Updated 411 Obama vs. McCain Electoral Map Preview 09.09.08
Posted by Ashish on 09.09.2008
How do things look now?
Obama - 273, McCain - 265
So where does the race stand now? We've seen a lot happen in the past 30 days. Obama picked Joe Biden as his VP, we got a pretty successful Democratic convention, McCain picked Sarah Palin as his VP, and we got a pretty successful Republican convention. The end result of everything, at this point, seems to be a slight boost for McCain nationally. However, all polling done in swing states since the end of the conventions indicates that the race remains basically the same.
I'm also going to go ahead and take two states out of play in terms of battlegrounds. With the Palin pick, Alaska is now probably safe for McCain. Georgia also seems pretty safe for McCain.
As you can see from my updated map, I'm now predicting a narrow Obama victory over McCain, 273 to 265, if the race was held today. It's important to remember that these polls, and my resulting electoral map, are done in the midst of McCain's convention bounce which could fade by next week.
* Ohio: The only poll out of Ohio post-convention is a Rasmussen poll that has McCain up 7%. Ohio is looking fairly good for McCain at this point. He is probably stronger in the state now due to the Palin-sparked Evangelical base in Ohio.
* Indiana: A post-convention poll from Howey-Gauge has McCain up 2%, confirming that the race remains close even after the Republican convention. The fact that Obama is not only spending money on TV ads here but also actively campaigning in the state (he was there this week) tells us that Obama's internal polling shows the state as competitive. I'm keeping it in the McCain column for now though.
* Michigan: A post-convention poll from Public Policy has Obama up 1% over McCain. The fact that McCain has not pulled a lead in the state even during his post-convention bounce is probably a good sign for Obama.
* Pennsylvania: A post-convention poll from Rasmussen has Obama up 2%. Again, if McCain can't pull a lead in the state right now, while his convention bounce is still kicking, it indicates that the state leans to the left.
* Florida: A post-convention poll from Rasmussen has Obama and McCain tied. McCain continues to be unable to build any sort of lead in a state most figured he'd be able to win fairly easily. Florida is a key state. If Obama wins Florida, he could lose Michigan AND New Hampshire and still win the race by just holding on to his safe states. I'm keeping it in the McCain column for now but I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama further improve in the state as McCain's bounce fades a bit. Florida is a state where Biden may be helping Obama, as Biden is very popular with senior Democrats and Florida has a lot. Also, there are a lot of reports about the very large Jewish community in Florida being concerned with the Palin pick due to her ties with some questionable groups (to Jews) like Jews for Jesus and the Buchanan campaign of 2000. McCain will probably not win the election if he loses Florida.
* Colorado: A post-convention poll from Rasmussen actually has Obama increasing his lead to 3%.
* Virginia: Two post-convention polls seem to agree on a narrow McCain lead. Rasmussen has McCain up 2% and SurveyUSA also has McCain up 2%. This is a state where Obama could overperform due to heavy African American turnout, but for now, we'll keep it in the McCain column.
None of the other swing state polls have complete post-convention polls. However, CNN had Obama up 15% in Iowa a few days ago (after the Palin pick) and there is no real sign yet that New Mexico has fallen into play. Same for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, three blue states that McCain is still attempting to get back in play. We also don't have post-convention polls from Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina yet. Nevada is a state to watch as it seemed to be shifting from lean McCain to lean Obama, probably due to how successful the Obama voter registration drives have been in the state and due to Obama hammering home the Yucca Mountain issue which is big in the state and which McCain is on the wrong side of.
And I'm going to provide this reminder in every one of these updates from now until election day: pay attention to the ground game! Bush won in 2004 because of a superior ground game. This year, Obama's ground game dwarfs McCain's. McCain's will get better now because he has an energized Evangelical community ready to work for Palin, but he won't be able to catch up completely in that area. There are also other wildcards. Will the Evangelical community turnout in larger numbers than pollsters expect? That would help McCain. Will the African American community, and young people, turnout in larger numbers than pollsters expect? That would help Obama. Getting these people to the polls relies on Get Out The Vote operations, and again, Obama has the advantage there. It's something to keep in mind when looking at a lot of these very close swing states like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, etc.
