MLB Fastball 03.16.07: MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Hitters Part Two
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 03.16.2007
Last week saw the first installment of a three-part series on 411mania MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings! This week, I continue with part two of hitters, taking a look at shortstops, third basemen and outfielders!
This week continues a look at the 411mania MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. We'll be hitting up shortstops, third basemen and outfielders in this edition of MLB Fastball.
If you want to take a look at my rankings for catchers, first basemen and second basemen, check out last week's MLB Fastball for the part one version for hitters in the fantasy rankings.
As a reminder, this isn't Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS Sportsline's or any other services pre-ranking system. Instead, it's how I believe the top players at each position should be ranked. And though I'm sure there is a major similarity between the rankings here and the ones with those services, I do toss a curveball every now and again. I do also use the Yahoo! default system of scoring – runs, batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases for hitters/ wins, saves, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP for pitchers – as a model for the rankings.
With that out of the way, lets get back into the rankings …
411mania MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Hitters Part 2
Shortstops
Shortstop isn't a position where you're likely to find big power numbers, outside of one or two players in particular that is. Here is a good spot to grab some batting average, run total and stolen base players. It's not to say you can't strike gold and also pick a player capable of smacking out over 20 long balls, but it's not the most important thing. So long as he has around 15 homers along with strong stats in the other categories, he's a good pick.
1. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees:
Derek Jeter is without a doubt the top shortstop choice in the Major League Baseball. If you want him, be prepared to grab him in the second round, which might seem a bit early but really is worth it for what you get out of him. In Jeter, you get a player coming off his best year in batting average (.344) and stolen bases (34). He also had 118 runs, which is good for the sixth best run total of his career, and 97 RBIs, which is the second best total of his career. His batting average was good enough to rank second in the American League behind only Joe Mauer (who had a .347 stat.) Jeter should go for another season over .300 at the plate with 15-20 homers, probably 75-85 RBIs, 120-125 runs and 30 stolen bases. Too bad defense doesn't count as a stat as well, since he's pretty good there too. But his offense is more than adequate to make him a great fantasy player.
2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets:
Okay, call me crazy, and I know somebody will. But I don't yet see Jose Reyes as the top fantasy shortstop, let alone a first round pick, which is basically where he goes in all fantasy drafts. He's good, don't get me wrong, and is probably not too far behind Jeter as the top guy. But, to me, he gets glorified for having two straight seasons with at least 60 stolen bases. I'm a big believer that one good season doesn't make you amazing. And in 2005, Reyes missed only one game and had seven home runs, 99 runs, 58 RBIs and a .273 batting average with 60 stolen bases. Yes, last season he put up spectacular numbers with 19 homers, 81 RBIs, 122 runs, 64 stolen bases and a .300 batting, but I don't see a guarantee out of Reyes that he will reproduce in 2007. The potential means I have to rank him no further down than No. 2 since nobody really comes close. But he could just as easily go back down to around 10 homers, 60 RBIs 100 runs and a sub-.300 batting average. Again, though, don't get me wrong. His potential to put up another season like last year makes him the second best shortstop available. But with a guarantee like Jeter at the position, Reyes is not yet the top guy.
3. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles:
Miguel Tejada has unfortunately fallen off a bit in recent years; otherwise he would likely be the No. 1 shortstop in fantasy baseball. Now, he did have his best season batting average-wise in 2006 with a .330 stat, but his 24 home runs, 100 RBIs and 99 runs are short of what we all know a player the caliber of Tejada is capable of. Unfortunately, I can't promise he gets really back on track in 2007, but I do like his chances. I think we'll see him back in 30-home run territory. Though I doubt he'll hit the 150-RBI plateau he reached in 2004 – his first season with the Baltimore Orioles – I think he could get back into 120-130-RBI territory. I think he'll get back over the 100-run mark for the first time since 2004 next season. And, though he won't hit .330 again, I think he'll go around .310 at the plate for Baltimore. He's probably the last shortstop you want for stolen bases and he is one of those exceptions I talked about in the shortstops intro, but he has the ability to be the best player at the position in every other category. He just hasn't been that good in a few years, but the potential is always there. I think 2007 is the season he gets back on track.
4. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins:
Yeah, I know, way to be a hypocrite, Neil. You won't put Jose Reyes in the No. 1 spot because he only had one good season, but you'll put a player entering his second season at the No. 4 spot among shortstops. But, in my defense, if it weren't for constant solid production from Jeter from season to season, Reyes probably would be No. 1. With Ramirez, I think you're seeing somebody that is Reyes-esque, and this will be the season he realizes that potential. During his rookie year last season, Ramirez managed a .292 batting average with 17 home runs, 59 RBIs, 119 runs and 51 stolen bases. He also tied for seventh in the entire league in triples with 11 and also tied for 10th in the league in doubles with 46. Simply put, the man knows how to hit the ball and run the bases. He should once again hit in the 15-20 range for homers and 110-120 in runs scored, but I expect him to up his RBI output to 70-80 as well as go for around 60 stolen bases. Batting average is harder to get a handle on, but even if he sticks around .290, that's still pretty good.
5. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies:
So Jimmy Rollins might be off his rocker for calling the Philadelphia Phillies the team to beat in the NL East for the upcoming season, but that's okay. Rollins is allowed to make a bold prediction like that, as the Phillies currently sport one of their best looking rosters in years, and he himself is coming off the most productive season of his career. Rollins finished with 26 home runs, 83 RBIs, 127 runs, 36 stolen bases and a .277 batting average. The batting average was not his greatest, but runs, homers and RBIs saw career-highs out of Rollins. To expect Rollins to reach those numbers exactly again would not be logical, but I don't expect him to go back to his status quo prior to the 2006 season. I think his home run total will range in the 15-20 range, his RBI total will be around 75-80, his run total will be closer to 120 and his batting average will go up to the .290 range. His stolen base total should once again range around 40, possibly going over it for the third time in his career. Rollins will be better than he was prior to 2006 but won't be quite as good as he was last season.
Third Basemen
Third base is a solid spot to look for power numbers. Batting average, runs and stolen bases are not as high among third basemen as they are for other positions, but they are certainly passable with the right guy. Your strongest numbers probably won't come from your third baseman, but he is important as the right player can contribute pretty well across the boards, especially in the home run and RBI categories.
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees:
It doesn't matter how many times he bombs out with the New York Yankees and doesn't come through when the team needs him the most. It doesn't matter how many errors he has on the field. It doesn't matter if his relationship with Derek Jeter is rocky at times or even if he'll be with the Yankees at the end of the year. Playoff performance, as well, is not important. None of that is relevant. Every season, no matter when they come, Alex Rodriguez puts up numbers and that's all that matters in fantasy baseball – numbers. Last season was definitely a down year for Rodriguez after coming off an MVP season in 2005. He had 35 home runs, 121 RBIs, 113 runs and 15 stolen bases with a .290 batting average. For any other player, those are great numbers. For A-Rod, that just adds up to a decent season but nothing spectacular. This season, amidst all the rumblings about Rodriguez' future, I expect him to do better at the plate. Now, that doesn't mean he will all of a sudden become the most clutch player in the Yankees lineup and that he won't strike out in key situations, but I can't see him having another year with the stats he compiled in 2006. I think he will hit over 40 home runs once again, probably closer to 45. I think he will hit around 130-135 RBIs. I think he'll cross the plate for 120 runs. I think he'll steal around 25 bags. And I think his batting average will go back over .300. He's not going to have career-highs in anything, but Rodriguez will play closer to what he did two years ago rather than what he did last season.
