Pelletier's Perspective 9.20.06: Postseason Prognostication
Posted by Justin Pelletier on 09.20.2006
The NFL may be grabbing all the headlines but baseball is coming down the home stretch with a ton of momentum. This week I'm taking a look at how it's all going to shake down.
Some people are just stubborn. In the world of sports you'll find stubborn people everywhere. Some of the most stubborn people you'll find right now are those that just refuse to let their preseason darling Chicago White Sox go.
Even with the White Sox have only 17 of their original 162 games remaining and are four back of the Twins for the Wild Card, there are still people insisting that they'll "turn it on when it counts and make the playoffs.
Well guess what it counts now. In fact it's counted all season and the final 17 games won't be any different than the 145 that preceded them. The Sox staff has been too suspect to count on and they won't make the postseason.
True Korenok his having another great year and Thome will win comeback player of the year and Jermaine Dye may even win MVP but that will all be for naught. Of their five starters NONE have an ERA under four and Garcia and Buehrle in particular have been lit up. Both have allowed 30+ homeruns. The man who started the season as their fifth starter, Jon Garland, is the only one who has exceeded expectations and has actually emerged as their ace.
That's enough about teams that are not making the post season, let's get down to those with championship aspirations. With the AL Wild Card sown up for the Twinkies there are two postseason slots still up for grabs and they are being contested by three teams.
The NL West and Wild Card races are coming down to the wire with the Padres hold the slimmest of ½ advantages over the Dodgers while the loser of that race still has to contend with the Phillies for the Wild Card.
There's the story, in Philadelphia. If anybody can say that they knew when the Phils traded their (historically) best hitter in Bobby Abreu and a bona fide big league starter in Lidle that they'd be contending for a playoff spot they'd be lying.
The Phillies are the perfect example of addition by subtraction. It's kind of hard to imagine trading away one of your best players and a positive but what it did was allow the real stars of the team, Chase Utley and particularly Ryan Howard, to step into the role of team leader and boy what a job they've done in that role.
Howard's accomplishments are well documented. He has an outside chance of hitting 62 home runs, becoming the only player outside the "Steroid Era" to top that mark.
While I'm at it here a little rant. Even the notion that Howard should be considered the single season homerun king if he surpasses 61 is absurd. Sure McGuire, Sosa and Bonds were on ‘roids, we all know that, but there is NO proof. You can't go rewriting history based on suspicion. When will it stop? Will you strip all records from that era? And when did that ear begin and end? Are we still in the ear? Did Mike Schmidt play in the "Steroid Era"? Will you strip teams of World Series titles because you THINK they may have had a steroid user on the team? It's ridiculous.
Sure it's not fair to Ruth or Maris or Aaron but you can blame Major League Baseball for this situation. This situation is the direct result of the blind eye it turned while its players began looking more and more like cavemen. The bottom line is Bonds is the single season homerun king and McGuire is second and Sosa third and if Bonds surpasses Aaron guess what; he'll be the all-time king too. You can not like it but there's nothing you can do about it.
OK end of rant.
Back to the Phils. They are a great story but I still have a feeling they'll be on the outside looking in come playoff time. That leaves the NL like this:
The Mets, who just clinched the East, will be the top seed while the Cards take the Central by default and the Dodgers will win the West, leaving the Padres as the Wild Card participant.
Despite the fact that some experts say the Padres will be a though match-up for New York, the Mets will dispatch them in short order while the Dodgers will take out the Cardinals.
That will leave Mets/Dodgers in the NLCS. East coast v. West coast. A series that would make Tupac and Biggie proud.
Now I want to say my Mets will represent the senior circuit. I really do but if you've been a Mets fan as long as I you begin to expect a let down. The Dodgers have flown under the radar to this point but they've had a great second half. Their offense seems to be heating back up and Penny and Co. are a good enough staff to make the Series. So keeping in line with my mid season prediction I'm taking the Dodgers. I mean if four homers in a row to tie a game and one in extras to win doesn't give a team momentum what will?
If you paid attention earlier you already know that the AL is sown up. The Yankees will win the East, Detroit is going to hold on in the Central while the A's rule the West. That leaves Minnesota as the Wild Card entrant.
A quick look at those four and you have two teams that perennially make the playoffs only to be bounced out in short order and another that's THE DETROIT TIGERS. So as much as I hate to say it that only leaves the Yankees.
The Bombers are getting healthy at the right time and have a million bats that can do damage along with a group of pitchers that just plain know how to win in the postseason.
So now we have the Yankees and Dodgers in the World Series. Visions of Pee Wee Reese/Jackie Robinson and Mickey Mantle/Yogi Berra abound.
Just like the nine year span from 1947-56 where these two franchises played in the Series five times, with the Yanks winning four, the Yankees will own the Dodgers again with a, 4-2, series victory. Further prolonging my agony.
So there you go the final weeks of the MLB season put into Perspective. Truth be told….I'm banking on a Subway Series. Just don't tell anybody. I'm too stubborn to admit it.
