major question marks remaining in places like Georgia, Indiana, and, to a lesser extent, Alaska.
As you can see from my new map above, the only change I'm making this month is I'm flipping Montana to Obama. I'll explain why below.
SAFE STATES
I'm currently listing the following states as "safe," meaning that I don't expect much if any campaigning to go on there and that they should be easy wins. I'm basing this on the most recent polling data coupled with state demographics and how the state voted in 2004.
OBAMA
California - 55 EV
Connecticut - 7 EV
Washington D.C. - 3 EV
Deleware - 3 EV
Hawaii - 4 EV
Illinois - 21 EV
Massachusetts - 12 EV
Maryland - 10 EV
Maine - 4 EV
Minnesota - 10 EV
New Jersey - 15 EV
New York - 31 EV
Oregon - 7 EV
Rhode Island - 4 EV
Vermont - 3 EV
Washington - 11 EV
Wisconsin - 10 EV
TOTAL: 210 EV
Wisconsin and Minnesota were listed as swing states last month but have been moved to safe Obama as polls are regularly showing fairly large Obama leads there, plus McCain seems to have greatly reduced his spending in both, a sign that he may be giving up on them. The only other four states in the above list that the McCain camp has made noise about competing in are Oregon, Washington, Maine, and New Jersey. But since that initial noise, McCain has stopped spending money in Oregon and Washington and has yet to really spend anything of note in Maine or New Jersey. We can therefore assume that he does not plan to try and flip any of those states.
McCAIN
Alabama - 9 EV
Arkansas - 6 EV
Arizona - 10 EV
Idaho - 4 EV
Kansas - 6 EV
Kentucky - 8 EV
Louisiana - 9 EV
Nebraska - 5 EV
Oklahoma - 7 EV
Mississippi - 6 EV
South Carolina - 8 EV
Tennessee - 11 EV
Texas - 34 EV
Utah - 5 EV
West Virginia - 3 EV
Wyoming - 3 EV
TOTAL: 134 EV
Compared to last month, I have removed Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Alaska from the list of safe McCain states, as we have seen polling confirm that all of those states are currently very close.
SWING STATES
The swing state map remains very large. Unlike 2000 and 2004, where the majority of action took place in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, this year we are seeing a lot of action in those states as well as Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, and Colorado, and to a lesser extent, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Georgia, North Carolina, and Indiana.
I am basing my predictions on a few different sources. The major influence is polling data, which I include below. More polling data can be found at RealClearPolitcs. I'm also factoring in the New York Times article on campaign spending as well as the Boston Globe article on the field organization of the two campaigns. The other thing I'm using to help predict are the regressions at FiveThirtyEight.com. And, of course, I'm also using my own gut and instinct to a certain extent.
As usual, I will only be factoring in polls done after the primaries ended, for obvious reasons.
That being said, let's look at the swing states one by one...
New Hampshire continues to lean Obama's way. He has led in all four polls done since the primaries have ended. McCain is spending here, but not all that much. I don't think either campaign plans to put too much into New Hampshire, and in the current climate, that probably favors Obama. Plus, demographically, the state seems to favor Obama as evident by the 538 regression which has Obama at +7.3.
Going back even further, Obama has led the last 10 polls of Pennsylvania. McCain is spending more in PA than anywhere else AND is outspending Obama in the state, but has yet to see any real movement. Obama continues to hold a solid lead in the state. Obama has a lot of advantages here, the main ones being that he set up a massive organization here from the primaries and also registered thousands of new voters during the primaries. Also check out the 538 regression which has Obama at +7.4.
Other than the strange Rasmussen poll that had McCain up 10%, which is probably an outlier since no other pollster has shown a similar result, Ohio seems to be leaning to Obama but can easily go either way. I'm giving Obama the advantage here mainly because all pollsters (other than Rasmussen) show Obama leading, and Obama has a huge organization in Ohio leftover from the primaries. Plus, Ohio is a state where the economy ranks even higher than normal as the #1 issue and Obama is doing extremely well among voters who view the economy as the top issue.
Michigan remains close, although Obama is posting leads consistently. He has led in the last seven polls done of the state. The state remains close and it is definitely McCain's best shot at flipping a blue state. Expect both campaigns to continue to sink lots of resources into the state all the way up until November. But because all pollsters show an Obama lead, because the economy ranks as the #1 issue even more than usual in Michigan, and because the state has somewhat favorable demographics for Obama, I'm keeping him the favorite.
If we go back to before Obama clinched the nomination, has led in the last EIGHTEEN polls of Iowa going back all the way to December of 2007. This is a state that is looking VERY safe for Obama and is by far his best shot at turning a Bush state blue. Obama built one of the greatest Iowa organizations ever during the caucuses and all the work his campaign did then is paying off now. Iowa is a state that I may move to safe Obama soon once a few more polls further validate Obama's lead. McCain struggled in Iowa during the Republican caucuses and is struggling to make any dent in Obama's lead there.
