In these tough economic times when the U.S. has run up an obscene amount of debt, it's depressing how unserious our elected officials are about reducing the size of government. The mere suggestion of slowing the growth of government spending (not even actual cuts) is typically described as catastrophic, while any proposals to cut actual spending are so tiny they're basically meaningless.
The latest example of the "cuts so tiny they're meaningless" genre is the Welfare Integrity Now for Children and Families Act, which the U.S. House passed just last week by the overwhelming vote of 395-27. When a bill has that much bipartisan support and contains the phrase "Children and Families," it must be rubbish. And in fact, the purpose of the WIN for Children and Families Act (barf) is to prevent welfare recipients from spending their benefits in strip clubs, casinos, or liquor stores. Because apparently that's going to put a dent in that $15 trillion debt. Christ.
Rick Santorum blew out Mitt Romney tonight, beating him in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri. Some thoughts:
* It's been said but needs to be said again: Romney is one of the weakest Republican frontrunners in history. The guy has a massive financial advantage, has the entire Republican establishment supporting him, has the biggest Super PACs supporting him, has what is supposed to be the biggest ground game in the Republican primary, and has the sniff of inevitability, and yet he trips all over himself every chance he gets. How does a frontrunner in his position finish THIRD in Minnesota?
* Romney can make all the excuses he wants about getting his ass kicked so badly in Missouri, but the fact is, in a bellwether swing state in the heart of America, where we finally got a glimpse of what a one-on-one race would be like since Gingrich wasn't on the ballot, Romney got absolutely destroyed. There is no way to spin that. Yes, Romney didn't campaign there, but Santorum didn't really do much there either. Romney dominated in Colorado in 2008 and got beat there this time around. He outspent Santorum in Minnesota and finished third. These aren't the types of results the frontrunner usually sees at this point in the process.
* It was an embarrassing night for Romney who will now again have to go ultra negative with gobs of money in the next few states to regain his footing. It's starting to become pretty clear that Romney can't win unless he floods a state with money and negative ads. He won't have the luxury to do that in the general election.
* Romney isn't a guy who wins because people actually want to vote for him. He wins wherever he outspends his opponents by huge amounts and runs non-stop negative advertising. Every time he has tried to let his message and his personality speak for themselves, he has lost. Again, he won't have a money advantage in the fall. How does he plan to win then? He better come up with something.
* This was the first night since Romney's "poor" comment that we got actual votes -- the results seem to indicate that the comment hurt Romney very badly. Expect the Obama campaign to play that comment on ads non-stop during the general election.
* Newt Gingrich had an embarrassing night, losing everywhere and finishing dead last in Minnesota. Because the Republican electorate is so divided and so unhappy with all these candidates, he'll still have a chance to rebound when we get to more Southern states. But it's hard for him to paint himself as the main Romney alternative now. The reality is that Gingrich has now lost 7 out of 8 states. Santorum can now claim four wins (IA, MO, MN, CO), more than Romney's three (NH, FL, NV).
* Santorum's victory speech was his strongest yet. Unlike Romney, who badly needs a new stump speech, Santorum actually has some heart in his speeches. He has a populist tone and tries to connect with people. Romney's been repeating basically the same speech for so long now that he seems to run through the words without any emotion.
* Santorum has the highest favorability rating of any of the Republican candidates which is important to note going forward, because that's the number that will probably result in him doing better than Gingrich, who has seen his favorability sink in the last few weeks.
* The problem for Santorum is that he will now face an onslaught of attack ads from Romney. Gingrich has learned how dirty Romney's campaign plays, and Santorum will too.
* Turnout, again, was down everywhere compared to 2008. This Republican primary process seems to have wrecked the Republican enthusiasm that existed in 2010 and after. Turnout has been down in most of the states thus far, a sign that these candidates aren't getting Republican voters out to the polls in big numbers. John McCain was getting bigger turnouts in the Republican primary in 2008 at this point. These turnout numbers indicate a major lack of enthusiasm in the party behind Romney, who is the face of the party right now. Just how bad has turnout been? Obama turned out half as many voters by himself in an unopposed caucus with no campaign in Colorado as all the GOP candidates combined.
