New National Obama/McCain Numbers Reveal Plenty

Posted by Ashish on 09.17.2008

More signs that the McCain bounce has faded...

CBS/NYT: Obama 48%, McCain 43%

Compare these numbers to the last CBS poll, done right after the Republican convention, when they had John McCain up by 2%. That's a 7% swing in 10 days. When third party candidates are included, it's Obama 49%, McCain 43%, Nader 2%, Barr 1%. This poll seems to confirm what we've been seeing from the daily tracking polls -- that whatever national bounce McCain got from the Republican convention and the Sarah Palin buzz has now faded away.

Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had enjoyed a surge of support — particularly among white women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate — but the latest poll indicates "the Palin effect" was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest.

The poll also indicates that Palin has not really helped McCain with any group except Republicans and that McCain has lost ground among women since picking Palin.

But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin's selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among female voters in general. White women are evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women by a margin of 44 percent to 37 percent.

By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.

There are a few other noteworthy things to take away from this poll.

* 75% say John McCain picked Palin as his VP for political reasons, not because he thought she was qualified. Only 31% say Obama picked Biden for political reasons.
* The Palin pick/convention has excited McCain supporters, as 47% say they are now enthusiastic about him, way up from before, but still well below enthusiasm among Obama supporters.
* 46% said McCain would continue Bush policies while 22% said he would be more conservative than Bush. Obviously McCain's attempts to distance himself from Bush isn't working all that well.
* 57% said McCain is a "typical Republican" and only 37% viewed Republicans favorably.
* 50% said Obama is a "typical Democrat" but 50% viewed Democrats favorably.
* When asked who would bring change to Washington, 65% said Obama, 37% said McCain. So so far, McCain hasn't really sold people on him being a "change" agent.
* 60% said they trust Obama with the economy, 53% said they trust McCain.
* 60% said Obama "understands our problems" while 48% said the same for McCain.
* 55% said Obama would improve America's image around the world, less than 28% said the same about McCain.
* 61% said McCain shares their values, 60% said Obama does.
* 71% said McCain is ready to be President, just 48% said Obama is. This remains Obama's weakest area.
* 56% trusted McCain judgment on military affairs, 52% trusted Obama's. This is actually a huge improvement for Obama. McCain used to dominate on this question.
* 45% said they think Obama will win, 38% said they think McCain will win.
* 49% said they think Obama will raise taxes, a sign that Republican attacks on Obama raising taxes are working even though Obama has vowed to cut taxes for 95% of America.