PROJECTED: OBAMA
Missouri
Research 2000 (7.07-7.10) - Obama 48%, McCain 43% (Obama +5)
Missouri continues to lean towards McCain, despite the latest poll showing an Obama lead. McCain has outspent Obama here and demographically, Missouri is probably closer to states like Arkansas, Kansas, and Nebraska, all border states, than it is Iowa and Illinois, also border states. To win, Obama would have to run up huge margins in the big cities and then keep the heavily Republican rural areas from being total blowouts. The state remains close, and Obama does have a shot here, but I'm keeping it in the McCain column until we see a few polls showing an Obama lead. It's worth noting that early reports out of Missouri indicate that Obama is building a gigantic organizational machine there with over 150 paid-staffers, so we'll see what kind of impact that has once it is fully operational (early September, probably).
Virginia remains a virtual toss up that could go either way. The McCain campaign is taking Obama's challenge here seriously and the state has been the target of big spending from both sides. As is the case in every swing state, Obama has a much bigger organization built (and it will get bigger) and that gives him the slighest advantage. With polling more or less showing ties, I'm basing my Obama pick on his organizational advantage and the fact that I think African Americans will turnout in record number, and since they will make up such a high percentage of the voter total in Virginia, that could result in a much better outcome for Obama than polls indicate. We saw this during the primaries as well with Obama doing better than expected in states with a high number of African Americans. Pollsters tend to consider African Americans as somewhat unlikely voters, but that probably won't be the case this year.
PROJECTED: OBAMA
North Carolina Latest Polls
Research 2000 (7.28-7.30) - McCain 47%, Obama 43% (McCain +4)
Civitas (7.14-7.16) - McCain 43%, Obama 40% (McCain +3)
As you can see from the polling, we are getting some very consistent results showing a McCain lead of 3%-5%. I think the state is a bit closer than that because as I explained in the Virginia write-up, pollsters are probably underrepresenting African American turnout since historically, African Americans turn out to vote at a small percentage of their total population. Based on the primaries, where African American turnout soared, and on the fact that Obama is the first African American to have a real chance at being President, it seems obvious to me that African American turnout will increase. So in states like North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, etc. that have a big black population, Obama may outperform polls as he did in Southern states during the primaries. That being said, NC still seems like it'll be tough for him to pull off. I think the state will remain very close until the end and Obama definitely has a shot at it. He also has a big organizational advantage in the state. But for now I'm keeping it in the McCain column until we see Obama get within 3% in the polls.
Florida remains all over the map although Obama has greatly improved his position over the past month or so, probably the result of him spending so much money in Florida while McCain has spent nothing. It's pretty surprising that McCain has allowed Florida to go from fairly safe Republican to total toss up by ignoring it completely in terms of advertising, but what's done is done. That being said, I do expect McCain to begin spending big in the state and once that begins, I think it will go back to leaning his way, though Obama does have a shot, as evident by the 538 regression which has Obama up. I'm keeping it in the McCain column for now.
Obama is looking strong in New Mexico. It's a state McCain is going to have a hard time in due to Obama's strength among Hispanic voters and due to the Hispanic community seemingly turning on the Republican party over the immigration debate. I don't really expect New Mexico to get much closer and, if anything, it may begin to drift even more towards Obama in the coming weeks & months. I think that New Mexico is right up there with Iowa as the two red states Obama is looking strongest in. The 538 regression also really likes Obama in NM.
McCain posted his first lead in Colorado in the latest poll. The state remains a virtual toss up. I think Obama is going to get a bit of a bounce in Colorado following the Democratic Convention since the local media in Colorado will be covering the convention to death. Colorado's also a state that demographically favors Obama, as evident by the 538 regression which shows a fairly substantial +4.5 for Obama. And Obama did lead in every Colorado poll prior to the latest one, so until we see a few polls confirming a McCain lead, I'm keeping the state under the Obama column.
This is another state that is going to be very close. Obama's numbers seem to be improving. That, coupled with the reports out of Nevada that Democratic registration has surged is a good sign for Obama, and the 538 regression also likes Obama, but I'm keeping the state under the McCain column until Obama starts posting more consistent leads.
Alaska remains closer than usual this year but Obama has a real uphill battle. The fact that Obama isn't really spending money in the state seems to indicate that his campaign doesn't really like their chances and doesn't like Alaska as an investment. The 538 regression also has the state pretty solidly McCain.
Obama is spending a lot of money in Georgia while McCain is spending none. So far, we have not seen any real evidence that Obama is going to make the state all that competitive. As I said earlier about Southern states, I think Obama will outperform polls due to higher than expected African American turnout, but that isn't going to wipe out an 11% deficit as the latest poll says. Obama is also going to need a solid performance from Bob Barr here, somewhere in the range of 3%-5%. The thing to watch here is can Obama consistently get within 5% in polls. If he can, he is probably within striking range if African American turnout soars and Barr holds his own. Otherwise, this state may turn into a major gamble for Obama that doesn't pay off. Don't expect McCain to spend any money or time here as it's probably safe to say that there is virtually no way Obama wins Georgia and loses the election, so it's not a state that makes sense for McCain to defend.
