411's MLB Opening Day 2007 Roundtable: Wild Card
Posted by Dan Owen on 03.29.2007
We wrap up our regular season picks as the 411 staff picks their Wild Card team from each league. The Wild Card team has a history of doing big things in the playoffs, so this could be the most crucial pick for the 2007 season. Will both the Yankees and the Red Sox make the playoffs this year? Find out inside!
It's day 4 and we're still going strong. Today we'll tackle Bud Selig's one positive legacy in baseball, the Wild Card. The most intriguing playoff contender, it's usually the team that enters the playoffs hot and causes the most ruckus. So who will our 411 staff pick? You'll just have to read on to find out. But first, let's meet the writers.
Appearing in his tenth different column here on 411, it's Samuel Berman.
Samuel Berman:Milwaukee Brewers - An unlikely pick, but not a crazy one. The Brewers will have one of the best one-to-five pitching rotations in all of baseball this year, going Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano (who spent most of the last two seasons as the team's ace), Jeff Suppan, Claudio Vargas, and Dave Bush, with prospect Carlos Villanueva waiting in the wins should the team choose to move Vargas or Bush to long relief. The loss of Carlos Lee at last year's trading deadline will no doubt hurt the team's offense in terms of slugging, but the coming-of-age development of prized the do-everything Bill Hall will help to offset the loss. Hall, for the record, finished last season with 35 homeruns while playing primarily shortstop and only seeing part-time action for the first two months of the season. He moves to the outfield this year to make room for a returning J.J. Hardy, who was just starting to hit an offensive stride when injuries sidelined him last year. Additionally, Rickie Weeks returns at second, ultra-talented Prince Fielder continues to anchor the team at first base, and Corey Hart, a prized prospect with as-yet-untapped power and base running potential, will begin the season starting in left field. Derrick Turnbow's inexplicable self-destruction as the team's closer last season gave way to the acquisition of proven stopper Francisco Cordero from Texas, and it seems as if Cordero will remain in closer's role this year, with Turnbow getting the chance to rehab his career while sharing the job as the team's setup man with the talented Matt Wise. Finally, the off-season addition of catcher Johnny Estrada will do nothing but help the club, both offensively and defensively. Look for this team to surprise a lot of people and contend from the very first day of the season. If their season isn't derailed by injuries as it was last year (Sheets, Hardy, Weeks and now-departed pitcher Tomo Ohka all missed extended periods with various ailments), this team seems positioned to make a major jump as its young core continues to improve.
Sat:St. Louis Cardinals - Tough to pick a wild card team here, but I'll take the Cardinals. They still have the best player in baseball and a good coach. Add the fact that they are in the NL Central, where they will pick up some easy win against the Cubs (I don't see them doing much), the Pirates, and the Reds (still a year away).
Ronny Sarnecky:Philadelphia Phillies - The competition for the NL Wild Card should come down to a four team race between the Phillies, Marlins, Astros, and the Padres. The Padres have high quality pitching, and should be battling tooth and nail against the Dodgers for the NL West title this season. At the same time, San Diego should be at or near the top of the wild card hunt. The Astros are the wild card in the wild card hunt. What I mean is that their hopes for winning the wild card spot depend on if they resign Roger Clemens. Right now, they have a stud pitcher in Cy Young candidate Roy Oswalt. They lost Andy Pettite in the off-season, and desperately need Clemens to team with Oswalt as Houston's two headed pitching monster. Without Clemens, it will be hard for the Astros to obtain the wild card. Another wild card contender would be the Marlins. They are a young team with another year under their belt. Last year, they overcame extremely low expectations, and helped former manager Joe Girardi capture the 2006 NL Manager of the Year award. This year, while he is gone, the team is more experienced, and the players a little more mature. Unless Dontrelle Willis gets traded, he should help anchor a young pitching staff that proved to be on its way to becoming an elite staff in the course of the next few years.
Unfortunately for these teams, the wild card winner will be the Philadelphia Phillies. They have the hitting, and now the pitching to match that will finally land them into the post-season. They have a great chance to overtake the pitching depleted New York Mets for the division title. While they should fall short in their pursuit of the NL East crown, they will not fail in their quest to make the post season.
Neil Borenstein:Philadelphia Phillies - Yeah, they're finally going to do it. Outside of a sub par bullpen, I think the Phillies finally have all the pieces they need to actually make the playoff via the NL Wild Card spot. Their starting rotation is finally where the team needs it to be to be competitive, with the biggest and best addition being Freddy Garcia. The team has a lot of weapons at the plate, including Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, and I think the confidence everybody gained from last season will continue through to 2007. The San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals should also make good runs for the fourth playoff spot, but in the end, I think it's finally Philadelphia's season to narrowly make the postseason instead of just narrowly missing it.
Michael Bauer:St. Louis Cardinals - Like I said before, the NL Central is the hardest division to pick as they are the best division in the National League. Philly and the Dodgers will probably comes the closest, but the Cardinals are just too good to not in the postseason.
