411's MLB Opening Day 2007 Roundtable: Central Division
Posted by Dan Owen on 03.28.2007
Day 3 of our roundtable coverage takes us to the NL and AL Central Divisions. Arguably the two most competive division in baseball with the super-competitive AL Central with four legitimate contenders, and the NL Central with the reigning World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals. So come in and check out 411's writers' thoughts!
We're back for our third day of coverage of the upcoming Major League Baseball season. Today we'll be taking a look at arguably the two most competitive divisions in baseball, the NL and AL Central Divisions. In case you've been living under a rock the past two days, you can check out the East Division Roundtable here. Before we get started, let's meet the participants.
Appearing in his tenth different column here on 411, it's Samuel Berman.
Samuel Berman:St. Louis Cardinals - The division seems wide open with the massive additions that the Cubs and Astros made in the off season, but the Cardinals are the defending World Champions, and that has to count for something. Their rotation could take a big hit with the losses of Jeff Weaver (to Seattle) and Jeff Suppan (to division-rival Milwaukee), but when you start Chris Carpenter every five days, you're still guaranteed some success. Anthony Reyes could end up being a huge X-Factor for this club as well, as he has steadily improved over the last season-and-a-half. Adam Kennedy will also be an underrated pickup for this club, as he could be a very solid contributor deep in the order. Oh, and they still have Albert Pujols.
Sat:Houston Astros - I am an Astros fan, so maybe I am really stretching, but here is my thought process. The Cardinals lose Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, so their pitching has to be worse than last year. The Astros replaced Andy Pettitte with Jason Jennings. The rest of the starters are the same. Brad Lidge is bound to be better after an awful year. The offense is much better this year with the addition of Carlos Lee and Morgan Ensberg will most likely gain is 2005 form because he is returning from an injury.
Ronny Sarnecky:St. Louis Cardinals - "The sky is falling! The sky is falling!" That's what people are screaming on the rooftops in regards to the Cardinals. However, they still have Albert and Carpenter, so they still have a chance. A divisional title should be theirs again. No Pettite, and perhaps no Clemens= no divisional championship for the Astros, although, second place will be in their reach. The Cub$ spent a lot of money this year to get out of the cellar. While you shouldn't expect a worst to first scenario, the Cubs will be vastly improved from last season. Another team who should be improved, as is starting to become a lot of "experts" sleeper pick is the Brewers. I don't foresee the Brew Crew becoming this year's version of the 2006 Tigers. However, they are definitely a team on the rise. Battling for last place is the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds. Last season, the Pirates were not as bad as their 67 wins indicated. They should have wins in the 70s range, and finish ahead of the Big Red Machine in the standings.
Final Standings
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Houston Astros
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds
Neil Borenstein:Houston Astros - I really want the defending World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals to take the NL Central again this year. But with a starting pitching staff that is pretty weak after Chris Carpenter and a bullpen that's also weak behind Jason Isringhausen, I don't think even Albert Pujols can save them at the plate with what could possibly be the first 50-home run season of his career. The Cardinals' offense is good outside of Pujols, too, with Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and David Eckstein still there. But the team's pitching all over is just not good enough to last in the division. And, to be honest, I'm not completely surprised since it's very hard to play at the same level the Cardinals played last season after losing two very reliable middle-rotation starters in Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis over the offseason and not making the effort to really replace them.
So, with the Cardinals out, somebody new needs to step in as the leaders of the NL Central for the first time since 2003. And that team is going to be the Houston Astros. The Astros no longer have Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens is on the road to finding retirement again, but Roy Oswalt leads a rotation that is probably one of the better ones in the NL Central. It might not be the best, but it's better than St. Louis' and Pittsburgh's, and is at least on par with what Milwaukee has to offer. Behind Oswalt is a rotation of Woody Williams, Brandon Backe, Jason Jennings and a fifth spot that's still up for grabs between Wandy Rodriguez, Fernando Nieve, Matt Albers and Chris Sampson. Whoever doesn't make it out of those guys will probably be middle relievers in the bullpen that already had Dan Wheeler for late relief duty and Brad Lidge for closing. Lidge, who had a terrible year last season, needs to prove himself and get back to the game he had two-three years ago, which I think he can do. Though not the best the division has to offer, I think Houston's pitching is good enough to keep in the mix.
