411's MLB Opening Day 2007 Roundtable: West Division
Posted by Dan Owen on 03.26.2007
As winter turns into spring and NCAA Tournament Bracket sheets get ripped up and thrown into the garbage, it can mean only one thing. The Major League Baseball season is about to begin! As with the start of any sports season, its prediction time. Join the 411 staff as they share who they think will be the best in the West.
Welcome young and old to 411mania's 2007 MLB Opening Day Roundtable. For the next 6 days, we will be taking a look 411's writers' thoughts on everything from division winners to biggest storylines as we head into the new season. Before we get started, though, let's meet the gang.
Appearing in his tenth different column here on 411, it's Samuel Berman.
Samuel Berman:San Diego Padres - The Dodgers, Padres and Giants all made great improvements in the off season, even signing quality players away from each other in some cases (Greg Maddux from LA to SD, Jason Schmidt from SF to LA). On the surface, it might seem as if San Francisco has the advantage with a rotation that includes Matt Morris, Matt Cain and the newly-signed Barry Zito and a lineup that includes veterans Ray Durham, Randy Winn, Dave Roberts and the immortal Barry Bonds. However, the Padres have an excellent and improving mix of young talent and veteran class that will help them to make it to the playoffs. Their rotation, which includes studs Jake Peavy and Chris Young as well as the timeless duo of David Wells and Greg Maddux, will probably be the best of a strong division, and their lineup, which added Marcus Giles to join his brother Brian, Khalil Greene, Mike Cameron and the up-and-coming Josh Bard and Adrian Gonzalez, seems well built to take advantage of the cavernous PETCO Park (402 to right-center) by doubling it's way to victory. You also can't discount all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman as a major factor in the team's success.
Sat: San Diego Padres - This is a tough division to pick and I could see any team winning this division. I think the two best teams in the division are Arizona and San Diego with San Diego being the better of the two. I think that San Diego are going to win because I think that Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux will get 15 plus wins apiece and the offense scores just enough to allow the Padres to win the division.
Ronny Sarnecky:Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers play in a pitcher friendly ballpark, and that will help their already solid staff. Jason Schmidt will help them win games that their lack of offensive firepower does not. San Diego has the best pitching in the division. However, like the Dodgers, they lack offense. Since LA should win the West, San Diego should win second place. The Diamondbacks welcomed Randy Johnson back to the fold, and said good bye to several veterans. Arizona will be sporting a very young team this season. This inexperienced team should be good enough to finish in third place. How the mighty have fallen. San Francisco lost Jason Schmidt to their rival LA Dodgers. Barry Bonds has lost some juice, and the only thing that Giants should be chasing is the home run record and last place. Thankfully for the Giants, they will fall short of last place as that honor will go to the Colorado Rockies.
Final Standings
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Colorado Rockies
Neil Borenstein:Los Angeles Dodgers - The NL West is the division nobody wants to see two teams come out of, and unfortunately that's what ended up happening last season. And it will be the team that was the second NL West team to make the playoffs via the NL Wild Card that will win the division this go around. I think the Los Angeles Dodgers have everything you need to be a competitive group in MLB. Their starting staff is very strong, with newcomer Jason Schmidt to lead the way ahead of Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf and probably Mark Hendrickson (who is in the mix with two other pitchers for the fifth spot.) That's a pretty good group from top to bottom. In the bullpen, Takashi Saito is going to take over for good as the closer, with a bunch of good talent leading up to him in Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Brett Tomko and Yhency Brazobán. I like the depth of the bullpen and the fact that they have a few guys who could be really good late in games.
In the field and at the plate, the Dodgers also have the right tools to get the job done. Rafael Furcal's injury is a reason to be concerned at the moment, but word is that it's only day-to-day, which means he could miss little to no time. If he is okay to play from basically day one, the Dodgers are set all around. He is going to be a big producer along with Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez, Wilson Betemit and Juan Pierre. There's a good mix of speed, hitting for contact and power with these players. I don't see any large weakness surrounding this team and I think they are really head and heels above the rest of the competition in the NL West.
The San Francisco Giants went out and signed Barry Zito to an $18-million a season over seven years deal, and he leads a very nice rotation that also includes Matt Cain, Noah Lowry and Matt Morris. I'm not a big fan of the Giants' bullpen though. They have the firepower to do the job at the plate with Barry Bonds, Ray Durham, Pedro Feliz and perhaps even Randy Winn, but I just don't think the team has quite enough to win the division over the very solid Dodgers.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a really nice looking starting rotation on paper with Brandon Webb, Randy John, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis, along with a decent looking bullpen with José Valverde, Jorge Julio and Brandon Lyon. But this team has nobody special outside of maybe Eric Byrnes at the plate and that will be the team's downfall a sub par offense.