Justin Baragona:Florida Marlins - As I said earlier, Florida has a very talented, young team. They were in the Wild Card hunt late last year. I think they go over the top and make it this year.
Jason Easley:New York Mets - The NL is filled with flawed teams. Even the good teams have flaws. That being said, I think the Mets, Cubs, and Padres are the top 3 contenders for the Wild Card. The Braves, Brewers, Marlins and D-Backs should hang around and get a sniff of Wild Card Fever….Catch it!!! The Mets are the best of the flawed teams. Their only issue is starting pitching. The Cubs will hit, but they have pitching issues in both starters and the pen, and this team's defense could be ugly again. The Padres can't even get a hit while riding in the team bus. They can be counted on to once again waste lots of good pitching this season.
Chris Kovatsh:New York Mets - Their team is too good to not make the playoffs, Carlos Delgado and Pedro will bring this team right back into the World Series hunt.
Justin Pelletier:Milwaukee Brewers - I know I picked the Brew Crew to win the Wild Card last year and…well let's just say that didn't work out so well. But this year will be different. Ben Sheets will stay healthy and the acquisition of Jeff Suppan and the continued maturation of Chris Capuano and Dave Bush will prove to be the difference. The Brewers have a ton of young talent just itching to break out. Prince Fielder, Bill Hall, Rickie Weeks are all set for all star seasons, while J.J. Hardy is ready for a break out year. With all they young talent their future looks very bright. You add their new right fielder, Corey Hart, and the future looks so bright the Brewers may have to do this.
Ian Smart:Philadelphia Phillies - General Manager Pat Gillick knows a thing or two about building a winning franchise, and he has shown it in Philadelphia. A year ago I would have never thought that the Phillies would have a chance at making the Playoffs, but Gillick has added the right guys in the right positions, and the young players have been able to take on key roles, and create an atmosphere of success. Guys like Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell are the perfect complements to the rising stars (Utley, Howard and Rollins). The Phillies finished strong last year, and will carry that momentum into this season. Their only challenge will come from their Division rivals the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are always dangerous, and have a fierce middle of the order, but Tim Hudson is not the pitcher he once was, Mike Hampton is hurt again, and shows no real signs of being able to return to his All-Star form, and if Chipper Jones cannot play 150 games then the team will struggle to produce runs.
Dan Owen:New York Mets - The Mets have a great amount of talent. David Wright and Jose Reyes are two of the brightest stars in the game today, and that Carlos Beltran guy isn't too shabby himself. Carlos Delgado provides another great bat and a veteran presence that will help the team too. The pitching staff is decent, not great, but they'll get the job done. Whenever Pedro Martinez comes back, this team will get a bid boost. The bullpen is also pretty good. With Billy Wagner at closer, you've got one solid player, and after that the setup men are top quality too. However, they aren't going to win their division, the upstart Marlins are. New York's problem will be that Pedro and Guillermo Mota are going to be sidelined to start the season. A slow start will cost them the division, but they are going to be hot in September and will take the Wild Card relatively easily, probably by 4.5 games over Houston.
American League Wild Card Winner
Samuel Berman:Cleveland Indians - The Tribe seemed poised to make the leap to World Series contender after a phenomenally successful 2005. Last year didn't work out as planned, but most of the key pieces remain intact, along with some quality additions that should help Cleveland lock up the Wild Card. Travis Hafner remains one of the game's top sluggers, while Grady Sizemore, Casey Blake and Jhonny Peralta continue to improve (particularly Sizemore, a legitimate 30HR-30SB threat this year). They are joined by talented newcomers Trot Nixon, who should quickly earn the cult status with Cleveland's fans that he had with Bostonians, and Josh Barfield, who had a great second half for San Diego last season. Joining them is a pitching staff that includes C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee and Paul Byrd. The bullpen remains a concern, but should hold up well enough, especially as Cleveland's offense puts many games out of reach.
Sat:Boston Red Sox - As I wrote above, the Redo Sox will give the Yankees a run for their money. The offense is flat out scary with the addition of JD Drew. This was a good lineup, but it gets better with Drew. Josh Beckett will be better this year and Schilling will be motivated. The Red Sox's biggest concern is the closer, but I see it being resolved. The Red Sox will fix the closer situation either by trade or somebody stepping up.
Ronny Sarnecky:New York Yankees - The Yankees are the Yankees. I hate to say it, but they are built for getting to the post-season. The competition for the wild card slot will be the Toronto Blue Jays, Oakland A's, and the four headed monster of Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota. Minnesota will be taken out of the equation as they should win the Central Division. Toronto plays a total of 36 games against the Yankees and the Red Sox, so that should get them out of wild card contention. Oakland, while always competitive, has lost a lot this off season, and should decline some. As for the Central teams, they will spend the summer and early fall beating up on each other. This will give the Yankees enough cushion, while playing such low caliber teams like the Devil Rays and Orioles, to take control of the wild card.