Their offense helps push them over the top. Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee are going to be two tough batters for opposing pitchers, as will Craig Biggio, Morgan Ensberg and maybe even Jason Lane if he can play more like he did in 2005 rather than last year. Houston has one of the better all around teams in the division and that's going to help them. If Clemens does return to play in Houston this season, then that definitely pushes the Astros over the top. But even if he doesn't, I think the team has what it takes to win the division, even if it's just by a narrow margin.
The team I think they'll beat out for the division is the Cubs. The first thing you notice is the monster offense this team is going to boast. The middle of their batting alone is scary with Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. But lets not forget Jacques Jones, Michael Barrett and Cliff Floyd (who should have limited playing time, but can still be am important contributor off the bench.) This is a pretty scary lineup. Pitching-wise, there is Carlos Zambrano, who is in a contract year and has an agenda. Money is the best motivation after all. After him is Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Mark Prior and Wade Miller, Juan Mateo or Rich Hill to fill the fifth spot. As Prior will probably visit the disabled list within a week or two, that will probably open the fourth spot in the rotation as well. The Cubs' bullpen doesn't thrill me, as I still don't believe Ryan Dempster is a very good closer and Kerry Wood is likely going to end up back on the DL like Prior. Overall, I think the Cubs will be the toughest competition for the Astros, but in the end, I believe Houston will walk out with the division.
Pittsburgh is getting better, but not even Adam LaRoche is going to hit enough home runs to the Pirates in the running with the big boys in the division. And while I like Milwaukee's starting rotation of Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas, along with a bullpen that has Derrick Turnbow and Francisco Cordero, the team's offense doesn't thrill me. Bill Hall and Prince Fielder are only going to do so much as this team doesn't really have one true power hitter in the lineup. They'll keep things interesting, but Milwaukee is not going to have enough to keep up.
The Cincinnati Reds basically have a couple of good hitters in their lineup in Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn with Edwin Encarnacion and Brandon Phillips right behind as good sources of secondary production, but the Reds really just don't have enough weapons at the plate. And pitching-wise, behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, the starting staff doesn't thrill me and neither does the team's bullpen.
Final Standings
1. Houston Astros
2. Chicago Cubs
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds
Michael Bauer:Chicago Cubs - And then we go to the hardest division that doesn't get the "worst" tag added to it. The division overall got a ton better. Pittsburgh will be a better team this year, but this division won't help matters. Milwaukee just has too many question marks surrounding them. Cincinnati might make some noise, but like last year, I don't see them going the distance. Houston lost two men in the best rotation ever put together, and while the offense will be there, it may not be enough. It comes down to the Cubs and Cardinals and the loser gets the wildcard. St. Louis is still dangerous, but I question the health of Edmonds and Rolen and the decision of having Braden Looper as a starter. The Cubs have a very deep rotation, even if Mark Prior can't stay healthy and the offense is just down right scary when compared to St. Louis. The Cubs have the tools this year to make a serious run after the Pennant.
Justin Baragona:St. Louis Cardinals - This is completely a homer pick (I live in St. Louis) but they are the defending world champs and they underperformed last season prior to the playoffs. The starting rotation is a bit iffy after Carpenter, with Adam Wainwright moving from the pen, Anthony Reyes pitching in his first full season and Mark Mulder coming back from an awful, injury-ravaged 2006. I still can't pick the Cubs over the Cards, even with all their off season moves and splashy signings. They look good on paper, but can you imagine a team winning games with Alfonso Soriano patrolling center field in a place called the Windy City?
