How Palin & Biden's Favorability Numbers Compare To Past VP Picks

Posted by Ashish on 09.05.2008

Fresh new numbers from Rasmussen, ABC, and Diageo...

ABC, Rasmussen, and Diageo all have new favorability/unfavorability ratings for Sarah Palin out, most of which came after her highly viewed speech on Wednesday. 538 has a fantastic article up breaking these numbers down in detail. I'll offer up a summary of those findings here.

Palin is very popular, no doubt about that. If we average her favorability/unfavorability numbers from the three polls above, they come out as 50.3% favorable/33% unfavorable, for a final result of +17.3% favorable (which is similar to both Obama and McCain's favorability rating). That is a good number when viewed in a vacuum. But when we compare her net favorability number to all other VPs selected since 2000, including Joe Biden, we find that she and Biden have the LOWEST net favorability ratings of any VP pick since 2000 (VP picks since 2000 are Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Joe Biden, and Sarah Palin).

In 2000, Dick Cheney's average rating was 46.5% favorable/18.5% unfavorable for a final result of +28% favorable, roughly 11% higher than Palin's. His favorable rating wasn't as high as Palin's, but his unfavorable rating was much lower, an indication that Palin's attack-laced speech on Wednesday drove up her unfavorables in addition to her favorables. It's why politicians try to avoid attacks during their introduction period. Obviously Cheney's numbers took a dive and in 2004, he was viewed more unfavorably than favorable, but we'll ignore that because of the added bonuses of being an incumbent.

But what about other recent VP picks? Joe Lieberman, Al Gore's 2000 VP pick, had a higher net favorable rating than every VP pick since 2000 -- 45% favorable/12% unfavorable for a final result of +33% favorable (16% higher than Palin). John Edwards in 2004 had 49.6% favorable/24.6% unfavorable for a final result of +25% favorable (8% higher than Palin). And what about Joe Biden, Obama's VP pick? 48% favorable/31% unfavorable, for a final result of +17% favorable, meaning his +% favorability number is the lowest of any VP picked since 2000, but less than 1% worse than Palin's.

But as you can see here, Palin's favorability rating is higher than every VP pick since 2000, but so is her unfavorability rating. The thing to remember though is that a big percentage of people who view her favorable or unfavorable are probably passionate about that view. That means that she will probably bring in votes for McCain, but she'll also cost him some votes. In just one week in the national light, she's already become a very polarizing figure with higher favorables and unfavorables than any VP pick this decade, again, the result of intense media coverage and her decision to go so negative in her first major speech. Attacks win over people on your side and make enemies of the people being attacked.

There is a general rule in politics -- favorables go down and unfavorables go up. When a politician is introduced, they usually start with high favorables and low unfavorables. People usually don't dislike people they don't know. As time goes on, unfavorables rise because people find out things they don't like. Obama is a perfect example of this. Last year, when Obama was relatively unknown, he had a very high net favorabilit rating (often +35% or so). Now, it's around +18%, still good, but cut in half. It's somewhat concerning that Palin already has such high unfavorable ratings, but a case could be made that so much negative information came out about her so fast that the entire process of people getting to know her, which usually increases unfavorables slowly over the course of months, was sped up and has already happened. The other view is that with her unfavorables starting so high, she could be up over 40% unfavorable by election day, which means she'd probably be a net negative to McCain. No way of knowing what will happen.

The other thing to remember is that the number of people who view Palin as not being qualified to be VP remain at record levels for a VP pick. In the ABC poll, 42% say she is qualified, 50% say she isn't (-8), compared to Joe Biden who 66% say is qualified while only 21% say isn't (+43), There is no way to know how this mixes with her favorable ratings. Do people who view her favorable still consider her unqualified and thus consider her a negative to the McCain ticket? Or do people who view her as unqualified like her personality so much that they will ignore their concerns about her experience? Different people will react differently.

So what's my point? More people like Palin than any other VP pick since 2000, but more people also dislike Palin more than any other VP pick since 2000. What the end result of this will be is anybody's guess.