None of this should really impact reality -- Romney is very likely to be the Republican nominee. What it does impact is that this race will drag on longer, more of Romney's flaws will continue to get exposed, and these candidates will continue to attack each other to the delight of the Obama campaign. The infighting among Republicans has done damage, as we have seen in Obama's rising approval ratings and the fact that Obama is now defeating Romney in virtually all the general election polls that have come out in the last few weeks.
The other thing to note is that Romney's inability to wrap things up may force him to go further to the right in order to appease Republican primary voters and secure the nomination. Moving to the right will hurt him greatly in the general election, and that is what Obama is hoping for -- to get Romney locked in on some far-right positions that he can then use against him in a few months.
We now have a few weeks before voting resumes in Michigan and Arizona on the 28th (Maine is on Saturday, but unlikely to get a lot of media attention due to how small a caucus it is -- expect Ron Paul to win), giving these candidates time to tear each other down more. Expect Romney to return to the formula that won him Florida -- outspending everyone by millions and saturating the markets with attack ads. Santorum should get a fresh boost of momentum and money while Gingrich really stumbled badly. How he responds will be interesting, mostly since it's impossible to predict what Gingrich will do. Romney is the favorite to win Michigan and Arizona, but we'll see how polls change following Santorum's three wins.
Public Policy has Rick Santorum in the lead in Minnesota, 33% to 24% over Mitt Romney with Newt Gingrich at 22%, while they have Romney ahead comfortably in Colorado, 37% to Santorum's 27%. Missouri is also tonight, and Gingrich isn't on the ballot there, setting up a likely Santorum win, though the state has no delegates.
If Santorum does win Minnesota and Missouri tonight, and come in a strong second in Colorado, it will definitely give him a boost and force the media to give him more attention. That works out pretty well for Romney, since the only thing at this point that can hurt him is Gingrich or Santorum dropping out and letting that conservative vote unite around one candidate. If both remain somewhat viable, they will continue to split the vote and create easier paths of victory for Romney.
That being said, expect a fresh round of questions about Romney's electability tonight if he loses two states. At this point, the media has already more or less declared him the nominee, and so each time he fails to deliver and win states, he'll face scrutiny.
The new ABC/Washington Post poll out today has President Obama up over Mitt Romney, 51% to 45%. Perhaps the most interesting number from within the poll:
By better than 2 to 1, Americans say the more they learn about Romney, the less they like him. Even among Republicans, as many offer negative as positive assessments of him on this question. Judgments about former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who denounced Romney on Saturday night in Nevada, are about 3 to 1 negative.
Some interesting new poll numbers from Public Policy, particularly in Minnesota where they actually have Rick Santorum leading. Somebody better stop Romney in Minnesota, because he is rolling in Colorado and if he wins both, this thing will wrap up quicker than Newt Gingrich is letting on.
* Minnesota: Santorum 29%, Romney 27%, Gingrich 22%, Paul 19%
* Colorado: Romney 40%, Santorum 26%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 12%
Mitt Romney won big in Nevada. Perception is starting to set in that Romney will be the nominee, the main question now is if Newt Gingrich actually stays in until the end regardless of what happens going forward. It's going to become harder and harder for him to turn out his supporters and raise money as Romney wins state after state. Gingrich doesn't have a state that is favorable to him for awhile, and he isn't even on the ballot in Missouri where he would have done well. He'll have to do really well in places like Minnesota, and by really well, I mean actually win, because every Romney win will further set in the notion that Romney has everything wrapped up.
Gingrich will stay in the news because he will probably continue his all out assault on Romney, and the media loves that, but ultimately he isn't doing much other than potentially hurting the potential nominee of his party. Still though, Romney has proven to be very gaffe-proned, so it does make some sense for Gingrich to stay in and hope that Romney shoots himself in the foot. He won't have until the convention to do that though. He can only really survive a few more blowout loses before everyone tunes him out.
Newt Gingrich is being sued by a Florida man who claims Gingrich roughed him up outside the Florida Republican Presidential Primary earlier this week because he was carrying a sign that supported another candidate.
