Curveballs and Sliders 05.03.06: The Best Pitcher of Our Era is..........
Posted by Jared Marcus on 05.03.2006
The debut edition of the mailbag and we find out who the best pitcher of the last 20 years is. Plus the rest of the top 10 as well as 10 active pitchers who could someday find themselves among the elite.
Hello once again everyone and thank you all so much for all the congratulations after my debut column last week. I wish that I could include all of the kind words in the column this week but unfortunately there just isn't room for it. I do appreciate it though and please continue to write in and voice your opinions. I am always eager to hear your feedback whether it be good or bad. With that in mind, here are a select few e-mails from the past week
THE LEADOFF SPOT
The inaugural edition of the Mailbag .
Jimmy C. from Boston, MA writes ..
Love tha callumn so fah but what gives with tha Sohx being ranked numbahh 3 in unifohms. I love the sohx, they ahh my favorite team along with the Celts and the Pats. I know the Yankees have tha history and the championships but tha sohx uni's ahh classic. Tha white jerseys with tha red numbahs on the baachk. That beats pinstripes any day. I know you ahh from NY, that was a biased list, its all about tha sohx.
P.S. Tha Sohx will win tha series in 5 games this year. Big Papi for president!!!.
Ummm, thanks Jimmy. I appreciate the kind words, but the Yankees do have the best uni's in all of sport. They are classic and they are timeless. When you have the same basic uniform design that was worn by the likes of Ruth, DiMaggio, Gehrig and Mantle, you win for historical context alone. And I am not biased, as I mentioned in the intro of the first column, I am a diehard Mets fan. If anything I am biased against the Yanks. And while I appreciate your pick for the Series, I just don't see it, but I respect your loyalty to your team, it's clear you love the Sox. Hang in there and thanks for writing in.
(Note: Jimmy didn't actually type his words using a Boston accent, I took some creative license and added that myself for dramatic effect.)
Stephen F. from Brooklyn, NY writes .
I agree with you about Victor Zambrano. I cannot stand the sound of his name and lately the look of his name on paper and the computer screen has gotten sour. I just cannot stand him. I was not attached to Kazmir. As a matter of fact, I didn't care when they traded him away...I was one of those guys that was thinking...Win now..think later. Well..the philosophy was there...But the whole winning thing just didin't happen. I thought Zambrano was going to get us about 16 wins a year....But now I fear we are pushing it to get 10. I hate him and his face. (LOL!!!!....I AGREE!!!)
I would like to give you a topic to discuss for next time. Carlos Beltran. Why does every little thing make him not play? Is he a baby or what? What's the deal? Oh and a list you might want to make. Top 10 New York Sports Heroes. That might be interesting. You can even start a trend by going from state to state naming top 10 sports heroes in each of them.
Stephen, obviously I agree with you on Zambrano based on my last column and I understand your frustration, believe me. At this point, 10-12 wins a season from him would be nice. I was hoping he would turn a corner here too, but it's clear that is not going to happen. Once again, the sooner he is gone, the better.
I also agree about Beltran. While I am not ready to boo him or give up on him, it is getting a little frustrating. Other fans don't understand why Mets fans turn on their players or get so upset so fast. Its not because New Yorkers have no patience, it's because Mets fans are fed up. It's not just Beltran, its Bobby Bonilla, its Vince Coleman, its Carlos Baerga, its Robert Alomar, its Generation K and every other prospect and free agent that has come to Shea and seen their career go up in flames. We have just had enough. But with that said, Beltran was back this weekend and I think its best that we all give him some more time to prove himself. I have a hunch we won't be disappointed in the end.
Also, thanks for the list suggestions. I have actually been kicking around the New York Sports Heroes thing with my buddies for the last couple of weeks via e-mail. The only problem is most of them are Yankees fans and the lists they keep producing are heavily slanted that way. I respect Don Mattingly, but the #3 New York Sports Hero he is isn't. Anyway, here is my list of the 10 Greatest New York Sports Heroes.