I'll be doing these weekly from now on as changes will be happening constantly.
If America votes in another republican we will have every right to carpet bomb the place.(Ok maybe just Alabama)
Posted By: The rest of the world (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 05:59 AM
The big story now is the 20% shift among white women toward the GOP. As I guessed, it gets no mention here. There's just no place to get complete, honest info any more.
Posted By: Shockmaster (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 09:38 AM
Interesting and helpful explanation of electoral college totals, especially since you've got Obama winning without Nevada, Missouri, Ohio or Florida. Wow! Thanks.
Posted By: Louise (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 10:40 AM
How many times have you said that his convention bounce is expected to fade? Who is saying that? I have yet to hear one analyst say that his 'bounce' is expected to fade. Most are saying this is now solidifying his conservative base and energizing them. They won't fade, the way Obama pulls even is by convincing a lot of moderates of his message, which hasn't really changed or shown anything new since roughly may.
Posted By: JP (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 11:10 AM
If we elect another fucking Republican, the rest of the world will have every right to shit on us at every opportunity.
It's like...fool us once, shame on you, fool us twice, shame on us, fool us three times, shoot us already and put us out of our damned misery.
Posted By: Ken B. (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 11:52 AM
"The big story now is the 20% shift among white women toward the GOP. s I guessed, it gets no mention here. There's just no place to get complete, honest info any more."
Curious, bringing up honesty. The GOP has lied so many times about Palin's record over the past 10 days that it would be comical, if not for the fact that they won't let the press talk to her unless they show their "defference" according to McCain lackey Rick Davis.
Defference? That's insulting. The media's job isn't to make sure the candidates (Democratic or Republican) are comfortable with the line of questioning. It's to QUESTION. If you want to be VP of this nation, we have every right to know what you stand for before stepping into that booth on 11/4.
And the church? If this story doesn't get the same amount of play as Reverend Wright, we know what kind of bias the mainstream media has. A black man angry about the way America has treated his breatheren is a lot less scary than people who think prayer cures THE GAY, God cares about where oil pipelines go, Jesus is our supreme commander in Iraq, and Alaska will be a safe haven during the Rapture.
Didn't we get enough of that over the last 8 years?
Posted By: Jevan (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 12:03 PM
This map falls in line to what I think as well, but with a twist: Colorado and Virgina I think are basically in the air. Obama leads by little under a point in Coloarado and Palin may play better there due to her stance on gun rights. Northern Virgina, notoriously liberal, is becoming a stronger voting bloc that I think will give Obama that state. I could also see a slight turn in PA as well towards McCain due to Palin's popularity. But overall the two states to watch are Colorado and Virginia. They could teeter either way and the election may be won on those states.
Posted By: Erik Schwob (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Convention bounces usually do fade. I think Mccain's bounce will fade when Palin gets scrutinized. People don't know her at all. No interviews, no debates, nothing.
As it stands now....Mccain's ship is full. The only thing that will happen is people jumping off.
Palin keeps lying about Bridge to Nowhere.....off go voters.
Palin's religious extremes get exposes...goodbye moderates.
Palin left Wasilla in debt.....goodbye fiscal conservatives.
Palin's extreme views on abortion get exposed.....goodbye women!
Factor in that Obama's electoral map doesn't require him to carry Florida or Ohio or Virgina......Obama can go for the jugular there.
Posted By: John (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 12:26 PM
I think it would be really cool if McCain won, just to shut you people up who rag on about half the country for being decent and having standards of behavior. I think a lot of the reason McCain is getting the support he is now is just to spite you arrogant Obama supporters and the media who think you're better than everyone else. If you'd shut up, Obama would probably pull ahead for good and win easily.
Posted By: Guest (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 01:07 PM
The ones voting for Republicans are a bunch of pussies. Just look at this great nation go to shit hole because of the Republicans.
Thanks Republicans for letting us get attacked in our country even though the Dumbest President(Bush) ever know about possible attacks by the CIA.