2. David Wright, New York Mets:
New York owns the best fantasy third basemen available. First A-Rod, now David Wright. Ever since Wright has entered the league, he's been making noise. Hell, I remember when he was playing Triple-A ball, all commentators could talk about was how well Wright was playing and how well he was going to transition into the MLB game. And he most certainly has. In the fantasy circle, Wright gives you a little bit of everything. He's had two really strong full seasons with the Mets after playing 69 games in 2004. In 2005, he managed to hit 27 home runs and 102 RBIs, along with scoring 99 runs, stealing 17 bases and hitting .306 at the plate. Last season, Wright hit .311 at the plate with 96 runs scored, 20 stolen bases, 26 home runs and 116 RBIs. He has quickly matured into the Mets' leader and I expect more of the same from Wright. I believe he will up most of his numbers mildly next season. I think he'll hit 30 homers, 120 RBIs, and 100-105 runs. His batting average should range around .310 again, perhaps going a little up or even a little down from last year. And I think he'll be on par to steal about the same amount of bases again in 2007.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins:
Miguel Cabrera is the most veteran player of the Marlins' young infield at 23 years old, and he's also the best offensively. If Cabrera were a better base stealer, I would undoubtedly rank him ahead of Wright. But with his career best of nine steals coming last season, along with being caught stealing six times, Cabrera isn't the most lethal base stealer out there. Aside from that, though, Cabrera is pretty awesome. After two straight seasons hitting 33 home runs, he slipped by seven last year to 26, but I see no reason why he can't hit over 30 in 2007. He stayed pretty consistent in the RBI stat with 114 last season – two less in 2005 but two more than in 2004. He had career-highs in runs with 112 and batting average at .339. And, not that is counts in default leagues, but he was fifth in the league in doubles with 50. He should be a real treat in 2007. Again, I think he'll go back into 30-home runs territory, and once again put up around 115 RBIs, 110 runs and a batting average over .310.
4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs:
The Chicago Cubs have one hell of a middle to their batting order between first baseman Derrek Lee, outfielder Alfonso Soriano and third baseman Aramis Ramirez. No matter what order they bat in for the likely 3-4-5 spots, it's going to be lethal. So if you thought Ramirez' numbers were good last season when he had basically nobody around him, imagine how well he's going to do with two other tremendous bats in the lineup. Of course, there is the possibility that chances he would normally have to produce at the plate will be eaten up by Lee and Soriano, but I think they will benefit him more than hurt him. Ramirez will once again hit over 30 home runs and should hit over 110 RBIs. I think 2007 will be the first season he goes for 100 or more runs scored. I wouldn't bank on him going for .300 or better in the batting average department, but I don't think he'll do any worse than his career average of .279. As far as stealing bases, he's pretty useless. But in the power numbers department, he should come up pretty clutch for fantasy teams.
5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies:
The Colorado Rockies might not be a very good team, but they do have some pretty good players on their roster. One of those players is Garrett Atkins, who stormed onto the third base scene last season during his sophomore campaign with a .329 batting average, 29 home runs, 120 RBIs, 117 runs and four stolen bases. Stealing bases is obviously not his strong suit, but the man does enough in every other category to make him a solid fantasy selection at the hot corner. He improved immensely from his 2005 numbers, and though it's really unknown if he can top what he did in 2006, I don't see him doing worse. He should have a home run total around 30, perhaps even over it, in 2007 along with an RBI total in the 120-125 range, a run total in the 110-120 range and a batting average over .300, though it just might not be as good as the .329 stat from 2006. Atkins is still somewhat fresh, though, so it's entirely possible he has an off year or does even better than anybody expected. But I think it's safe to say he'll have a season in 2007 that's comparable to his 2006 season.
Outfielders
Outfield is a mixed bag. Some players are phenomenal with the power numbers. Some are good with the speed. Some are good at hitting for contact. Some are good at it all. Ideally, if you can grab one outfielder to smash the long ball and compile RBIs at astronomic proportions, one outfielder that will provide decent stats all around but do so with a solid batting average well over .300 and one outfielder that grabs a lot of stolen bases and runs with decent numbers everywhere else, you're pretty much golden. That way, you've got everything covered. Outfield tends to be the position where most people will take a chance on somebody since outfield is probably the position where you're most likely going to find somebody come out of the woodworks that you can grab on the waiver wire later on. Overall, rankings can be different for each individual person depending on what you're looking for from your outfielders, as not every outfielder is going to be proficient in every scoring category.
1. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets:
I think Carlos Beltran is the best outfielder the MLB has to offer fantasy baseball. He seems like somebody that should hit .300, but doesn't. He's typically going to give you around .270 at the plate. But, his home runs numbers are strong, as are his run totals and RBIs. Last season, Beltran had 41 homers, 116 RBIs and 127 runs, which were all team-leads for a very talented New York Mets squad. He also stole 18 bases, which is a bit low for what he's capable of, so I definitely expect him to up that total to the high-20s/low-30s in 2007. Home run-wise, it's possible he once again tops 40, but a high-30s stat seems more realistic. He should once again have around 120-130 runs and 120 RBIs. His batting average does leave something to be desired, though it's not like he's never had a .300 season (he went .306 in 2001 and .307 in 2003 with Kansas City), but I can live with a .270-.275 hitter if he's giving me numbers everywhere else.
2. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox:
Manny Ramirez is probably your best bet at grabbing power numbers from an outfielder. Don't let his 35-home run total from last season mistake you – Ramirez is a 40-plus home run hitter with the Boston Red Sox. To be honest, most if his stats were a bit off in 2006, but they should spark right back up in 2007. Ramirez should be back in mid-40s home run territory with 130-140 RBIs, 110-115 runs, a .320-ish batting average and a couple of stolen bases. Ramirez is one of the best big number guys in the business and I think the fact that he does it with a huge batting average is what makes him so valuable. If he stole more bases, he'd be No. 1. But I think Beltran's ability to do that gives him the top spot for outfielders.
3. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs:
It kind of stinks that Alfonso Soriano is no longer second base eligible, as he would undoubtedly still be the top player at that position – thanks a lot for that Washington! Regardless, Soriano still puts up stellar enough numbers to rank him among the top outfielders in the league. Last year was a career year for Soriano, which kind of figures since it was also a contract year. In his first and only season with the Nationals, Soriano became the first member of the 40-40-40 club. He had 46 home runs, 41 steals and 41 doubles. He also managed 95 RBIs, 119 runs and a .277 batting average. Basically, if he could hit .300 and about 30-40 more RBIs, Soriano would likely be the top outfielder for fantasy baseball players. I don't think one could expect Soriano to reproduce exactly what he did last season, but I doubt he'll drop too far off the mark. His batting average should probably remain around .280, but I think his home run total will drop back down to the high-30s and his stolen base total will probably be in the same high-30s area as well. He should probably score around 120 runs and 100 RBIs again, but that could fluctuate in either positive or negative fashion depending on where he bats in comparison to Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. I expect Soriano to have another prosperous season in his first with the Cubs.
4. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
A few years ago, Vladimir Guerrero was the outfielder to get in fantasy drafts. Now – not so much. But he is still a late-first round/early-second round draft pick. His batting average is still almost as good as they come for outfielders and his RBI total from last season was the fourth best of his career. But his home run and run totals were all short of what we know Vladdy is capable of. Plus, his stolen base totals have been a big disappointment since he swiped 40 bags in 2002 with the Montreal Expos. In order for the Angels to be competitive this season, Guerrero has to be on the money. "Mr. HGH" Gary Matthews, Jr. sure as hell isn't going to carry the team. Guerrero should once again boast a batting average around .330 and will probably up his stolen base total to around 20 bags. I think his home run total will again fail to reach 40, but he should get that number back up to the high-30s at the very least. He should reach at least 100 runs this year, which would be the first time in three years he has done so. And his RBI total will definitely go above 100 and probably land in the 110-120 range. This is the season Guerrero has to prove he's still the same dynamic player he was in Montreal, and I think he's going to do it.
5. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros:
I still think the Houston Astros overpaid for Carlos Lee, but that's pretty much irrelevant in fantasy sports. The man puts up some impressive numbers. Lee has put up four straight seasons with 31 or more home runs, hitting a career-high of 37 last year between the Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers. He almost has four straight seasons of 100 or more RBIs, hitting only 99 in 2004, but otherwise hitting at least 113 in three of the last four seasons. He has scored at least 100 runs in three of his last four seasons as well, and he has stolen over 10 bases in all but two seasons in his major league career. He's fairly inconsistent in the batting average department and can either give you something around .300 or something closer to .265. I think we'll once again see a high-30s home run season from Lee, along with 115-ish RBIs, 100 runs, 13 stolen bases and a .280-ish batting average.
6. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
Stolen bases. If you're picking up Carl Crawford, that's why – to grab as many stolen bases as humanly possible. The only outfielder that comes close to his stolen base stats is Juan Pierre, but Pierre doesn't do as well in the other categories as Crawford. Crawford had 58 stolen bases last season and will consistently be a threat to steal 60 bags every year. He's also been a .300-plus hitter the past two seasons. He hit 18 home runs last year and had 77 RBIs. He also crossed the plate for 89 of his own runs. I think Crawford will once again run for a high-50s stolen base total in 2007 with the potential for this to be his year to finally nail 60 or more. He should also have a .300 batting average with nothing lower than .290 as the worst case scenario. He should hit around 15 homers with 80 RBIs. And I think he'll once again hit the 100-run plateau that he missed last season but managed to reach in 2004 and 2005. In the end, though, if you're grabbing Crawford, it's because you put a high value on stolen bases.
7. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays:
Vernon Wells got a big payday during the offseason and now he needs to show he deserves that extension. Wells isn't always the flashiest of the bunch and doesn't always boast the best stats, but he's a solid all-around outfielder that I think is easily a No. 1 outfielder for any fantasy team. Last year marked his second best showing in a major league season, going for 32 home runs, 106 RBIs, 91 runs and a .303 batting average from the plate, along with 17 stolen bases. Without a shadow of a doubt, I think he's going to do even better in 2007. I think he'll increase his home run total next season to around the 35 mark. I think he'll hit in runs at a rate around what he did in 2003, when he had 117 RBIs. I think he'll score over 100 runs. I think he'll have another .300-plus season. And, I think he'll steal about 15 bases. I have this much confidence in Wells because Toronto is still an improving team that is going to take another run at least the AL Wild Card, and Wells has to be on his game for the Blue Jays to have a chance. He is still their most important player offensively, and I think the bar he set last season will be surpassed as the ever-improving Blue Jays continue to grow as a stronger team in 2007.
8. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves:
If only Andruw Jones could hit 50 or more home runs every season. The 2005 season was a monster one for Jones, and fantasy owners were more than pleased to pluck him off the draft board for the 2006 season. Unfortunately, he came down to earth a bit in the home run department with only 41 long balls, but he went one higher in the RBI department with 129 and went up by 12 in runs for a 107 stat, marking the first time he went a season with 100 or more runs since 2003. His batting average over the past three seasons has been about .262, and I don't see that changing very much in 2007. He should also have another 40-home run season (probably in the mid-40s this year) with 120 RBIs, 95-100 runs and a handful of stolen bases. Jones is a power player, and if you want those homers and RBIs, he's your guy. Everything else is nothing special.
9. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox:
I'm still not completely sold on Jermaine Dye yet, but I guess I'll give in for these rankings. I just kind of remember him from 2004 and 2005 as a guy that roamed the waiver wire in leagues. But, last year was not his first brilliant season in the league, as he did manage some impressive numbers in 1999 and 2000 with the Kansas City Royals that weren't just home run related like what he did two years ago with the White Sox. Last season was Dye's best so far in the majors, going over 40 in home runs for the first time in his career with a stat of 44 long balls. He also had his best RBI year with 120 runs batted in, his second-best run total with 103 home plate touches and had his second-best batting average with a .315 mark. He was in consideration for the AL MVP Award, and some people probably felt he should have been considered a bit more than he was. I can't say Dye will produce like he did last season once again in 2007 because he just hasn't shown that type of consistency, but I don't believe he will fall entirely off the wagon either. I think he'll still be good for a mid-30s home run total with 90 runs, 110 RBIs, a .275 batting average and a handful of stolen bases.
10. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners:
Ichiro Suzuki is the last player you want for power stats. He will hit around 10 homers every season, but won't go much over that mark. The best he's had in his six-year MLB career is 15 home runs, and he's only gone over 10 twice. His RBI numbers also tend to linger around 60-65, even though last season he only managed 49 runs batted in. But, if you're looking for a batting average well over .300, stolen bases at least in the mid-30s range and over 100 runs, Ichiro is your guy. He hasn't had a season with a batting average under .303, and even went .372 during his monumental season in 2004 when he had 262 hits. He has never stolen less than 31 bases, and even had 56 during his rookie year and 45 last season. He has never had less than 101 runs and only went under 110 in 2004. Ichiro seems to be a consistent player, so just look at what he's done over the last six years and know that what you're going to get out of him in 2007 is basically what you've gotten out of him in the past – minimal power stats but perhaps the strongest batting average in the league with a high run total and at least 30 stolen bases.
And we're done with part two of hitters for the 411mania MLB Fastball 2007 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. Stop by next week for the third and final installment, when I rank starting pitchers and relievers.
Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com.