The San Diego Padres have really good pitching, especially with Greg Maddux, Jake Peavy and Chris Young in the starting rotation and Scott Linebrink and Trevor Hoffman in the bullpen. But at the plate, there's nothing and I mean nothing to go nuts over. Mike Cameron and Adrián González can only do so much and it won't be enough to do any better than third-best in the division. And while the Colorado Rockies have some nice little pieces in their lineup in Garrett Atkins, Matt Holiday and Brad Hawpe, Todd Helton is not a guarantee to get back to the player we all know and love and the team's pitching outside of Brian Fuentes as the team's closer is hardly exciting.
Final Standings
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Michael Bauer:Colorado Rockies - They are the NL "Worst", but I think this year they may shake that tag. This is one division where all the teams could win the West crown. The Diamondbacks have too many problems, but have a ton of potential and should make Arizona baseball exciting outside of spring training. San Diego still has the best rotation and closer in the division, but the offense just doesn't look to be there yet. San Fran is nothing without Barry Bonds, end of story. The Dodgers will make this division come down to the wire with a great rotation, solid bullpen, and a fast lineup with little power. Colorado though has potentially the most explosive National League offense west of the Mississippi and surprising pitching staff. I think it's enough to power past the Dodgers and put them into the postseason.
Justin Baragona:Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers seem just a little bit better than the Padres this year due to the signing of Jason Schmidt. If Nomar can stay healthy (a big IF) and Luis Gonzalez and Jeff Kent still have anything left in the tank, this team should be able to take the division.
Jason Easley:Los Angeles Dodgers - The Giants are too old. The Rockies are too young. This leaves the Padres and Dodgers to battle it out for the division crown. The Padres offense was bad last year and it might be even worse this year. The Dodgers are the most complete team, so they will win the division.
Chris Kovatsh:Arizona Diamondbacks - Hopefully for them Randy Johnson will be back in his Diamondback form and have an outstanding season. I'm sure Webb will be in his Cy Young winning form again this year. The rest of this division is pretty weak so they probably can sneak their way to the top.
Justin Pelletier:Los Angles Dodgers - The West is wide open. I could see any of the five teams winning but, in reality, it comes down to LA, SF and Zona. The Snakes brought back The Unit and I wouldn't be surprised to see his career rejuvenated back in the desert, at least for a couple more years. He'll team with Brandon Webb and Livan Hernandez for a tough front end of the rotation. The reality is that, even if Stephen Drew turns out to be a monster, Arizona doesn't have enough sticks. The Giants added Barry Zito and the locker room seems to be so much fun now but the addition of Zito only would have allowed them to get over the hump if they kept Jason Schmidt. The Giants are too old and will rely too heavily on Barry Bonds' and his misadventures in left field. The Dodgers will take this division because they added Schmidt and Randy Wolfe to already-in-place starters Brad Penny and Derek Lowe to make the most formidable four deep rotation in the NL. Jeff Kent will rebound from an off year, and Nomar Garciaparra will continue to thrive at first.
Ian Smart:Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers have the most formidable pitching staff in the entire league. Jason Schmidt, Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, and Derek Lowe are four pitchers who can win a game for you every night. The Dodger's also have an enviable lineup that will be able to produce ample run support for those off games or when the Dodger's have to face other strong staffs such as San Diego's.
Dan Owen:Los Angeles Dodgers - It's not so much that the Dodgers are going to win the division as much as it is the other teams are going to lose it. Arizona made a big trade for Randy Johnson in hopes of getting the fans back to the stadium, but when Johnson struggles it's going to end up backfiring. The Rockies have some nice talent, but need a little more time to get everything just right. The spacious Petco Park is going to leave San Diego hurting for runs. They will always stay close because of their great pitching staff, but they are going to be on the losing end of a lot of close games. That leaves San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Giants are a pretty good team, and I expect them to be in first place for most of the season, but as they get down the stretch Barry Bonds' home run chase is going to become too much of a distraction. In the end, the Dodgers will emerge as the victors behind the best pitching staff in the league.
