New Polls 09.22.08: VA, NC, NM, MN, NV, PA, National

Posted by Ashish on 09.22.2008

Some big numbers out today...

Another good day of polling for Obama.

-- In Virginia, SurveyUSA has Obama opening up a 6% lead, 51% to 45% (they had Obama up by 4% last week), ABC News has Obama up 3% (49% to 46%) in their first poll of the state (and that turns into a 5% lead when third party candidates are included), and Rasmussen/FOX News has McCain up 2% (50% to 48%). The SurveyUSA poll represents the first time ever that a poll has had Obama over 50% in Virginia. These polls confirm that Virginia is incredibly close and the SurveyUSA and ABC polls confirm what other pollsters (except Rasmussen/FOX News) are showing, which is movement to Obama in the state. ABC News has Obama leading by 8% among voters who are 100% sure who they plan to support. Both SurveyUSA and ABC have McCain suddenly struggling among white women in the state. Now, we can't say for sure that Sarah Palin is the reason for his fall among women (ABC's poll says the economy is the reason), all we know is the timing matches up. But something has caused McCain to take a major hit among women in the state. SurveyUSA has Obama leading McCain by 16% among women. When you break it down to white women, ABC has McCain up by just 5% (Bush won white women in Virginia by double digits in 2004). McCain wins white men by over 30%. To see such a huge difference between white men and white women is amazing. Obviously this is a state that will be one of the few that decides the next President.

-- In North Carolina, Public Policy has Obama pulling into a tie with McCain (they had McCain up 4% last week) while Rasmussen has McCain's lead down to just 3% (they had McCain up 6% last month). Some figured that North Carolina was off the table once McCain picked Palin, but that is clearly not the case. The Public Policy poll is the first one to show Obama tied in the state since April. Public Policy also has Bob Barr doing relatively well in North Carolina, getting 5% of the vote. They are attributing Obama's improvement in the state to economic concerns. One major potential sign for concern for McCain is that both of these polls have Obama getting less than 80% of the Democratic vote. If he improves his support among Democrats by just 6% or so, he would be leading both of these polls. Obama has yet to lead in any North Carolina poll. This certainly explains why McCain is now shifting resources into North Carolina, as the state is very much in play.

-- In Iowa, Quad City Times has Obama up 14%, 53% to 39%. Clearly Iowa is no longer in play as most pollsters are now showing double digit leads for Obama in the state.

-- In New Mexico, Public Policy has Obama opening up an 11% lead in the state, 53% to 42%. Obama's lead is on the strength of overwhelming support from the state's Hispanic voters, but Obama is also virtually tied with McCain among the state's white voters. Like Iowa before it, New Mexico is starting to look like it isn't really in play anymore, as the last three polls of the state have had Obama up by 7%, 8%, and 11%. It appears as if the Palin pick has hurt McCain in New Mexico. 46% said the pick made them less likely to vote for McCain, 38% said more likely, and 16% said it made no difference. And Obama is only getting 79% of Democrats here, another sign that he still has room to grow. McCain is already getting 85% of Republicans. It's pretty stunning that Obama continues to do better in Iowa and New Mexico, two states Bush won in 2004, than he is doing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states Kerry won in 2004.

-- In Ohio, Rasmussen/FOX News has McCain holding on to a 4% lead over Obama 50% to 46%. Last week they had McCain up by 3%, so little change here. I remain convinced that Ohio will be a very tough state for Obama to flip. In the last week or so, Rasmussen/FOX News, SurveyUSA, Public Policy, and National Journal have shown McCain leads in Ohio while CNN/TIME, Big 10, and Marist have shown Obama leads.

-- In Florida, Rasmussen/FOX News has McCain up by 5%, 51% to 46%. Last week they had McCain up by 5%, so again, little change here. We are getting somewhat consistent polling now in Florida indicating a close race, but a slight lean to McCain. Now that he is spending money in the state and campaigning there, he should be able to solidify the state a bit.

-- In Michigan, Rasmussen/FOX News has Obama opening up a 7% lead, 51% to 44%. Last week they had Obama up 5%. There seems to be some signs that Obama is beginning to build a bit of a cushion in Michigan, as the last two polls done of the state have had him leading by more than 5% (9% and 7%). It would be huge for Obama if he can solidify his position in the state. Michigan, along with Pennsylvania, are the two blue states McCain is hoping to have some success in.

-- In Minnesota, Rasmussen has Obama once again with a comfortable lead of 8%, 52% to 44%. Last month, they had Obama's lead in the state down to 4%, so this is a solid improvement for Obama. I'd be surprised to see McCain sink much money into Minnesota at this point. He has a better shot at Pennsylvania or Michigan.

-- In Nevada, Suffolk has McCain and Obama tied at 46%. Nevada continues to look like a total toss up at this point.

-- In Pennsylvania, Mason-Dixon has Obama clinging to a statistically insignificant 2% lead, 46% to 44%, while Rasmussen/FOX News has Obama up by 3%, 48% to 45%. Last week, Rasmussen had the state tied, so there has been some movement back to Obama. Pennsylvania remains very tight. McCain is spending more in Pennsylvania than in any other state, and he has made up ground there over the past two weeks, but he has yet to pull out a lead in any public poll of the state.

-- In a new National poll, CNN has Obama up 5% among registered voters, 51% to 46% on the strength of Obama's standing with the economy (by a 52% to 44% margin, people say he is better than McCain at handling the economy). 47% said the Republicans are to blame for the current economic mess while 24% said Democrats are to blame. 20% said both are to blame and 8% said neither party is to blame. Among likely voters, Obama leads 51% to 47%. Last week, CNN had the race tied at 48%. According to CNN, McCain has lost ground among men and seniors. Obama now leads among men. 53% said McCain would continue Bush's policies, up 3% from last week. The poll also has Sarah Palin's unfavorable rating increasing 8% in one week to 35%, and 66% believe she and her husband should testify in the Alaska investigation into her firing of a state official, something they are both refusing to do.

-- And the daily trackers remain more or less unchanged from recent days.

* Gallup - Obama 48%, McCain 44%
* Diageo - Obama 47%, McCain 42%
* Rasmussen - Obama 48%, McCain 47%
* Research 2000 - Obama 49%, McCain 43%


Overall, this is a very good set of polls for Obama. New Mexico and Iowa continue to look solid for Obama. Minnesota seems to be shifting back to Obama after a week or two of tightness. Michigan seems to be solidifying a bit for Obama. Nevada remains a total toss up. And we are seeing movement to Obama in both Virginia and North Carolina for the most part. It could be worse for McCain, he could be losing his grip on Ohio and Florida, but he isn't yet. Both those states continue to lean his way. The other bright sign here for McCain is that Pennsylvania remains close.