Final 2008 Obama vs. McCain Presidential Predictions (and Senate Predictions)

Posted by Ashish on 11.03.2008

Here we go!

Here we are, on the verge of history. Either we will see Obama win tonight and become the first African American President in U.S. history, or we will see McCain win tonight and Palin become the first female Vice President in history. We may also see a historical landslide, or we may see the biggest collapse of polling ever. Let's face it, if the polls are accurate, tonight will be a big win for Obama. There isn't a single pollster showing McCain within 5% of Obama right now and polling data points to Obama getting over 300 electoral votes. If McCain wins, Obama won't be the only one who goes down, the entire polling industry will go down with him.

All that being said, here's my final map.


Obama 362, McCain 176

And my popular vote prediction:
Obama 52%, McCain 46%, 2% Other

Topping 50% is symbolically important for Democrats. Bill Clinton never did it. The last Democrat to win the Presidential election with over 50% was Jimmy Carter in 1976. He got 50.1%.

Here are my state-by-state predictions.

Arizona: McCain 54%, Obama 45%, 1% Other
McCain should hold on to his homestate fairly comfortably when all is said and done.

Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, 3% Other
Obama has a big advantage in early voting, one that I think will be tough for McCain to overcome. Obama's ground operation in Colorado is massive and that should be enough to ensure his supporters get to the polls.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, 2% Other
I think the Obama campaign will have success in turning out big numbers of black and Latino voters and also getting the Democratic base out, and that's all Obama needs here to win. It's also important that over 40% of the electorate has already voted, and Democrats seem to have a significant advantage among those voters.

Iowa: Obama 56%, McCain 43%, 1% Other
Obama, if anything, could overperform in Iowa thanks to his massive, proven ground operation.

Indiana: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, 1% Other
I think the lack of a ground game in Indiana for McCain will cost him the state.

Georgia: Obama 48.0%, McCain 47.5%, 4.5% Other
Watch out for massive black turnout, as well as the Bob Barr factor. This one could be the shocker of the night. The fact that the RNC is now apparently up in Georgia with last-second robocalls is a sign that they are concerned about the state.

Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 49%, 1% Other
This one may end up being the closest state on the map. I'm going to give it to McCain mainly because I don't think Obama will win all the toss-ups, but make no mistake about it, Obama's ground game dwarfs McCain's here and that will be a big factor.

Montana: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, 5% Other
The Ron Paul factor could shave as much as 5% from McCain's total. And while the state has not released early voting numbers, I suspect that Obama's big ground advantage probably has resulted in him going into election day with a lead.

North Carolina: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, 3% Other
Obama appears to have a big advantage in early voting. That, coupled with big black turnout, a somewhat shaky Republican ground game in the state, and the massive Obama ground machine, may lead to another upset.

Nevada: Obama 52%, McCain 46%, 2% Other
Obama should rack up huge margins in Clark County (and appears to already have done so in early voting) and that will probably be enough to hold McCain off.

New Hampshire: Obama 53%, McCain 45%, 2% Other
This one shouldn't be all that close. Even if McCain overperforms, I don't think he has any pathway to win the state.

New Mexico: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, 2% Other
Big Hispanic turnout should be enough to put this state away for Obama. Plus Obama likely has a big lead in early voting.

North Dakota: McCain 51%, Obama 47%, 2% Other
The lack of Ron Paul on the ballot here is why I have McCain winning here but losing in Montana.

Ohio: McCain 51%, Obama 47%, 2% Other
Obama will probably underperform considerably in Ohio, as he did in the primaries, due to, um, "cultural" issues. Ohio remains one of the few states where the Republican machine from 2004 is still mostly in place. The one thing Obama has going for him here is that the state did have early voting and turnout seemed to be big, though we don't have any exact numbers.

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, 3% Other
It'll be fairly close, as I think Obama will underperform in the state slightly due to, again, "cultural" issues, but huge turnout in Philadelphia should be enough for Obama to hold the state.

Virginia: Obama 50%, McCain 48%, 2% Other
Big black turnout, coupled with Obama's huge ground operation and McCain's lack of one, will probably get Obama over the finish line, but it'll probably be really close.


The rest of the states aren't too much in doubt.

McCain:
* Alaska
* Alabama
* Arkansas
* Idaho
* Kansas
* Kentucky
* Louisiana
* Nebraska
* Oklahoma
* Mississippi
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Tennessee
* Texas
* Utah
* West Virginia
* Wyoming

Obama:
* California
* Connecticut
* D.C.
* Delaware
* Hawaii
* Iowa
* Illinois
* Massachusetts
* Maryland
* Maine
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* New Jersey
* New York
* Oregon
* Rhode Island
* Vermont
* Washington
* Wisconsin


As for the Senate races, I think the Democrats will fall one short of 60, scoring eight pick-ups to get them up to a 59 seat majority. Here are my predictions for pick-ups..

Democratic Pick-Ups: +8
* Alaska: Begich (D) beats Stevens (R)
* Colorado: Udall (D) beats Schaffer (R)
* Minnesota: Franken (D) beats Coleman (R)
* New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) beats Sununu
* New Mexico: Udall (D) beats Pearce (R)
* North Carolina: Hagan (D) beats Dole (R)
* Oregon: Merkley (D) beats Smith (R)
* Virginia: Warner (D) beats Gilmore (R)

Republican Pick-Ups: 0
* None

The Georgia race between Martin and Chambliss may end up going into a run-off. If it does, it'll have a lot riding on it since it would represent the Democrats' potential 60th seat.