691,507 votes have already been cast. But the real interesting note here, though, is that roughly 36% of those who have voted early are African Americans. That is a monster number that, if holds, would ensure an Obama victory in the state. Basically, any number above 30% for African American turnout would likely result in Obama winning Georgia. Polls have been figuring that African American turnout in the state would be around 25%-27%.
So if it stays at 36% black, that would mean Obama needs 15% of the white vote and maybe less depending on how Bob Barr does, right?
Posted By: Geoff (Guest) on October 20, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Poor maths. He wouldn't need 15% of the white vote. He would need 15% of the rest of the voters who aren't black, assuming that after November 4th it stays at 36%. This also assumes that 100% have voted Obama, which isn't going to be the case. Obviously I want it to happen, but I will wait until I see it to call Georgia blue.
Posted By: Pete Thorn (Guest) on October 21, 2008 at 12:35 AM
In the primaries Barack said that the black votes will rise about 30% minimum. Later he thought he would lose georgia, mississippi and so on an pulled his staff away from there. I still dont know why he came to this conclusion. But often the first opinion people have is the right one.
Posted By: maz hess (Guest) on October 21, 2008 at 01:53 PM
STAY CURRENT