MLB Fastball 03.09.07: MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Hitters Part One
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 03.09.2007
With the season less than a month away, it's about that time to start preparing for some fantasy baseball! I am ranking the players for each position in a three-part series that begins this week with catchers, first basemen and second basemen. Check out part one of hitters in the 411mania MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings!
It's that time of the year again to crank out the cheat sheets and get ready for some good old fashion fantasy baseball.
With spring training about a week or so in and the season not scheduled to begin for about another three weeks, fantasy baseball drafting is where fans turn to get their engines started for the top of the season. Some do it for money and some do it for free (this latter one includes me since I'm broke), but whatever the reason and whatever the methods, fantasy baseball is the best way to interact and become more involved with what is going on over the course of the Major League Baseball season. And nothing is more important then getting your team set right from the get-go with great drafting.
Many people have their own methods and own list of players they want to go prior to the draft, and often times do not follow pre-rankings. Others, however, do use the pre-rankings provided by their service, and there's nothing wrong with that. Hey, they're there for a reason and were put together through a system of statistics by well-experienced people. But, sometimes those pre-ranking can be a little off with certain players and either over-estimate or under-estimate their particular values.
And that's why I present to you the 411mania MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. And hey, you can only find them here.
Basically, the format I'm going to follow with this is the Yahoo! default fantasy league. I'm pretty sure Yahoo! is the most popular free fantasy sports service out there and it's the one I use every season, as it is far superior to any other service out there. I joined a fantasy football league with a few buddies this past season on CBS Sportsline and almost wanted to kill myself based on their horrible layout. Just looking players up seemed like a chore. I've also done ESPN for football, and while there's nothing drastically wrong with it, the visual appeal is far less exciting then that of Yahoo!. So, to begin, if you want my advice on a service if you've never played fantasy sports before, go with Yahoo!.
With that, I will be looking at first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, outfielders, catchers, starting pitchers and relief pitchers. Most positions will get five ranked players each, while I'll look at 10 outfields, 10 starting pitchers and eight relief pitchers. These will not necessarily follow the Yahoo! pre-ranking order as these are my rankings (and this you might not agree, which you are free to e-mail me and let me know about), but they are probably going to look slightly similar to that of Yahoo!. I promise, though, it's not an exact replicate and I do switch things up a bit, as I feel some players were ranked wrong in certain instances.
The big stats I'm going to look for in these rankings correlate with the default system in Yahoo! as well, which consists of runs, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and batting average for hitters, while pitching stats consist of wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
This will be a three-part deal series, with the second part to come next Friday and the third installment to come in two weeks on March 23, just in time for that last week or so of drafting before the season opens up.
I will cover the first part of hitters this week – catchers, first basemen and second basemen. Next week, I will look at shortstops, third basemen and outfielders. Finally in two weeks, I will wrap this puppy up and take care of starting pitching and relievers.
So, lets get to it …
411mania MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Hitters Part 1
Catchers
Typically, the position of catcher is one people should wait at least three rounds to start worrying about. There might be one or two this season that could be considered decent third round selections, but catchers are not the most reliable offensive producers for fantasy baseball teams. Normally, one should expect low batting averages, 15-20 home runs, 60-ish runs scored and 50-70 RBIs from any catcher worth taking. But last season saw a lot of catchers sort of break that mold, and now fantasy players can look for guys that hit around .300, can hit over 20 homers and over 70 RBIs. This year, the right catcher could put a team well ahead of others in its league, so don't knock them too low down when preparing for your league's draft.
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins:
Joe Mauer is going to be the perennial top pick for catchers in fantasy baseball drafts for a very long time. He came on like crazy last season and led the entire league in batting average at .347. His home run and RBI numbers – 13 and 84, respectively – were not the best among catchers, but he had the most runs with 86 and that batting average is hard to look past. He has gotten significantly better in each of the three years he has been in the league, and there is only room for more improvement from Mauer going into his fourth season. If you're stuck on getting home runs from your catcher, Mauer probably isn't the guy for you. But if you just want a guy that can hit the ball, score runs and probably rank in the top five in RBIs among the position, Mauer is as good as they come.
2. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians:
The AL Central sure does know how to compile the top catchers in the league now, don't they? Victor Martinez may not have walked out of last season with the best home run total of his career, but he did manage to grab career bests in runs (82), RBIs (93) and batting average (.316). That batting average is key to his value, as he has really improved his game over the past few seasons to snag a batting average over .300 the past two years, and I see no reason to believe he should go sub-.300 this year. Plus, if any player has the potential right off the bat to lead the catching position in home runs, it's got to be Martinez. His career-best is 23, but I believe he's due for a season that nears 30. I can't say I see him necessarily hitting for 100 RBIs, but he should once again top 90, and maybe top 90 in runs as well. He still has to be considered the second-best option in this year's draft, but outside of batting average, I think he has the capability to top Mauer in almost every other stat.
3. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves:
Atlanta Braves catchers have a habit of performing really well at the plate, and Brian McCann is no exception. After his first season as the man behind the plate in Atlanta, McCann has managed to become the third best option in fantasy baseball. Among catchers that really saw significant playing time, McCann finished second at the position in batting average with a .333 stat. He was also first in home runs with 24 (even though Josh Willingham was catcher-eligible and is included in those stats, he only played two games behind the plate and was primarily in left field), ended up in a three-way tie among catchers for RBIs with 93 and crossed home plate 61 times for runs. He's not yet ready to be considered the best, but he definitely compiled enough stats last season to be spoken of in the same breath as Mauer and Martinez. He might eventually top the two, and he will have to prove if he's worthy of that this season. But, for right now, he is the third best of the bunch.
4. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles:
Ramon Hernandez can have the tendency to be hot and cold at times. When he's playing well, he's on fire. When he's not really hitting so well from the plate, he's ice cold for a while. Last season, he had a decent April, hitting well for contact but not really grabbing power numbers with only two homers and 16 RBIs. In May and June, he turned it on, combining for 13 home runs and 43 RBIs over the two months. Then, July and August were pretty drab, and he only hit for one home run and 16 RBIs between the two months with pretty bad batting averages and only 15 combined runs. But, in September, he turned it on again and hit seven home runs and 16 RBIs along with a .351 batting average and 19 runs. So, he had his stretches throughout the season where he wasn't so good, and had others where he was basically the best hitting catcher available. I don't see this year being very different, and he should hit mid-20s in homers, have somewhere between 80-95 RBIs, score 60-70 runs and hit for a sub-.300 batting average between .270 and .290. These are still very good numbers for a catcher and he's definitely worth taking, you just have to understand that he won't be at the top of his game all the time.
5. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees:
Jorge Posada used to be considered one of the better catching options in fantasy baseball, and I mean probably top three worthy. It doesn't hurt that he plays for the New York Yankees after all. But now, he seems to be one of those middle options fantasy players go after. I still think he has a lot of value and upside, and his potential far outweighs some of the other catchers that tend to get ranked ahead of him. His batting average has never been mind-boggling and has not gotten past the high-.280s, but he can put up 70-90 runs, 20-30 home runs and 90-100 RBIs in any given season. Last season, he had his best home run and RBI total since 2003, when he nailed 30 homers and 101 ribbies. He might just be due to reach those 2003 numbers again. Can players like Seattle's Kenji Johjima or Detroit's Ivan Rodriguez pull through and put together better seasons than Posada? Maybe. But the way I see it now, I'd rather grab Posada, who had his best season in years last season, while "Pudge" is definitely on the decline and Johjima hasn't really proven he's all that much better than Posada based off of one season.
First Basemen
Okay, here are your power hitters. If you get the right first baseman, you can be a very happy person the entire season with your big home run and RBI totals. With that thought in mind though, do not jump the gun on any first baseman before it's really his time to be taken. First base is probably the most plentiful position in the draft, and even if you have to wait until middle rounds to grab Jason Giambi, who is first base eligible, you can still get a good amount of production out of him. So, take a guy if you really want him and it seems like a spot that's worth the pick, but remember there are plenty of first basemen out there that can make an impact on your team. That's not necessarily true with other positions.
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals:
Say hello to the king of fantasy baseball – Albert Pujols. He's the first overall pick in any draft, bar none, unless you're hopped up on cold medicine, which could happen this time of year. Unless you have the No. 1 overall pick in your draft, don't anticipate getting him. But if you do have it, there's nothing wrong about grabbing a player who consistently hits over 40 home runs, goes for around 120-130 RBIs, scores about 120-130 runs and has a .330 or better batting average. Pujols always amazes with how much he improves every season. And at the rate he's played throughout the first six seasons of his career, he might just go down as the best player of all time when he does retire. But, I'm getting a little ahead of myself. Last year, Pujols had 49 home runs, 119 runs, 137 RBIs and a .331 batting average. He also managed to swipe seven bases. In 2007, I think it's the year Pujols finally goes for 50 or more home runs and tops 140 RBIs. He could probably also go for another 130-run season, which he did twice in 2003 and 2004. A typical .333-ish season should be on par for the Cardinal as well. You absolutely cannot go wrong with Pujols and just be happy as hell if you're in any kind of position to grab him. They don't get much better in fantasy baseball, or in baseball … period.
2. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox:
Though technically a designated hitter, David Ortiz is first base eligible. Ortiz, as usual, was a beast last season. Though he did not have the most stunning batting average of his career, as he was sub-.300 after being basically at .300 the previous two seasons, he was still a solid .287. But, he had a career-high 54 home runs (going over 50 for the first time) and also had 137 RBIs (AL lead) and 115 runs scored. He is Boston's most important player and should have numerous opportunities to come through in the clutch once again this season. At this point, so long as he plays at least 150 games and grabs 550 at-bats, Ortiz should be a lock for over 40 homers, over 130 RBIs, over 110 runs and at least a .290-ish batting average.
3. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies:
Ryan Howard smoked people last season. And despite the fact that I still believe Pujols should have won the NL MVP Award, Howard definitely put up numbers more than worthy enough to have him at least in consideration for it. He led the league with 58 home runs and 149 RBIs, and he also had 104 runs and a .313 batting average. This is all in his second year, mind you – one season after putting up good enough numbers in only 88 games to win 2005 NL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, he's pretty good. But, I can't put him at No. 1 or No. 2 here because I don't think there's anyway he lives up to the numbers he hit last season. Now, I don't think he's going to completely die down obviously, but I just don't see him hitting damn near 60 home runs and 150 RBIs again. I think he should have numbers comparable to Ortiz, just slightly below him though. He should hit in the high-40s with home runs (possibly low-50s), in the 130s with RBIs and grab at least 100 runs. It's not his 2006 numbers, but it's still pretty damn good. On a side note, too, Howard is going to get walked quite a few times next season as well, which could take away big opportunities for him to get some numbers in the important fantasy categories. But overall, while he's not going to do as well as he did last season, he won't be that far off from it and should do just slightly below what Ortiz does in terms of production.
4. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers:
The Texas Rangers have always had more than their fair share of good hitters. Mark Teixeira is currently the best the team has to offer. Teixeira did not have as good a season in 2006 as he did in 2005, when he hit career-bests in home runs (43), RBIs (144) and batting average (.301), and also had a career-best 112 runs scored. But, his 2006 numbers were still pretty good for him, especially since he didn't start to really heat up until July. He ended the season with 33 home runs, 110 RBIs, 99 runs scored and a .282 batting average. From the start of the 2007 season, I think Teixeira will do better. I can't say I think he will top his 2005 numbers, necessarily, but I do think he'll get into the high-30s/low 40s in home runs and reach 120-130 RBIs. His batting average is a bit tough to judge, but a mark of .285-.290 is probably a safe guesstimate. And I expect him to cross the plate around 110 times for runs. I'll put it this way. I think he will have the second-best season of his major league career.
5. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs:
Does one injury-plagued season all of a sudden drop a player's potential when healthy? Last year was disappointing for Derrek Lee, the Chicago Cubs and Lee's fantasy owners. He was only able to play in 50 games and see 175 at-bats thanks to a wrist injury. He was only able to hit eight home runs and 30 RBIs on a .286 batting average with 30 runs scored and eight bases stolen. This came one year after his best season by far, when he managed to smash 46 long balls, grab 107 RBIs, score 120 runs, steal 15 bases and hit for a .335 average. Prior to that, he never even hit .300, had over 32 home runs, or had 100 RBIs or runs in a season. He kind of came out of nowhere in 2005 and people expected a lot out of him for 2006, which never really panned out. Well, now is Lee's time to make up for it. The Cubs have taken great strides toward being contenders in the NL Central this season, and the re-signing of Aramis Ramirez and free agent signing of Alfonso Soriano helps out Lee a lot. He will hit in the lineup somewhere around those two, which either means he will benefit from them getting on base if they bat before him or protection if they hit after him – or a combo of the two if he's made the cleanup hitter. Whatever way you slice it, those three combined in some fashion in the 3-4-5 spots in the Cubs' lineup is a benefit for all three of them. Lee likely won't repeat his 2005 stats, but a low-40-homer season with 110-120 RBIs, 100-110 runs and a high-.290 batting average doesn't seem improbable. Plus, he also has the ability to steal bases, so look for him to snag about 15-20 steals over the course of the season as well. Much like Teixeira, I think 2007 will be Lee's second best season of his career.