Jason Easley:St. Louis Cardinals - This division is a total train wreck. The winner of the division will be the Cardinals, but it all depends on how their patched together rotation, and the ever brittle Rolan and Edmonds hold up. Speaking of brittle, the Cubs spent lots of money, but did they spend it well? The Brewers could challenge in this division. The Astros are on their way down. The Reds will have their usual good first half, then fall of the face of the Earth. The real surprise here could be the Pirates, but I'll talk more about them later. The winner of the division will be the Cardinals.
Chris Kovatsh:St. Louis Cardinals - Even though they didn't have the best record and realistically had no business being in the playoffs at all, they did great in the postseason and hopefully for them it will carry on into the 2007 season.
Justin Pelletier:St. Louis Cardinals - People are down on the Cards this season and I'm not sure why. They are just too talented not to win the, suddenly, competitive Central. They have the best player in baseball smack dab in the middle of their line up and their staff is anchored by one of the top four or five pitchers in the league. Adam Kennedy will revive his double play combination with Eckstein and Rolen will come back to form after struggling with injuries. Chicago is vastly improved but it still relies too heavily on Mark Prior for a big season to occur. Houston will be in the mix again now that they have Carlos Lee to pair with Lance Berkman, and especially if Roger Clemens returns to the fold. For the Cards, Jim Edmonds' injury is a concern but not enough to pick against St. Louie.
Ian Smart:St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals have a strong team, and are the defending Champions. The rest of the Division is weak, and should not be much of an obstacle in the path to a defense of the NL Central title. Look for the Milwaukee Brewers to finish second in this Division behind a strong staff, and a dangerous heart of the batting order. The loss of Andy Pettitte has left a gapping hole in the Astros rotation that you would need a Rocket to fill, and even that might not be enough.
Dan Owen:St. Louis Cardinals - Plenty of experts out there will say that the Cardinals' pitching rotation isn't going to be what it used to be. And they'd be right, but in the long run, it's just not going to matter that much. The Cardinals have too much offensive talent, and that's what will win them the division. Of course you have to start with Pujols, who is the best hitter in baseball. I expect Scott Rolen to have a better season another year removed from his shoulder surgery. And Jim Edmonds can still put up decent numbers. But even if Edmonds falls apart, the Cards have So Taguchi on the bench, who could be starting for a number of big league ball clubs, so they will be fine. Add to that the fact that Adam Kennedy is reuniting with his former infield mate David Eckstein, and you've got one hell of a ball club. The pitching won't be good enough to win them a World Series, but it will be serviceable. Meanwhile, in Chicago, it will be pitching that costs them their shot at the playoffs.
American League Central Division Champion
Samuel Berman:Minnesota Twins - The Twins have last year's AL MVP (Justin Morneau) and Cy Young winner (the incomparable Johan Santana), which is enough for me right there. Because that might not be enough for some, remember that they also have Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer and one of the game's best closers in Joe Nathan. The only setback is the loss of last year's rookie phenomenon, Francisco Liriano, who is slated to miss the entire season following surgery. Superior defense and solid hitting should help Minnesota outlast Cleveland to win the division, as I think both the White Sox and Tigers will take big steps back this year. Remember, it took career years from almost everyone on their roster for Detroit to hold off Minnesota last season. I don't see Detroit repeating that feat, regardless of Jim Leyland's claims that their season "wasn't a fluke". Remember Chris Shelton's performance last April? I'll believe Detroit wasn't a fluke when they prove it. A final note on Minnesota: look for the incredibly under-the-radar pickup of utility infielder Jeff Cirillo to help in ways few would believe. Cirillo is not only capable of playing superior defense at all four infield positions, but is solid at the plate (.319 batting average in 112 games last season for Milwaukee) and is one of those "good clubhouse guys" whose contributions to a team can't truly be measured by statistics.