American League West Division Champion
Samuel Berman:Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - This was a tough one to call, as I think that the division will be a ways back from the others, meaning there's only one postseason representative coming from the left coast. Texas is out, mostly because I couldn't even remember that they were in this division. Also, Seattle, though poised to come back from a pair of dismal seasons, still seems a year away from putting together a real run at the division. That leaves Oakland and Los Angeles, both of whom seem to contend every season. I think that Oakland will miss Barry Zito a lot more than they may think, and the loss of Frank Thomas to Toronto will certainly put a major dent in the team's offensive productivity. Meanwhile, the Angels added Gary Matthews Jr., who despite controversy could still help boost the team's defense while hitting .300 at the plate. Vladimir Guerrero will still put up All Star-quality numbers, and Chone Figgins and Garrett Anderson could easily regain some of their form from two and three seasons ago. The return of 2005 Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon should help solidify the rotation, and allow the talented John Lackey to feast on number two starters, rather than have to face opposing aces as he did last season. Still, don't expect the Angels to walk away with this one, as the A's will certainly make them work for it.
Sat:Oakland Athletics - I have to go with the A's because I don't see the Angels surpassing the A's. The biggest acquisition for the Angels was Gary Mathews and that would have been the worst signing of the year if the Royals hadn't signed Gil Meche. The main problem for the Angels is that they can't score. I've been thinking that the Rangers would make a run for the past few years, but it hasn't happened, so I'm not making that mistake again. The A's are going to be weaker with the loss of Barry Zito and Frank Thomas. Zito can be replaced by Harden (if Harden can stay healthy which I think he can this year) and Thomas can be replaced by Piazza. Billy Beane will make sure that this team is in the playoffs.
Ronny Sarnecky:Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - The Angels have youth, speed, power, good defense, and solid pitching. This blend will help them rebound from last season's second place finish to capture the AL West title. Oakland, with the loss of the Big Hurt and Barry Zito should have enough in the tank to take second. The Texas Rangers will take further steps to improve, but will remain in third. Meanwhile, the Mariners will continue to be cellar dwellers.
Final Standings
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
Neil Borenstein:Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - I learned a while ago that it's never a smart thing to bet against the Oakland Athletics. But, one team can only lose just so many players before it becomes impossible to recover and beat out the competition over a 162-game schedule. In a two-year span, the A's have lost their top three starting pitchers Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson via trade; Barry Zito via free agency. And now, the Athletics have an ace in Rich Harden that has hardly proved he can remain and who, despite some solid starts in the nine he played last season, also had ones where he left a little bit to be desired. Even with the addition of Mike Piazza as a designated hitter and Shannon Stewart for the outfield, I don't think the A's have what it takes to overcome this season. Now, I don't doubt they will be a competitive team. But, in the end, they're going to be nothing more than second best in the AL West.
They will, however, be right behind the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels, who finished four games behind the Athletics last season, have a really good all-around team that beats out every other team in the division. Their starting pitching staff consists of Jered Weaver (who should miss about two weeks to start the season), Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Ervin Santana and John Saunders. Plus, in June, they will get back the 2005 AL Cy Young Award winner, Bartolo Colon. Now that has to be the best looking starting rotation in the division bar none. In the bullpen, the Angels have some great relievers that are going to make at least the eighth and ninth innings very comfortable. Francisco Rodriguez, who led the league in saves with 47 last season, will close out games with other tremendous talents like Justin Speier and Scot Shields ready to take the ball in front of him.
Offensively, I'd say the Texas Rangers have the most lethal lineup. But Texas doesn't have Vladimir Guerrero. And it doesn't have a player that could once again become a lethal hitter at the plate for the Angles in Garret Anderson. And it doesn't have Juan Rivera. And it doesn't have Gary Matthews, J well, okay, he doesn't matter so much since he's not going to be as big a contributor as his contract would have you believe. But still, even with Chone Figgins set to miss about five-to-six weeks to start the season, the Angels have a very decent source of run production. The basic thing for the Angels is that they are starting the season with injury trouble. One hurting month shouldn't set them back all that much, though. With Texas, I already said they probably have the best offense out there, led by first baseman Mark Teixeira and Michael Young. But I don't think they're going to be able to bail out a sub par starting pitching staff. Texas' bullpen is decent looking with Akinori Otsuka slated for setup duties and Eric Gagne ready to get back into the closing game. But the games need to be close enough to get to these guys first.