Neil Borenstein:Toronto Blue Jays - I thought the Toronto Blue Jays would finish second in the AL East and win the AL Wild Card last season. Well, they did finish second in the AL East and were eight games back in the AL Wild Card race. So, hey, I was close. I just think Toronto is a team that is continuing to improve – offensively and pitching-wise. Frank Thomas is now involved as the designated hitter to help out Troy Glaus and Vernon Wells in the power numbers department, with Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay also there to contribute at the plate. Roy Halladay is the best starting pitcher in the league, in my opinion, and he leads a staff that also has A.J. Burnett (who should be able to win at least 12 games with a mid-3.00 ERA), Gustavo Chacin (who I doubt his recent DUI arrest will play too much of a factor in his play), John Thompson (who only three seasons ago managed a 14-win season with the first sub-4.00 ERA year of his career) and Tomo Okha. It's not the most mesmerizing starting rotation in the league, but if they can all get their heads on straight, they can do well enough to get to B.J. Ryan in the bullpen and let the offense overpower the teams they face. I think the Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics also have a decent shot at the AL Wild Card and should be the teams in heavy competition with the Blue Jays throughout the season.
Michael Bauer:Toronto Blue Jays - Well, I may be crazy but look at it this way. The AL West will not have a second team coming close to this. Heck, I'll be surprised in the division winner has a better record than the wildcard. Boston's issues in the bullpen, Manny's knee, and J.D. Drew will be too great to overcome, and that is assuming the rotation doesn't fall apart. The AL Central will have Cleveland and the White Sox challenge, but those teams will beat each other up so much that Toronto will just be able to creep in. It will be very close though.
Justin Baragona:New York Yankees - And their fans will be disgusted by it.
Jason Easley:Cleveland Indians - If the NL Wild Card will feature the battle of the flawed, then the AL will some really good teams fighting it out for the last playoff spot. There are many serious contenders for the AL Wild Card. The Boston Red Sox will be a little less potent than the Yankees, and will be one of the top teams questing for the at large berth. Everybody else in the AL Central, but the Royals, will be in the hunt, and out West, the Angels still won't protect Vlad enough, but young Mr. Weaver and a solid bull pen will keep them dreaming about the post season into September. Have you seen the trash at the back end of the Twins, starting rotation? They will miss Liarano and Radke immensely. I think we are going to see the Cleveland team that many of us expected last year. Excellent young starting pitching and a fine lineup with Hafner in the middle, but the Tribe must get better defensive play out of the middle of the infield, and hope that their bullpen moves payoff. I think it is going to be a fun season in Cleveland.
Chris Kovatsh:Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay needs to stay healthy for this to happen and they need to have more consistent pitching, but the hitting is definitely there and the addition of Frank Thomas will only help things out.
Justin Pelletier:New York Yankees - As much as I'd like to leave the Yankees out of the playoffs, I can't. A look at their lineup is stunning and even though, new first baseman, Doug Mientkiewicz essentially leaves with batting without a DH because he hits like a pitcher, he is one of the top defensive threes in the league and a clear upgrade from Jason Giambi. Andy Pettitte doesn't make the staff any younger but he does add a solid starter who's accustomed to NY and increases the chances they'll land Clemens. Kei Igawa is underrated and will really bolster the staff as well.
Ian Smart:Oakland Athletics - The best non-division winners will be in the AL East and Central, but they will beat each other enough to prevent any of them from winning a playoff birth. In short, no team from either of those Divisions will be able to runaway from the others, and so each will likely finish with about 90-95 wins. This is not true in the AL West, where only the Athletics and the Angels have strong teams, and should be able to feast on the lowly Rangers and Mariners. The Athletics also have a strong rotation- assuming they can all stay healthy-, and they are a team that will be able to manufacture runs against the poor staffs of their divisional rivals, propelling the team above the rest of the second and third place teams in other divisions. Look for Nick Swisher, and Mike Piazza to have big years, and do not be surprised if Bobby Crosby emerges as one of the top 5 shortstops in the game.
Dan Owen:New York Yankees - This is tough. It hurts me to make this pick, since I've cheered against the Yankees making the playoffs for years, ever since they basically started trying to "buy" championships. But let's face it, their roster is geared specifically towards making the playoffs. And when something doesn't quite work right, they have the resources to pull off the trades that will solve the problem. Their pitching isn't going to be good enough to win the division over the Red Sox, but their offensive is good enough to ensure them a spot in the playoffs. The sad part of this all is that the Yanks don't even deserve to be in the playoffs. Take your pick of the three AL Central teams that won't win the division (my money's on them being the White Sox, Indians, and Tigers), and each one of them is better than the Yankees. However, they are going to play each other 19 times in the season, as well as playing the Twins 19 times. The teams are so evenly matched that they will end up beating each other up and leaving the door open for the Yankees. Unfortunately, the four best teams will not make the playoffs, but life isn't always fair, I suppose.