Oh, thanks for the economy and unemployment rates higher than 5 years.
Go OBAMA
Posted By: Joe (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 01:51 PM
it ain't gonna even be close!
Posted By: rubyrubyruby (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 01:58 PM
I wonder if Sarah Palin's werido anti-semitic church is gonna do anything for Flordia.
Posted By: Guest#7851 (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 02:11 PM
Wow - liberal dems can convince themselves of anything. All you USA haters who gives a rats ass about the 'rest of the world'. Will you all promise to move out of the USA after McCain wins?? Thought Not - you wussies.
Posted By: danny (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 02:29 PM
"Wow - liberal dems can convince themselves of anything. All you USA haters who gives a rats ass about the 'rest of the world'. Will you all promise to move out of the USA after McCain wins?? Thought Not - you wussies.
Posted By: danny (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 02:29 PM"
Danny, you're misunderstanding what's going on. Yeah, I love this country. But something's wrong with it. It's not perfect. Other countries are gaining on us financially and technologically while we sit on our lazy behinds. And we're in an economic housing mess that honestly, we had no right being in. It's patriotic to exercise the right of dissent. Take away that right, and this country turns into the same totalitarian state Danny seems to so vehemently hate. And now, you have someone in Palin who so wants to squelch the rights of anyone who doesn't agree with her?
Obama might not be perfect at all, but he's a hell of a lot better than the last 8 years of what we've had. If the last 8 years are what passes for a track record of leadership, give me Obama's track record of success any day.
Posted By: T8S (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 03:31 PM
Everything that I've read about the race according to astrology says that Obama is our next president. We'll see. Anyway, it doesn't matter who has the national edge in polls right now. What matters is the electoral college and Obama now leads McCain. In fact, according to CNN, not counting toss up states, Obama has a substantial 243-189 lead over McCain. If those projections hold true, Obama only needs 27 to win while McCain needs about 81 and I think there's no way one candidate wins all the battlegrounds. Also, keep in mind that we haven't even had debates yet. McCain is going to have a very dificult time defending the fact that he votes with Bush 90% of the time while claiming to voters that he's a maverick and that "change is coming" and Palin is going to have to defend her views on global warming, religion, and also defend the fact that she defended the bridge to nowhere when she ran for governor yet put a stop to it once she took office, which doesn't make her look like a reformer but just another politician. To Obama supporters, don't dispair today and to McCain supporters, don't celebrate today. It's only just begun. Stay tuned folks.
Posted By: Geoff (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 03:34 PM
Why should we have to move out of the country because we don't like the way it's going? Thomas Jefferson said that protesting the government is the most patriotic thing you can do.
Posted By: Mr. C. (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 03:38 PM
"I think a lot of the reason McCain is getting the support he is now is just to spite you arrogant Obama supporters..."
Wow. We decide who will lead our nation out of spite? That's a worthy offshoot of the Democratic experiment.
Obama supporters aren't "arrogant": they're genuinely frightened about what direction McCain and Palin might take this country.
In reference to the 2004 election, Bill Maher called it a "referrendum on boy's kissing". This year, there really is a referrendum.
Here's how it goes, gang: McCain is anti-choice. Palin is anti-choice even in the case of rape or incest. The next president will 99% sure get to appoint at least two Supreme Court Justices. With Thomas, Scalia, Roberts, and Alito on the bench, if McCain gets the presidency, a woman's right to choose will disappear. The abortion rate won't go down, because woman who feels they have to have an abortion will find a way to have them, but the right to chose will evaporate.
So here's your referrendum: Vote McCain if you're anti-choice. Vote Obama if you're pro-choice.
And danny? This isn't the wrestling section of 411. Leave the "love it or leave it" promos where they belong. We liberals who "hate America first", actually LOVE America. That's why we question it. It is a citizens duty to question his or her government, no matter which party is in control. You know, questions? Those things Palin won't answer?