1) Mickey Mantle
2) Babe Ruth
3) Joe Namath
4) Mark Messier
5) Lawrence Taylor
6) Derek Jeter
7) Willis Reed
8) Joe DiMaggio
9) Jackie Robinson
10) Mike Piazza and Don Mattingly (tie)
Honorable Mention: Lou Gehrig, Tom Seaver, Patrick Ewing, Walt Frazier, Willie Mays, Yogi Berra, Phil Simms
In regards to your other list suggestion, going state by state with the best athletes, I will have a big project coming later this summer that kind of ties into that, so keep checking back and thanks so much for writing.
Sheryl T. from Atlanta, GA writes .
Thanks so much for giving Greg Maddux his due and great start to your column. Keep it up.
Thanks Sheryl, I appreciate the kind words, thanks for writing and please keep coming back. As promised, there is a lot more on Mr. Maddux below.
THE TWO HOLE
Last week I broached the subject of the greatest pitcher of the last twenty years. This week I am going to tackle that subject on a more in depth level. I have been pouring over stats for the past week trying to decipher any clear way to rank the four greatest pitchers of my lifetime and there is just no way to do it. You could make an argument for anyone of them being the best and you could make an argument for any of them other than Clemens being the fourth best. But hey, that's what makes sports great right, they are unpredictable, they are never finite and they always make for great debate. So with that I am going to kick some things around here, let you formulate your own opinions and then ultimately give you my opinion on just who is the greatest pitcher of the last 20 years.
First let's meet our contestants. As I mentioned last time, no one can debate that the top four pitchers from this era are Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. Clemens is generally regarded as the best of the bunch and when looking at the stat totals it is hard to argue. Here is how these four pitchers rank in some of the more common stat categories:
Wins
Roger Clemens 341
Greg Maddux 323
Randy Johnson 267
Pedro Martinez 202
Strikeouts
Roger Clemens 4502
Randy Johnson 4397
Greg Maddux 3076
Pedro Martinez 2894
ERA
Pedro Martinez 2.72
Greg Maddux 3.00
Roger Clemens 3.12
Randy Johnson 3.13
Innings Pitched
Roger Clemens 4704
Greg Maddux 4440
Randy Johnson 3630
Pedro Martinez 2546
Based on those stats it seems clear that Clemens is the best of the group. It is also important to keep in mind that most of those numbers are based largely on longevity. In other words, the longer you pitch, the more strikeouts and wins you will have. It's not a coincidence that the rankings in those categories mirrors the rankings in innings pitched almost exactly. At the same time, it's reasonable to assume that Pedro has the lowest ERA because he has pitched the least innings and ERA should rise with age (although that has not been the case with Clemens). The debate comes in the issue of how you choose to evaluate the best pitcher. Is it the guy that was great for the longest or is it the guy who was better than anyone when he was at his best, even if that best was for a shorter period of time. There are arguments to be made for both sides. Cy Young and Nolan Ryan are considered two of the greatest pitchers ever and both compiled incredible win totals, but both pitched for a very long time and both have an astounding amount of losses as well. Sandy Koufax is also considered one of the all-time greats but doesn't have nearly as impressive totals. He is defined by a 5 year run of brilliance that was unmatched in baseball history .well until Pedro that is. Which brings me to the next set of numbers, and this time I am going with some more unconventional stats.
Winning Percentage
Pedro Martinez - .706
Roger Clemens - .665
Randy Johnson - .659
Greg Maddux - .631
Again, this is a number that should go down with more starts and Pedro does have the advantage with the fewest innings. However, it is worth nothing that Pedro ranks third all-time in this category and only one other player with 200 wins has a higher winning percentage than he does.
WHIP
Pedro Martinez 1.02
Greg Maddux 1.13
Randy Johnson 1.16
Roger Clemens 1.17
Batting Average Against
Pedro Martinez - .208
Randy Johnson - .216
Roger Clemens - .229
Greg Maddux - .246
Now theoretically, these two stats would also increase with age, but to me, they do a much better job of showing a pitchers dominance than any of the others. Wins and ERA are based largely on the defense and offense of the team you are pitching for. WHIP and Batting Average Against give an indication of how easy or how difficult it was for batters to reach base against you. In Pedro's case, it was harder to reach base against him than almost any other pitcher in the history of the game. During his run in the late 90's, he was untouchable. Which brings us to debate point number two, when assessing the value of a pitcher are you looking at his body of work or his best day. In other words, when deciding who is the greatest pitcher you have to ask yourself one of four questions:
1) Who would I want for his entire career?