Second Basemen
Second base is one of those positions where there's only one real must-have and everybody after is somebody you can afford to hold off on. Usually, that spot belonged to Alfonso Soriano, but since he's no longer second base eligible, that recognition has been past on to somebody else. But second base is the position where you can't really expect big power numbers, but you should look for a good mix of batting average, runs and possibly even stolen bases.
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies:
Well, the man Alfonso Soriano handed the torch down to was Philadelphia Phillies' own Chase Utley. Utley is, without a shadow of a doubt, the only second baseman that deserves early consideration in fantasy drafts. If you aren't in a position to grab him, you basically might as well hold off until the later parts of the draft to grab your second baseman and worry about other positions instead. Utley is the only real threat to go over 30 in home runs, go over 100 in RBIs and actually score well past 100 runs. Plus, he's probably one of only a handful of second basemen that is going to hit .300 or better. Utley's best season came last year when he was basically in the shadows of Ryan Howard. He had 32 home runs, 102 RBIs, 131 runs, a .309 batting average and even 15 stolen bases. I think he could stand to improve even more this season. He is a first rounder for sure if for no other reason then no other second basemen even comes close to what Utley offers a fantasy baseball team.
2. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins:
Dan Uggla had quite a rookie season under now-fired manager and NL Manager of the Year Joe Girardi. In 154 games and 611 at-bats, Uggla had 27 home runs, 90 RBIs, 105 runs and a .282 batting average. That's not bad at all for a player's first year in MLB. Now, he didn't really provide a solid amount of stolen bases – only six – but every other stat was decent at the very least. And now, heading into a second season with one year under his belt, he might just top those numbers. I can definitely see this kid going for 30 home runs, 100 RBIs and 100 runs next season in the second or third spot in the Marlins' batting order. Uggla is the second best offensive option behind Miguel Cabrera and he'll have the opportunity to prove it this year. Outside of stolen bases, he basically has the other stats covered.
3. Robinson Canó, New York Yankees:
Batting average – that's the major reason to grab Robinson Cano. He led the American League in batting average among second basemen with a .342 mark, which was also good for third in the entire AL and fourth in the entire league. He completely demolished the other second basemen in the league in that stat. He is also a very decent source of runs and RBIs, and will likely snag somewhere between 15-20 home runs over the course of the season. I'd say an 80-90-run and 80-90-RBI with a mid-.300 batting average is a reasonable expectation for the New York Yankees' second baseman, which being almost a forgotten commodity in a good Yankees' lineup also works to his advantage.
4. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles:
Honestly, by this point, any second baseman is a risk past Utley, Uggla and Cano, but I think Brian Roberts is the safest out of the remaining crop of players at this position. Roberts gives you a little bit of everything. He won't necessarily give you a ton of power numbers, but he's got a solid chance to become a .300 hitter again. He could also hit in 100-run territory and steal bases somewhere in the high-30s/low-40s area. And, I think he'll hit at least 15 homers and 70 RBIs this season as well, so he's not a complete waste when it comes to the power numbers. You have to be cautious with him since he really only had that one big season in 2005, and he started strong and finished slow in that season anyway. But still, his potential is there and it's the best out of the second basemen that remain.
5. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
If your biggest worry with second basemen is stolen bases, you have to take Chone Figgins. He's the only one really capable of topping 50, and perhaps even 60, steals. He is also a very good source of runs, grabbing at least 80 in each of the past three seasons, while topping 100 in 2005 and topping 90 last year. In the home run and RBI department, he's not too good. Essentially, he doesn't reach 10 in homers and doesn't go much further than 60 in RBIs. But, in batting average, he should return to .290-form in 2007, which isn't all that bad. Plus, he's eligible to play so many positions – third base and outfield included along with second base, which makes him a very valuable commodity that doesn't need to be stuck in only one spot on a fantasy team. So really, in Figgins, you get the best base running second baseman available with minimal home runs and RBIs and a decent batting average that should be better than his .267 mark from last year.
Okay folks, that's part one of hitters for the 411mania MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. Make sure to come back next week where I finish up with hitters and take a look at shortstops, third basemen and outfielders.
Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com.