Sat:Minnesota Twins - I see the Twins winning this division for a few reasons. One, they have the best pitcher in the league in Johan Santana. They also have a ton of great hitters with Hunter in a contract year. The Twins will be motivated to win because these players don't have that much time to win a title together. The White Sox and the Indians will cause problems for the Twins, but both teams will fall short of the playoffs.
Ronny Sarnecky:Minnesota Twins - In the AL Central, it will be a dog fight. Aside from Kansas City, the rest of the division should battle tooth and nail to win the division. With Johan Santana on the team, Minnesota should take the division. Chicago should rebound from last season's disappointing third place finish to land in second place, just short of the division title. Detroit should slump a little after their World Series season, as Chicago did last year, and take third. Cleveland, while taking fourth, will show the promise that most people expected from the Tribe last year.
Final Standings
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals
Neil Borenstein:Detroit Tigers - They may not have won the World Series in 2006, losing out to the St. Louis Cardinals, but the Detroit Tigers proved they could be a contender in the American League. And though they lost out on the AL Central last year thanks to a late surge by the Minnesota Twins, I still think the Tigers had a better overall season than Johan Santana and co. With the Tigers' starting rotation intact from last year with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers and Mike Maroth ready to take the mound – giving the Tigers a chance to win every single game each one of them goes.
In the bullpen, the Tigers are really hard to beat and might actually be only second-best to the Twins, which should be pretty interesting to track throughout the season. The Tigers have Todd Jones returning as their closer with two other relievers capable of taking over that role at any point – Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya. Plus, players like Wilfredo Ledezma and Jamie Walker aren't too shabby as relievers either. Detroit has a very deep bullpen. Offensively, it's hard to believe the Tigers even added Gary Sheffield considering the weapons already in the team's arsenal. Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Curtis Granderson, Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, Placido Polanco and Craig Monroe added with Sheffield are just a bunch of lethal players at the plate that are going to give other teams trouble 162 games out of the year.
No other team in the AL Central matches the depth of the Tigers' roster. The Twins have one real surefire starter going into the season in Santana since Francisco Liriano will be out for the whole season. And though Minnesota's bullpen is pretty clutch, I don't think it's going to be clutch enough to compensate for a lack of truly reliable starting pitching.
The Chicago White Sox still need to wake up from last season, and though they have the weapons to compete, I don't think they'll hang with the Tigers and Twins, who will be rolling along all season. Plus, the White Sox' starting rotation doesn't excite me nearly as much with Freddy Garcia in it.
The Cleveland Indians could be a dark horse and I wouldn't be all that surprised if they were in the thick of things the entire season. They have a solid top three in starting pitchers with Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia and a bullpen with Rafael Betancourt, Roberto Hernandez and Joe Borowski is not the most amazing thing ever but is also nothing to scoff at. Offensively, the team has some weapons in Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Johnny Peralta and Casey Blake. But, I think Cleveland is still growing a bit and is at least one more season away from being heavily in competition with the other top teams in the division. And Kansas City is, well, Kansas City. Gil Meche is no savior, so here's to another losing seasons for the Royals. Cheers!
Final Standings
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals
Michael Bauer:Detroit Tigers - If you were tell me that the AL Central would be the best division in the Major Leagues, I'd laugh. I would also be out a ton of money. This division is power packed and even the Kansas City Royals spent some money. Too bad that the Royals are in this division, because they just can not contend. At least they will be better than 20% of the league this year and steal some wins from contending teams. Minnesota will contend with a solid lineup and perhaps the best closer in the game today. But the rotation will be a nightmare until Liriano comes back in 2008. Cleveland will contend with an amazing top to bottom lineup, but I can already see Borowski getting blown up as the closer. The Chicago White Sox will contend, but they look fragile already in the bullpen and with Podsednik. Detroit won it all last year and just got better by adding Sheffield. That's scary and if Detroit doesn't make the World Series, I'll be shocked.