1) Who would I want for the peak 10 year span of his career?
2) Who would I want for the peak season of his career?
3) Who would I want for one must win game?
There are countless other stats that I could bore you with, but at this point I am going to let it rest. If you ask me to answer the above questions, here is how I would do it:
1) Roger Clemens
2) Greg Maddux
3) Pedro Martinez
4) Pedro Martinez
While the book is not closed on Pedro, well not nearly as much as it is on the other three anyway, at this point in time I could not in good conscience name him the best pitcher of the last 20 years. Yes, I know, I spent the last 10 paragraphs seemingly making that claim, but when you throw in 11 All-Star games, 7 Cy Young's, 1 MVP and countless big game performances, I would still have to rank Clemens at #1 at least for today. But just as WHIP and ERA could increase over time for Pedro, so could the Wins and Strikeouts, and therefore he still has a chance to claim that top spot. Especially if he continues on at his current pace. Now its time to unveil the rest of the list.
BATTING THIRD .
This week's edition of "The Greatest" will tie into the topic above. We already know that I rank Clemens at #1, but where do the other 3 rank and who are the other great pitchers of this era. With that I present .
"The Greatest" ..10 Pitchers of the last 20 years.
First some rules before we get into the list. I have used only the last 20 years mostly for ease. I have started with the year 1985 if for no other reason than that is when I started watching baseball. The rules are as follows:
1) To qualify for the list a pitcher must have at least 150 career wins.
2) Pitchers must have a career winning percentage of .500 or better
3) Pitchers had to accrue at least half their wins from 1985 on. (i.e. Pitchers like Nolan Ryan and Bert Blyleven who were still effective into the late 80's are not eligible because the majority of their success came prior to 1985)
Now onto the list
1) Roger Clemens
2) Greg Maddux
3) Pedro Martinez
4) Randy Johnson
5) Tom Glavine 278 Wins and 2 Cy Young's
6) Curt Schilling Nearly 200 Wins and 3000 K's and of course the 2001 and 2004 postseason performances.
7) John Smoltz 177 Wins despite 4 lost years as a closer. Plus 15-4 career postseason mark.
8) Jack Morris 254 Wins and Game 7 of the '91 World Series, perhaps the biggest big game performance of all-time.
9) Mike Mussina 224 Wins with a .638 winning percentage and still going.
10) Andy Pettitte 177 Wins and still going strong. Plus countless postseason heroics.
The Next Five: Kevin Brown, David Cone, Dwight Gooden, David Wells, Orel Hershiser
CLEANING UP
I would be remiss if I didn't also mention the top young arms of today. The nature of the above list excludes the young stud pitchers that are abound throughout the Majors right now. The following is a list of the top 10 pitchers who have a chance to crack the above top 10 by the time their careers are done:
1) Johan Santana (26 years old) 60-28 3.35 ERA
2) Roy Halladay (28 years old) 82-44 3.68 ERA
3) Roy Oswalt (28 years old) 87-40 3.05 ERA
4) Tim Hudson (30 years old) 107-50 3.38 ERA
5) Jake Peavy (24 years old) 47-34 3.42 ERA
6) Dontrelle Willis (24 years old) 47-28 3.27 ERA
7) Felix Hernandez (20 years old) 5-7 3.24 ERA
8) Mark Mulder (28 years old) 99-50 3.86 ERA
9) Carlos Zambrano (24 years old) 48-37 3.34 ERA
10) Rich Harden (24 years old) 29-16 3.64
Note: All stats in the above column were provided by baseball-reference.com
That's all for this week. Once again thanks for all the comments last week and I hope to hear from everyone again this week. Until next time