This is the only state I have changing from my preview last month. The main reason I am flipping it over is partly due to two polls confirming that the state is a toss up, along with the report that McCain is not spending money in Montana and doesn't really plan to defend the state. The state probably favors McCain going by demographics, as evident by the 538 regression, but the fact that he is letting Obama have the state to himself makes me think an upset is possible. There are a few red states that Obama is competitive in this year that McCain is ignoring and that is the exact thing that cost Hillary Clinton in the primaries -- taking for granted smaller states and letting Obama build massive unopposed organizational machines. This is a state to watch and one that I think Obama has a good chance at flipping.
PROJECTED: OBAMA
North Dakota Latest Polls
Research 2000 (7.21-7.23) - McCain 45%, Obama 42% (McCain +3)
North Dakota is similar to Montana but the demographics seem to favor McCain a bit more, and that is going to make this state tougher to tip over for Obama. If he wins anything out of the MT/ND/SD trio, it will probably be Montana. But still, the fact that Obama is competing here and McCain isn't probably will result in the state being closer than it should be.
Again, as you can see from the regression number, this state isn't as favorable as Montana. Once again, it will be closer than it should be because Obama plans to compete while McCain doesn't, but an upset seems unlikely. If Obama wins more than one state out of the MT/ND/SD trio, it probably means Obama won the election fairly easily.
Indiana may be the most interesting state to watch this year, and unfortunately, we only have one poll (though it's a stunning one). Bush won this state by over 20% in 2004. I examine Indiana in more detail here but to sum up, McCain plans to open ZERO offices in the state and does not plan to compete at all. Obama plans to open 30 offices and compete heavily. Obama also may pick popular Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as his VP pick, not to mention that the state shares a large border with Obama's homestate of Illinois. This is a state Obama can absolutely win, especially considering that McCain is ignoring it. The regressions hows it to be very favorably to McCain but the fact that the only recent poll we have shows Obama ahead convinces me that McCain is taking a major risk by ignoring the state. Obama being from a neighboring state, putting so many resources into the state, already having a big organization setup from the primaries, and possibly picking a VP from Indiana make this year the best shot Democrats have had at Indiana in a very long time. I'm not going to flip it to Obama until we see at least one other poll showing Obama doing well in the state, but it's certainly one to watch and could end up being one of the more important states in the 2008 election.
PROJECTED: MCCAIN
So here is what my final map looks like, once again.
CONCLUSION
So again, I now have Obama winning the election with 309 electoral votes to 229 for McCain. McCain is taking a major risk by ignoring North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and especially Indiana. It opens up 20 electoral votes for Obama and gives him a path to the nomination even if he wins the Kerry states but loses all the other swing states. Both Indiana and Montana are states to watch. We will also see how Florida responds once McCain wakes up and starts defending it. I suspect it'll solidy it in the Republican column. Also expect Obama to outperform polls in Southern states due to high African American turnout.
McCain can still turn things around though, particularly by flipping Ohio and Michigan. That would give him 37 more electoral votes and put him at 266 and back in the game, but it remains to be seen if he can do that. Michigan, in particular, may prove to be tough for him even if he stays close. McCain will also have to improve his standing with Hispanics, or risk losing New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, and therefore the election. If Obama gets over 60% of the Hispanic vote in those states, as he is basically doing now, he will be tough to beat in all three.
Like last month, the election remains Obama's to lose. I am seeing some recent momentum to McCain, so we'll see if that lasts over the coming weeks and whether that puts him in stronger position to close the somewhat large deficit he has in the electoral college right now. We will also see how polls respond as more people start to pay attention, particularly after the conventions in a few weeks. It's still very early and a lot is going to happen in the next three months that could have drastic effects on Obama and McCain's chances.
Posted By: Guest#8448 (Guest) on August 04, 2008 at 09:06 AM
Seems Obama has NOT won the election YET Ashish I bet you're probably already crying of Mc Cain being able to do the unthinkable in November.....
Like Rocky would state
It's NOT OVER Till It's OVER
Posted By: Mr Freeze (Guest) on August 04, 2008 at 11:17 AM
It's easy to make a case for your guy when you pick and choose the polls you want to use.
Posted By: JeremyL (Guest) on August 04, 2008 at 12:12 PM
funny how the AP reports two days ago that Obama and McCain are virtually tied in the polls
Posted By: Guest#9370 (Guest) on August 04, 2008 at 02:03 PM
National polls don't matter whatsoever. Obama knows he has to win the electoral college, so that's how he's tailored his strategy. If the popular vote awarded the presidency, he'd go about things completely differently (and still win, IMHO)
Posted By: poffo316 (Guest) on August 04, 2008 at 05:58 PM
STAY CURRENT