Justin Baragona:Cleveland Indians - I am going way out on a limb here, considering the Tigers, Twins and White Sox are in this division, and all 3 teams won at least 90 games last year. However, the Indians probably have the most talent in this division, and just barely missed the playoffs in 2005. I expect Westbrook to rebound from a sub-par 2006 season and the offense to be one of the best in the league thanks to Sizemore, Hafner and Victor Martinez.
Jason Easley:Detroit Tigers - Now this is a fun division. You could probably make the argument for any of these teams, except KC, to win the division. Three of these teams could win 90 games. I think the Twins are due to take a step back without Lirano and Radke, but this team is solid. If they can find average starting pitching to go with Santana, thy will be in the hunt. Their bullpen is excellent. The White Sox have the look of a team on the way down. If they end up dealing Buerhle and Garland after the All Star break, then next to last place won't be out of the question. Last place will belong to the Royals, who finally spent some money, and may avoid another 100 loss season. The Royals may finish last more so because the teams ahead of them are that good, even if they improve it won't be enough this year. The Indians are looking at a rebound season. All the pieces are there, and I think that they win 90 games. However, the best team in the division will once again be the Tigers. No one should be surprised, if they go back to the World Series.
Chris Kovatsh:Chicago White Sox - They still do have an outstanding team and the fact that Ozzie Guillen is the best coach in the league (my opinion) will help the rebound from last years disappointing outing.
Justin Pelletier:Detroit Tigers - Cleveland seems to be the fashionable choice this spring, and for the life of me I can't figure out why. After C.C. Sabathia, its staff is filled with soft tossers and reclamation projects. Its lineup is riddled with underachievers (Jhonny Peralta) or straight up average players (Trot Nixon & David Dellucci). Detroit, on the other hand, has flame-throwers on the staff, three guys in the pen with closers stuff and a lineup with hungry young lions and veterans that, unlike Cleveland, have already proven they can be counted on. Chicago and Minnesota will both be contenders, but each has its problems with its staff, albeit opposite problems. For the Chi Sox the problem is age. Buehrle, Garland and Contreras have each proven to be solid starters but it's only a matter of time before one of them falters. For the Twins the issue is that they don't have a reliable starter after all-world Johan Santana.
Ian Smart:Detroit Tigers - Top to bottom, the Detroit Tigers are the best team in the American League. Their lineup is strong, and the addition of Gary Sheffield can only help a team that made it all the way to the World Series last year, and added the power hitter that they were missing last year. The staff has 5 legitimate threats to win fifteen games, and with Todd Jones is the bullpen and Joel Zumaya waiting, the Tigers looked primed to return to the playoffs. The only thing that can stand in their way this year is the fatigue on their staff. At the end of last season, the Tigers fell out of the Division lead, but with a year of experience, the Tigers should be able to avoid a similar fate. The rest of the division is strong, and could put pressure on the Tigers, but as with the Yankees in the AL East, the Tigers are simply too good not to be the best team in the AL Central over 162 games.
Dan Owen:Minnesota Twins - Alright, first let's just make it clear that I am a lifetime Twins fan. However, I haven't hesitated to pick against them before. This year shows a marked departure from their normal style which is pitching first, then maybe a little offense. The enter the season with the best offensive catcher in baseball, Joe Mauer, and the reigning AL MVP, Justin Morneau. Add to that solid players like Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer, and they look to have a formidable lineup. The pitching rotation is another story. If it was a singing group, they could call it Johan and the Question Marks. Santana will win another Cy Young because he is just that good. After that, they have no proven players. What's going to save this team is their incredible young talent at starting pitcher. Matt Garza, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Slowey will all see time in the majors. Just like last year, when the Twins made a comeback with young offensive players, this year the Twins will make a comeback with young pitching stars. Something to watch for this year is the Detroit Tigers' mega collapse. It took a career year from just about every player on that team for them to make the playoffs. This year will be another fourth place finish for the franchise as it turns out most of those players really aren't that good.
