MLB Fastball 01.05.07: Cabrera To Join A-Rod In $200-Million Club?
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 01.05.2007
If you thought this offseason was crazy, future "Hot Stoves" might just be worse! Can a young player like Miguel Cabrera bank $200-million when he hits free agency in three years? How much money will Carlos Zambrano make after next season in light of Barry Zito's deal this year? Check out my thoughts!
Will Miguel Cabrera join A-Rod in the $200-million club with the current rate of player contracts?
It would be pretty hard for anybody to deny that this offseason has been absolutely crazy. Money has been flying around as if owners have a license to print cash, and we have seen more $100-million-plus deals than during any other offseason. Alfonso Soriano received the fifth largest contract in Major League Baseball history on an eight-year, $136-million deal with the Chicago Cubs; Carlos Lee signed a six-year, $100-million deal with the Houston Astros; Vernon wells received a seven-year extension with the Toronto Blue Jays for $126-million for the sixth largest contract in MLB history and Barry Zito most recently signed the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history with the San Francisco Giants at $126-million over seven seasons to tie Wells for sixth overall. And those are just the mega-rich deals of the offseason, which don't include the ludicrous signings of Gil Meche with the Kansas City Royals at $11-million per season over five years and Ted Lilly with the Chicago Cubs for $10-million a year over four.
This offseason could be categorized as nonsense, as contracts have seriously reached astronomical standards – and one of the typical big offenders of such a trend in the New York Yankees was barely involved in such irresponsible spending by teams. But, if the 2006-2007 "Hot Stove League" wasn't bad enough, it could get worse in future offseasons.
I recently read two things on the good old World Wide Web this past week that basically scared the crap out of me as a baseball fan, and also made me realize that with my deplorable skill at probably every position on the baseball diamond, I could honestly make at least $4-5-million per season just to stand there and look pretty.
A Dec. 21 story written by Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel discussed Florida Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera's potential value once he hits free agency, which could happen following the conclusion of the 2009 baseball season. According to an agent, a $200-million contract is not out of the question, considering Cabrera's age and the fact that he is a middle-of-the-order hitter. The other bit of Web journalism came courtesy of a column by John Donovan of Sports Illustrated on Yahoo! Sports, where Donovan took a look at some potential free agents for the next "Hot Stove League" following the conclusion of the 2007 season. At the top of his list was current Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano, who, in light of Zito's deal with the Giants, could receive as much as $20-million a season from other teams as his avoidance of injury is just as good as Zito. And Zambrano might just be a better overall pitcher than Zito in general.
I have always been a huge supporter of the players – in any sport and in every league. I have never believed it is a player's fault for wanting as much money as possible based on his talents or potential, and it is his agent's job to get that player as much money as he can not only for his 10 percent, but also because that's his job as a sports agent. It has always been the part of owners and general managers to be fiscally responsible and tell players "NO!" when they ask for such ridiculous contracts. And, for the most part, I don't feel any differently in light of these whacked-out contracts that have already been agreed to and might be agree to in future offseasons. It's the reason I hate salary caps. You can't possibly tell me that baseball needs a salary cap when the Kansas City Royals are overpaying a starting pitcher. I think that argument has been somewhat thrown out the window for those advocates of a salary cap in baseball. Clearly, even the bottom-feeders have some cash to throw around if they really want to – whether it's on stupid signings or not. It's no longer just the Yankees, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets. So I don't blame this sudden increase in player contracts on the players themselves. They are supposed to ask for a lot of money. Owners and GMs are supposed to deny them that money. Plain and simple. That's how the business should work. Unfortunately, it doesn't. So, when I see stories on the Internet about Cabrera potentially becoming a $200-million player and Zambrano going for more than what Zito signed for this offseason, I really start to worry about just how much money these baseball players can make.
Cabrera really is in a good spot. At 23 years old, he isn't even considered to be in the prime of his career. But, in the last three years of his Major League career, he has averaged about 30 home runs, 114 RBIs, 106 runs, 190 hits, 41 doubles, 158 games played, 597 at-bats and five stolen bases per season. He also has a career .311 batting average and had his career-best average at the plate with a .339 mark last season. He is not the strongest defensive player, but he can play the hot corner as well as the outfield, making him more than just a one-position player. He is one of only two cornerstone players the Florida Marlins held onto during last season's fire sale, with Dontrelle Willis being the other. And Willis is bound to get traded as some point since the rumors are swirling around like crazy. Cabrera is a sensational ballplayer who is one of the best so early in his career. I agree that if the market continues to go as crazy as it has this offseason, Cabrera does have the potential to be the second MLB player to sign a $200-million contract, Alex Rodriguez being the first as a member of the Texas Rangers with a 10-year, $252-million deal. But, for as good as Cabrera has been during the first few years of his pro career, is he really worth $200-million?