Edward Dillard filed the lawsuit yesterday in the US District court in Florida. He said he was minding his own business when Gingrich and his wife came to the polling place. Newt and Callista came up to him and shook his hand. Dillard was standing outside of a canopy set up with a microphone stand at the time.
Dillard says that Newt noticed his Ron Paul shirt and "immediately turned his back" to him and went to other people. He then claims that several of Gingrich's security came to him and tried to "intimidate him into moving from the spot."
Dillard was wearing open-toed sandals at the time and says one of the agents "lifted his heeled shoe over Dillard's right foot and dug the back of it into his skin, twisting it side-to-side like he was stomping out a cigarette, causing a fracture to Dillard's right foot."
After a minor fight, he says the guy who stomped on his foot then shouted, "Everyone step on his toes!"
Dillard is suing Gingrich, the campaign and the security firm for assault and battery and seeking unspecified damages. Gingrich's campaign has not commented.
Donald Trump has made his endorsement for the Republican nomination for president. Trump announced in Las Vegas that he was giving his endorsement to Republican front-runner Mitt Romney.
"It's my honor--real honor--and privilege to endorse Mitt Romney," Trump said. "Mitt is tough. He's smart, he's sharp. He's not going to allow bad things to continue to happen to this country that we all love. So Governor Romney, go out and get ‘em. You can do it."
Romney, who was present for the endorsement, followed that with, "There are some things that you just can't imagine happening in your life. This is one of them. Being in Donald Trump's magnificent hotel and having his endorsement is a delight."
Trump later called into TMZ Live and said he would accept a position in Romney's cabinet if offered and would do a better job than those in place.
"I love what I do ... I love the real estate business, I love building things ... but I love the country even more ... if i can do anything to help, whether it's [under] Mitt Romney or anybody else ... I would love to do it ... if it's good for the country." he said. He added, "I will say this ... I'd rather have me negotiating against China, against OPEC and against lots of other people that are laughing at how stupid we are ... I would rather have me negotiating for us than the clowns that are negotiating right now."
If this poll is accurate, and we'll need to see others to confirm, perception seems to be setting in among GOP voters that Romney will be the nominee. The fact that Donald Trump, a supposed Tea Party figure, endorsed Romney over Gingrich, pretty much says it all. Gingrich will have to win a state before Super Tuesday, otherwise it's hard to see how he will justify staying in.
Even though none of the candidates running for president (who have a chance of winning) want to talk about it, the U.S. federal government's $15 trillion debt is eventually going to necessitate those draconian cuts we keep hearing we can't bear. At some point we're going to have to bear them whether we like it or not, but in the meantime it's fun to imagine a world in which these useless government agencies don't exist and we don't have to deal with their officious, nannying proclamations anymore.
Take the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Given what we know about government naming conventions, we can be certain that whatever the CDC does, it has nothing to do with disease control or prevention. In fact, the most notable initiatives the CDC has undertaken recently have been to grossly misinform the American public about the amount of binge drinking and sexual violence that goes on here.
Mitt Romney basically whooped Newt Gingrich in Florida tonight, a fresh reminder of how much money and negative ads matter. Romney outspent Gingrich 5-to-1 in the state, dropping about $17 million in the state, mostly on negative ads. He also was much more aggressive and campaigned/debated with some fire behind him. It all worked.
Gingrich is vowing to stay in the race at this point, although you have to wonder where he turns this around. Yes, this has been an unusually fluid Republican primary electorate and yes, Gingrich has been pronounced dead before only to come back, but Gingrich has fundamental issues outside of Southern states. He is getting slaughtered among women, evidence that his ex-wife's charges HAVE hurt him, he has a huge money disadvantage, he isn't on the ballot in several states, he has far less debates to cling to going forward, and his ground game is getting dwarfed by Romney everywhere. To stay relevant and not feed the growing media perception that this race is all but over, Gingrich will have to win somewhere before Super Tuesday. And even then, the question here is more can Gingrich stay in it until the convention and still get treated like a legitimate candidate. Winning the nomination seems unlikely for Gingrich at this point.
The reality is, Gingrich has two opponents -- Romney and the Republican party. He is also being bullied by Romney to the point where he seems to spend most of his time complaining about being attacked. He is going to have to develop a long-term strategy. He seems to just go from whim to whim while Romney follows through on an actual strategy.