Posted By: Jevan (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 04:28 PM
If America votes in another republican we will have every right to carpet bomb the place.(Ok maybe just Alabama)
I never understand why Alabama comes up whenever leftist foreigners want to Bash the U.S.
it's not the poor whitest of the states with a lot of poor whites
it's not the fattest of the states with a lot of fat americans.
it's not the reddest, where would that be, Idaho?
it's about as bible belt as it gets, but that's not even measurable.
it doesn't have the most military personnel or veterans
I guess you think "Alabama" and Forrest Gump comes to mind. I hear my numerous european cousins bring this up for their own guffaws, and constant smarmy "zings" from anonymous posters.
By fixating on Alabama, you only show that you're a stereotype yourself.
Let's get onto another stereotype--European posters reciting BBC attacks VERBATIM!
What a bunch of programmed little weasels!
Posted By: JimmyinD.C. (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 04:50 PM
If we elect another fucking Republican, the rest of the world will have every right to shit on us at every opportunity.
It's like...fool us once, shame on you, fool us twice, shame on us, fool us three times, shoot us already and put us out of our damned misery.
OR they could do what they've done Politically and Militarily and take a look at themselves and see if they're lacking. Most of our angry allies are coming around to our way of thinking, and our enemies have had to reevaluate what they thought was America's Achilles heel: Failure to complete a difficult task when faced with Casualties or severe pressure, which has been our hallmark since WWII.
The stuff we see now with Russia and China would be on a much larger scale had we done what we've usually done--turned tail and run home. Then it would be TOTALLY CLEAR you can't trust the U.S. to keep it's word for anything, and everyone would be forced to rearm and increase military expenditures.
It's the same thing that happens to a city or country when the Police can no longer be trusted to police. Everyone starts getting guns and works themselves into a "hoarding" mentality.
You see it in Iraq, Chechnya, the fall of Rome, Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina, post invasion Berlin, Haiti, Rwanda, etc. etc.
let's not forget about 99% of human history
Posted By: JimmyinD.C. (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 05:02 PM
The ones voting for Republicans are a bunch of pussies. Just look at this great nation go to shit hole because of the Republicans.
Thanks Republicans for letting us get attacked in our country even though the Dumbest President(Bush) ever know about possible attacks by the CIA.
Oh, thanks for the economy and unemployment rates higher than 5 years.
Go OBAMA
And how would he have known when Clinton
cut funding for human intelligence sourcing and allocated it to satelites because he wanted to comply with a "Carter Doctrine" directive not to deal with the scum of the world when collecting intellgence?
To be fair, Clinton was also snookered by M.I.C. folks who told him that he wouldn't need "knuckle draggers" anymore because the satelites 'could penetrate and turn' a terrorist cell without the controversy.
He was just naive, a little wet behind the ears, and too filled with liberal idealism....oh wait.
That sounds a lot like Obama!
Posted By: JimmyinD.C. (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 05:08 PM
"Wow - liberal dems can convince themselves of anything. All you USA haters who gives a rats ass about the 'rest of the world'. Will you all promise to move out of the USA after McCain wins?? Thought Not - you wussies".
Screw you Danny. Things are pretty fucked up in this country right now and we have every right to complain about the situation if we choose to do so. If we think things are good (like you might) we have a right to think so. But don't you ever insinuate that complaining about the present situation means that we hate the country. I love this country but I sure as hell don't like our situation right now. I don't like the fact that that there are racists. I don't like the fact that we don't have a working health care system that benifits all. And I don't like the fact that we're not helping the poor enough and discriminate against gays and lesbians and the fact that weed is not legal right now. And yet when I think about it, I would rather live here then anywhere else in the world. So don't you ever think that people hate this country just because they don't like the way things are right now. That logic makes no sense at all.
Posted By: Geoff (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 08:07 PM
I'm tired of the word liberal being turned into a bad word. The Republican "right" has been in charge of this country for 20 of the past 28 years. Here's some of what has happened:
- Ronald Reagan creating record deficits and watching inner cities being destroyed by crack.