The Seattle Mariners could be a dark horse here. The team finished last season as the last place team in the AL West with a 78-84 record, but there is an optimism surrounding this team. I still can't believe it traded Rafael Soriano, who could seriously be a closer on any team in this league. But otherwise, the team has a decent looking pitching staff that starting with a slimmed down and hopefully improved Felix Hernandez in the starting rotation and J.J. Putz to close out games from the bullpen. Offensively, the team does have some very decent hitters in Richie Sexson, Ichiro Suzuki, Raul Ibanez, Kenji Johjima, Javy Lopez and even Adrian Beltré. I would not be surprised if the Mariners stayed in the thick of things all season long and Texas ended up finishing in last place of the AL West. In the end, though, this division will belong to Angels.
Final Standings
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers
Michael Bauer:Oakland Athletics - There is a reason this is the AL "worst" as no team is very strong, but somebody has to break out. It won't be Seattle. The offense is just not that good, King Felix can't pitch every other day, and the bullpen is weak outside of Putz. It won't be Texas either. Yes they got Gagne, but that might have been a mistake. The offense is still strong in the middle, but the rest of it has yet to produce like they should. And up until a week ago, I would have said the Angels. They have the best rotation and closer in the division, even with Weaver not ready to go to start the year. The offense is very good, though Figgins in the nine hole seems odd. But the whole Matthews deal will send this team into a tailspin which will keep them in it, but fail in the end. Oakland though just seems like the most stable team. The rotation rivals the Angels' rotation and Street is getting better each day as a closer. The lineup has some holes, but I look for Chavez and Piazza to respond big time.
Justin Baragona:Oakland Athletics - They never look like the best team on paper, but for some reason they always seem to be able to make the playoffs. This year is no different. Despite losing their best pitcher to free agency (Barry Zito) and their biggest offensive force (Frank Thomas), I still think this team will pull out the division crown. Danny Haren and Rich Harden are good, young starters, and they added a couple of veterans to a potentially potent, young offense (Shannon Stewart and Mike Piazza).
Jason Easley:Oakland Athletics - This is the division of Good, Mediocre, Bad, and Worse. The good are the Oakland A's, who just keep chugging along every year. They are the most balanced team in the division. The mediocre are the Angels. If they would have gotten some lineup protection for Vlad, they could have contended, but instead, welcome to 83 wins. The bad are the Texas Rangers. The Rangers should have better starting pitching than in years past, but they lost a lot of talent in the off season, so the offense won't be as potent, and the bullpen could have issues, depending on Gagne's health. The worse is the Seattle Mariners. This entire team is a mess. My advice would be for them to resign Ichiro and hire a new GM. This could be a season of poor hitting, pitching, and defense for the Safeco Field faithful. It's a good thing that they have the Seahawks to look forward to.
Chirs Kovatsh:Texas Rangers - Well Sammy Sosa seems to have decided that he wants to play ball again batting .417 with 3 HRs in like 36 AB. That's pretty impressive, now hopefully he'll stay healthy. I'm sure Kevin Millwood will have another solid year as well.
Justin Pelletier:Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim - There is very little question about this one. Even with Bartolo Colon on the shelf to start the season, the Angles tout a strong staff and K-Rod in the pen. Chone Figgins, Howie Kenrick and Mike Napoli will be the catalysts while Vlad Guerrero will continue to be the engine that drives the offense. DH Juan Rivera will start the season on the DL but once he come back the Angles will be as dangerous as any time in the Junior Circuit.
Ian Smart:Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - No team underachieved last year the way the Angels did, and this year they will make amends. The Oakland Athletics have been able to fill the holes in the ship, because they have the best general manger in all of baseball, bar none. Even with Billy Beane at the helm, the Angels have assembled a great pitching staff, a strong one through nine, even if Gary Matthews Jr. is suspended or arrested, but most importantly they have the money to go after that big name player when the stretch drive comes. Make no mistake, this is a two team race, and it will be a close one, but the cash strapped Athletics cannot afford to buy a player for September, whereas the Angels can, which will enable them to win the Division. Texas' pitching staff, although improved, is simply not good enough to contend. The x-factor in this division is the Seattle Mariners, who are a scary team, not because they are successful, but because the lineup has the potential to go off at anytime and score a lot of runs. Also look for Felix Hernandez to re-discover his 2005 form.
Dan Owen:Oakland Athletics - This is a tough one, to be sure. I was really leaning towards the Angels for this one, but now I am not so sure. Their big off season acquisition, Gary Matthews Jr., is caught up in the steroid scandal, and to be honest, he seems like a likely player to have done them. You don't go from career bench player to $10 million a year player in one year without some kind of help. That loss will set the Angels back enough that they won't be able to top the Athletics. I think that Shannon Stewart is going to have a great season with the A's, and his performance will be just enough to get the team into the playoffs.