Romney's campaign continues to be stronger than the candidate, a lesson the Obama campaign I'm sure has taken note of. Romney's campaign is extremely organized, focused, and relentless, making up for a lot of the flaws in Romney himself. When they decide to attack, they do so in a way that has, thus far, worked every time in the Republican primary. The question now is, does he go back to focusing on Obama or does he keep attacking Gingrich as to avoid letting him rise from the dead again. It's a tough decision because continued attacking of Gingrich will keep the party from unifying and keep Gingrich in the news, but will prevent further surprises in the primary contest. Focusing on Obama and trying to act above it could set up what we saw in South Carolina where people thought Romney was playing it safe.
Romney's loose use of facts in negative ads is something the Obama campaign will need to be ready for. As Gingrich is learning the hard way, Romney seems pretty comfortable with borderline and even outright lies about his opponent in his ads. Of course, he won't be able to outspend Obama in the media war, so getting away with those types of ads will be more difficult. Against Gingrich, they've been very effective because, again, Romney is outspending Gingrich dramatically. Over attacking and use of negative ads can backfire though, something Romney will need to keep in mind going into the general against a much tougher opponent in Obama.
Overall, Romney was at his best in Florida. He was aggressive and came off like a candidate with something to prove, a major contrast to how he came off before. The result -- a commanding win in Florida, the biggest state yet of the primary. The nomination is once again Romney's to lose.
* Ron Paul was last. He'll do better in the smaller caucus states.
What started as a close race looks to have turned into a blow out. The latest Florida polls today show Mitt Romney expanding his lead over Newt Gingrich (except an InsiderAdvantage poll which seems to be an outlier since all other polls show different results), once again showing how important debates are to this year's Republican primary field. I'd expect this trend to continue in the general election -- debates will be huge.
Gingrich had all the momentum up until Romney crushed him in both debates last week, leading to a complete 180 in the polls. The upcoming schedule is not favorable to Gingrich, so it's hard to see where he will turn this around, especially now that Romney has sort of figured out how to debate Gingrich (bully him).
I'd expect a solid double digit win for Romney tomorrow night that will really deliver a blow to Gingrich and further feed the perception that Romney is the presumptive nominee. Gingrich has major issues in that he is almost entirely dependent on debate performances, is being outspent, and is going up against Romney and the Republican establishment.
Newt Gingrich is being sued for using the Survivor song "Eye of the Tiger" on his campaign trail without having the rights to use it. TMZ reports that Rude Music Inc., a company owned by a member of the band, filed suit today in Illinois alleging that Gingrich has been using the 1982 song at his political events since 2009. The lawsuit claims he used it at the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2009 through 2011, plus the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in 2010.
Rude Music says that Gingrich also used the song at a campaign event in Doylestown, Pennsylvania, noting, "Mr. Gingrich entered the packed Moose Lodge for a speech as the song 'pulsed,' according to the the Newt 2012, Inc. website." The company is also suing the American Conservative Union, who it says has used clips of Gingrich and the song. They're asking for an injunction against Gingrich using the song as well as unspecified damages.
The song was made famous in Rocky III and was a huge hit in 1982. Check out a clip of Newt using the song below:
Lots of new polling data shows Newt Gingrich sinking following back-to-back debates where he and Romney swapped places, with Romney becoming the aggressor and fighter that Gingrich used to be, and Gingrich becoming the timid, passive candidate that Romney used to be.
It's probably too late for Gingrich to turn this around in Florida. His silver lining is he continues to poll well nationally when matched up against Romney. The problem for him though is that he basically has no national campaign, while Romney does. He also seems to have been exposed a bit in terms of his debating skills -- if he doesn't get an opportunity to blast the moderators, he seems to struggle to make traction. He also doesn't seem to be handling Romney's new, more aggressive approach very well, as he got baited into making some very undisciplined attacks on Thursday that Romney was ready for.
And meanwhile, the economy somewhat improving, the State of the Union address, and the constant exposure of the Republican candidates all seem to be helping President Obama's numbers in head-to-head match-ups against Romney and Gingrich.