From the perspective of an agent, absolutely.
"Is $200 million out of the realm of possibility? Not whatsoever," said Arkansas-based agent Darek Braunecker, who negotiated A.J. Burnett's five-year, $55 million deal with the Blue Jays in 2005. "If there was one guy I could have to represent over the next five years going into free agency, it would certainly be [Cabrera] because of the combination of age and talent, and being a middle-of-the-lineup run producer." [Credit: Sun-Sentinel]
From the perspective of a fan, I'm not so sure.
I think it all really depends on the length of the contract. In the best-case scenario on a 10-year deal, he will make $20-million per season up until he is 36 years old. Giving fewer years on a $200-million deal would increase the annual average salary of the contract, which would put him at over $20-million a season, potentially somewhere between $25-28-million a year. That's basically more than A-Rod, and I really don't believe any team is dumb enough to invest that much money in one ballplayer who really isn't even the best the league has to offer. I also doubt any team in its right mind would give Cabrera a longer deal than 10 years. The story points out, as stated by Braunecker, that teams are more reluctant to give long-term deals than they are about giving high-priced deals. We saw that with Zito this offseason, where the only reason he will be wearing a Giants uniform as opposed to a Mets uniform is because Omar Minaya did not want to give him a deal longer than five years. Originally, Minaya was cool with giving Zito a deal with an annual average higher than the team's offer of $75-million over five years. Minaya would have offered Zito more than the $15-million average that deal entails. He did not, however, want to give a deal with more years. So, as some of the New York media has speculated, I don't think it was so much the money that scared the Mets off as much as the other term of a deal – years. That could be what hinges Cabrera banking on a $200-million deal, since it's almost too ludicrous for Cabrera to make over $20-million a season. He could, however, still make $200-million over numerous contracts as opposed to in one contract. But I think the safest number to look at is a 10-year deal, and I really don't believe Cabrera is a $20-million player.
For argument's safe, though, let's just say he hypothetically signs a deal that offers him $20-22-million per season. You have to put that in perspective with a lot of other players in the league. Right now, I don't see Cabrera as the second-best player in the league. He's a tremendous ball player. But is he really better than Albert Pujols, who is on a seven-year, $100-million contract (which is essentially a steal right now)? I truly believe Pujols is the best player in baseball and A-Rod is No. 2, but regardless, is Cabrera even in this class of players? And will the market be even more ridiculous by the time Cabrera does actually reach free agency, potentially making him more than a $200-million player?
The next offseason will see Andruw Jones hit free agency if the Atlanta Braves cannot sign him to an extension during the season. At 29 years old, Jones is currently in the prime of his career, and he's proven to be a solid defensive player in center field in addition to being a great hitter at the plate. He has the potential to hit even higher marks monetarily than Soriano, Wells and Lee did this offseason, making Cabrera's potential even more valuable once he hits the market at 26, when he will have better statistical marks at his current pace than all four of those players, Jones included.
If this remains the case, not even considering who will hit the free agent market after the 2008 offseason, what does this say for Ryan Howard of the Philadelphia Phillies once he can become a free agent in five years? That of course is pending on the Phillies being unable to reach a long-term deal with Howard beforehand. But pending they don't, does Howard's potential free agent deal following the 2011 season trump Cabrera's from 2009? Where the hell does it all end?
In sports, it's all about comparison. Somebody sets the standard for contracts, and every player and general manager uses those standards that work in their respective favors to work out their own deals. That's where Zito's contract this offseason helps out Zambrano next year, considering Zambrano really is a better overall package in the starting pitching department than Zito. And if Zito makes $18-million per season, Zambrano can use that in negotiating his next contract for $20-million-plus, which is really what I felt Zito was going to end up getting after Meche, Lilly and Jason Schmidt received their contracts.
I'm not really sure what kicked this offseason off as one of the worst we have seen, almost equaling the crazy offseason that followed the 2000 season, which included Rodriguez, Todd Helton, Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez receiving some pretty rich deals. But I do know it's pretty difficult to try and comprehend what players will be making as the years pass by, considering this trend of high-price contracts is likely to continue in disgusting fashion as players better than those on the market this offseason hit free agency in the future.
Cabrera might not be the only player that reaches $200-million in the coming years, as Rodriguez might have a lot of company in that club if owners and general managers don't start becoming fiscally responsible and learn to say "NO!"
For everyone out there who isn't sure what they want to do for a living, I suggest you play baseball in the Major Leagues. As the big boys continue to maximize the top dollar players make in the league, the lower end is sure to rise as well. Soon enough, MLB might be the only place you can absolutely suck at what you do and still pull in a couple of million dollars.
Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com.