- Iran-Contra affair. (I guess we were FOR negotiating with terrorists (Reagan) before we were against it (Bush-Cheney)
- Bush-Cheney engaging in unilateralism that cost this country respect around the world (Sorry to burst the Republican bubble but having respectable alliances around the world may actually, I don't know...make us safer...)
- Abu Ghraib, weapons of mass destruction (can't find em), ties between Iraq and 9-11 (can't find em either)...
- Walter Reed, homeless and psychologically damaged veterans
- New Orleans flooded. The answer? "Heckuva job Brownie"
- No child left behind... by ignoring science (stem cell research, (un)intelligent design, abstinence only ed, global warming)
- Economy: Create record deficits, a 6% unemployment rate, a housing disaster, larger gap between rich and poor.
I've barely scratched the surface. As someone currently running for President has said...ENOUGH!
Posted By: Tim (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Oh, Jimmy in D.C. The old GOP standby. When in doubt, blame it on Clinton.
You do realize that the reason we took out the Taliban in days when the Russians spent years trying to break Afghanistan was because of the military BILL CLINTON built, right?
And you do realize who was in charge and ignored memos like "Osama bin Laden is Standing Right Behind You" right?
And you do know that the president who openly stated "I don't know where he is. I don't spend that much time thinkin' about it" in reference to bin Laden is the doofus in the white house now, and not the straw man neo-cons love to blame everything on?
We want to talk naive and wet behind the ears? Bush openly wonders why the Iraqi people haven't thanked him for "all he has done".
Step into the mind of an Iraqi for a moment: Somebody invades our nation and deposes our dictator, many innocent civilians die. Not the best outcome imaginable, but maybe the best one available. But within six weeks the guy leading the invasion declares "Mission Accomplished", so we all start looking at our watches and waiting for these people to LEAVE. And they don't. For five years. As terrorists pour across our porous borders, and militias and gangs and sects get all the weapons they want, and thousands upon thousands of us are killed, and two million have to leave their homes or country, and five years later having still not left, the chowderhead running the invading country is expecting us to send him a big card we've all signed saying, "Thank You President You-Killed-My-Cousin?"
Yeah. Naive? That handle belongs to the bumpkin from Crawford.
Posted By: Jevan (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 10:36 PM
It seems to be a repeat of 1988. Another Professor getting drowned by the republicans. Where is the excitement that Obama created in the primaries? Democrats will now realize the price of not nominating Hillary.
Go Hillary against President McCain in 2012!
Posted By: shyamal (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Hey, shyamal, what's more important to you: Hillary Clinton, or the United States?
If it's the U.S., you need to be doing everything you can to make sure Obama gets elected in November. Then, in a worst-case scenario, gear up for a Hillary run in 2012.
But if sitting through 4 years of McCain seems like a reasonable trade-off so your pet favorite can run in 4 years instead of 8, then you're just as much a partisan hack as the worst folks on the right.
Obama is the leader of the Democratic party now. Democrats need to build him up, not piss and moan about a primary that ended 3 months ago.
Posted By: Jevan (Guest) on September 09, 2008 at 11:07 PM
Everyone on this post that has addressed Danny has given him a good dressing down. Frankly, you talk alot of my talking points. Excellent job. My mother served her country (civilian) for 31 years, My father served his country (military) for 22 years, I served my country for 25 years (civilian) all under DoD. Not to mention I was a military brat, military sibling and now a military mom. Oh, I am happy to call myself a Democrat. I think I have a right to say what I want and yes I am a true American. Republicans do not have a lock on God. If they did, why oh why did they applaud the biggest racist in their party, Jesse Helms. Everyone knows just how much he loathed blacks right up until the day he died. So, Danny, don't tell me I should move. I have every right to be here. Maybe you are the one who needs to move.
Posted By: AlindaFaye2000 (Guest) on September 10, 2008 at 03:01 PM
I think mccain will win minnestoa. i was that he was up like one point or something.
Posted By: Guest#7284 (Guest) on October 03, 2008 at 12:51 PM
why does McCain get Wy (03) twice
Posted By: michael kay (Guest) on October 27, 2008 at 06:27 PM
STAY CURRENT