These numbers are a reminder of how dangerous a political candidate Obama remains despite the economic woes of the country. All data indicates that independents have not been impressed with the GOP's field of candidates, and that is going to be a major factor.
* Mitt Romney seems to have figured Newt Gingrich out. Gingrich's "gimmick" in these debates is to make over-the-top, counter-aggressive statements that draw big applause lines and dominate highlights. For the past two debates, Romney has been the one doing this first, putting Newt in a defensive position right away. Romney did not hesitate at all when he got a chance to go after Gingrich, even ignoring an attempt by Gingrich to call a "truce." Unlike in previous debates, it was Romney who came off as the alpha male tonight. He came off as the more fiery, aggressive candidate.
* Romney had answers for most of Gingrich's attacks, such as the attack about Romney owning stock in Freddie and Fannie. For all his weaknesses as a candidate, one thing Romney is very strong on is being prepared. He is almost always prepared for attacks, aside from the tax return fiasco last week.
* Gingrich just seems to be wilting under the pressure of having to always deliver such blockbuster debate moments. Erick Erekson on CNN said it best: "live by the debate, die by the debate." Romney has changed strategy and was successful in baiting Gingrich into moments that he hasn't looked good in. We're seeing why a campaign has to be built on more than just buzz worthy debate highlights, because after awhile, attacking the moderator stops working.
* Gingrich may not be as good a debater as we all thought. He has been exposed dramatically in the last two debates and is starting to look like a guy who, if he can't get a cheap shot in on the media, seems pretty lackluster in terms of connecting with the audience or delivering a moment that resonates.
* Rick Santorum had another strong debate, particularly on the exchange over healthcare, but at this point it just seems as if most GOP primary voters have tuned him out. Same for Ron Paul, who was his usual self and had some good moments.
* Pretty amazing that Gingrich did not pounce on Romney for getting caught in a straight up lie about one of his TV ads. Gingrich, for whatever reason, has been letting many opportunities to attack aggressively pass him by.
* I'd expect this debate to more or less wrap up Florida for Romney. Gingrich's poll numbers rely directly on debate performances, and he has now failed to create a buzz worthy moment in the last two. Romney, on the contrast, was the candidate who came off as the more aggressive, fighter. Gingrich entered the debate falling in the polls and he'll probably continue to do so leading up to Tuesday.
Three new polls out today show that Newt Gingrich's momentum is now gone and he is actually falling in the polls as Mitt Romney has regained the lead in Florida.
Just as fast as he rose, Gingrich is sinking again. I said in my debate analysis on Monday night that Gingrich played it way too safe at the last debate and that it would cost him, and it has. He is a candidate that relies almost exclusively on zippy, anger-filled, buzz-worthy debate moments to keep him afloat. Without them, his support erodes quickly. He tried to act like the frontrunner on Monday, and as I've been saying, he is not in position to do that. He always has to act like the angry rebel. One "normal" debate from him and his support sinks, as these polls again indicate.
With that said, he'll need another noteworthy debate performance tonight to reverse the shift to Romney in time for Tuesday's vote, otherwise he won't win.
And in some other key polling data, here are the numbers the Obama campaign is counting on: Romney and Gingrich both have negative favorability ratings (31% view Romney positively, 36% negative while 26% view Gingrich positively and 48% view him negatively), while Obama's remains positive (50% view him positively, 39% view him negatively). That likability advantage will be big in the general election.
One recurrent theme of government regulations intended to protect public health is they have no noticeable impact on public health. But they make a lot of busybodies feel good about themselves for forcing restaurants to put calories on their menus, or banning smoking in private businesses, or banning soda in public schools, even though such measures don't accomplish anything.
The latest example comes from Los Angeles, where the city council recently passed an ordinance requiring adult film performers to wear condoms. Although the local AIDS activists who pushed for the law seem to think it will protect porn actors, it will probably only result in driving the porn business out of L.A.
CNN and Quinnipac both have Romney and Gingrich in a virtual tie in Florida, 36% to 34%. Should be interesting to see how the final few days in Florida play out. Tomorrow night's debate will be a crucial one, particularly for Gingrich who relies on debates for momentum.
Ron Paul is last in both polls, behind Rick Santorum.
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