New Polls 10.06.08: FL, VA, NC, CO, OH, MO, NH, PA, GA, National
Posted by Ashish on 10.06.2008
McCain's numbers go from bad to worse in a major way....
After a weekend of Sarah Palin claiming that Obama "pals around with terrorists," the McCain campaign continues to sink to new lows in the polls as this election is now quickly getting away from them. There are some downright panic-type numbers today.
-- In Florida, FOX News/Rasmussen has Obama opening up a 7% lead, 52% to 45%. What can you say about this? Every pollster is now showing Obama leading in Florida, and most by fairly comfortable margins. Forget every other swing state. McCain will not win this election without Florida, and right now he is falling behind rapidly. Remember during the primaries when the media and the Clinton campaign both claimed that Obama wouldn't be competitive in Florida? And a few months ago when the McCain campaign mocked Obama for even trying to compete in Florida?
-- In Virginia, SurveyUSA has Obama opening up a 10% lead, 53% to 43%, Suffolk has Obama opening up a 12% lead, 51% to 39%, and FOX News/Rasmussen has Obama up 2%, 50% to 48%. Whichever number you want to believe is bad news for McCain. If Obama is anywhere close to having a double digit lead in Virginia, the race is over.
-- In North Carolina, Public Policy now has Obama opening up a 6% lead, 50% to 44%. A Democratic Presidential candidate now has a 6% lead in North Carolina just weeks before the election. Unbelievable. Nothing displays the state of this race better than this poll. McCain will likely lose this election in a landslide if he can't even win a traditional Republican state like North Carolina.
-- In Colorado, FOX News/Rasmussen has Obama expanding his lead to 6%, 51% to 45%. Last week, they had Obama up by 1%.
-- In Missouri, FOX News/Rasmussen has Obama taking a 3% lead, 50% to 47%. Last week, they had McCain up by 5%! Missouri, which looked very safe for McCain just a few weeks ago, now looks like a state that is shifting quickly to Obama.
-- In Ohio, FOX News/Rasmussen is still showing McCain and Obama virtually tied, 48% to 47%. Most other pollsters are showing Obama leading in Ohio now, so this is one of the few halfway decent results for McCain. Of course, Ohio doesn't matter if McCain can't get a grip on Florida, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, etc. All Ohio would do at this point is keep McCain from falling below 200 electoral votes and a total blowout.
-- In New Hampshire, SurveyUSA has Obama opening up a 13% lead, 53% to 40%. We saw over the weekend two other polls that had Obama up by double digits in New Hampshire. And this is supposed to be the blue state that McCain has the best shot at flipping. Clearly this state is not in play right now.
-- In Pennsylvania, Morning Call has Obama up by 11%, 49% to 38%. Again, McCain will likely lose this election if he does not win Pennsylvania, and he isn't even close to being in position to do so right now.
-- In Georgia, Research 2000 has McCain up by 7%, 50% to 43%. Keep an eye on Georgia. Early voting there has African American turnout surging to 40% of the electorate. If African American turnout ends up topping 30% in Georgia, Obama could pull off a stunning upset in the state on election day.
-- Nationally, CNN has Obama expanding his lead to 8%, 53% to 45%. Two weeks ago, CNN had Obama up by 4%, so he has doubled his lead since then. NBC/WSJ has Obama expanding his lead to 6%, 49% to 43%. Two weeks ago, NBC/WSJ had Obama up by 2%, so his lead has tripled in that poll.
-- And all of the daily national trackers have Obama matching or reaching all time highs, another sign that, if anything, Palin's low road attacks over the weekend backfired.
So what is the overall takeaway from these polls? Simple. This election is getting further and further away from McCain by the day. It's not as if McCain is only struggling in one or two states. He is bleeding all over the map. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan seem to no longer be in play. Iowa and New Mexico fell out of play awhile ago. Now even Virginia and Florida are starting to look tough for McCain. North Carolina and Colorado seem to be solidifying behind Obama. Even Missouri is now shifting to Obama. Only Ohio and Indiana look like toss ups right now, and all those two states would do is keep some sort of cap on an Obama landslide. It is what it is, and what it is is horrible for McCain and getting worse by the day.
Honestly, the election is over. Obama is leading in every swing state except for indiana. In Indiana's case the obama ground game is HUGE compared to mccain's ground game and i think in the end the candidate with the better ground game will win. think about the millions of newly registered voters out there. they will deliver obama to the white house. i think Obama may even win georgia due to the huge african american turnout in early voting.
Posted By: guest (Guest) on October 06, 2008 at 07:21 PM
I do hope that this Barack Obama doesnt just turn out to be another politician who has people to answer to like every other one in history. Just because he is young and not white doesnt mean he isnt going to be the same as the rest.
Posted By: Call Me A Pessimist (Guest) on October 06, 2008 at 07:55 PM
Add MI to Obama, McCain already announced he's no longer going to campaign there and that he's given up on it.
Posted By: beezy (Guest) on October 06, 2008 at 07:58 PM
I think Hillary Clinton deserves some credit for the Florida numbers. She did campaign for him there the past couple of weeks. She did have support there during the primary when she won and after all the bitter MI/FL drama, her "Hillary Sent Me' theme probably resonated and help heal the wounds to Obama's advantage.
Just saying.
Posted By: LawrenceNY (Guest) on October 06, 2008 at 08:55 PM
Wow what's next, Texas? Kentucky? Bring on all 50 states!
Posted By: poffo316 (Guest) on October 06, 2008 at 09:06 PM
McCain is threatening to cut Medicare:
Jon has a meaty, substantive post about about today's Wall Street Journal's report that John McCain proposes to cut Medicare and Medicaid. I'll leave the substance to Jon for now, and point out that John McCain proposes to cut Medicare and Medicaid in an election year.
John McCain would pay for his health plan with major reductions to Medicare and Medicaid, a top aide said, in a move that independent analysts estimate could result in cuts of $1.3 trillion over 10 years to the government programs.
Posted By: Nick H. (Guest) on October 06, 2008 at 10:05 PM
The Bill Ayers thing has been all over cable news this evening, but I still have NO idea what his relationship was with Obama... It shows the desperation of the GOP.
Posted By: I equal ratings (Guest) on October 06, 2008 at 10:20 PM
We SHOULD stop with medicare, SSI, welfare. Nowhere in the Constitution are those advocated or even allowed. If you don't work, you should eat, and each according to his ability. Fuck all the handouts this country gives the lazy and worthless. That's why we're in the position we are.
Posted By: Jim C (Guest) on October 07, 2008 at 12:10 AM
The black vote is up in GA because the Dems are busing them to the polls before the Nov 4 crunch. Watch those numbers pan out closer to normal when most voters will turn out that Tuesday.
Posted By: GaDawg (Guest) on October 07, 2008 at 10:07 AM
STAY CURRENT