MLB Fastball 04.20.07: Phillies In Phanatic Panic?
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 04.20.2007
Someone should tell sports analysts, fans and especially Charlie Manuel that the Phillies have only played 14 games this season. Hey, maybe I will!
NO HITTER!
Yes, it is true – Mark Buehrle is still a pretty damn good starting pitcher.
I have to admit, I never really understood how the man went from Chicago White Sox ace in their 2005 World Series Championship season to complete disaster in 2006. I'm a firm believer that if you've proven before you have the talent to be one of the best, one bad season doesn't knock you off the pedestal. And Buehrle proved on Wednesday night with his no-hitter against the Texas Rangers that he still has what it takes to lead a team's starting rotation. Call me premature on that optimism if you want, but I think that start was exactly what Buehrle needed to get back on track.
The only disappointing part about his no-hitter against the Rangers is that he was only one walk away from a perfect game. He did manage to get the no-hitter by facing the fewest amount of batters possible in a game – 27. And that was thanks to picking off Sammy Sosa at first base after he four-balled him. But still, those opportunities don't come very often and to be so close to a perfect game and just not getting it is a bit of a downer.
But hell, I'm not going to rain on Buehrle's parade. The no-hitter is almost just as hard to get as a perfect game and was still extremely impressive.
The White Sox' starting rotation seems to be getting things in order now. Javier Vazquez is doing decently well right now, with two wins in three starts and a 2.50 ERA. Along with striking out 16 batters, that adds up to a good start to the MLB season. Unfortunately, we shouldn't be stupid enough to believe Vazquez will actually keep this quality of play up throughout the entire season, as he's bound to fall off the wagon at some point and once again become a mid-rotation quality starter again. But, for now, he is playing some good ball off the mound.
José Contreras has also gotten himself in order. After an abysmal start to the season when he surrendered seven earned runs, eight in total, in only one inning of work against Cleveland Indians, it was not a good sign for the AL Central squad trying to prove to everyone that they could overtake the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers and even the Indians as a favorite in the division. Since then, however, Contreras has played stellar ball. He secured a win in his next start against the Oakland Athletics, when he went six innings and only allowed four hits and one run for a 4-1 White Sox victory. And then, in a rematch against the Indians, Contreras lasted five innings and only allowed one hit and two runs, neither one of which was earned. The White Sox did end up losing, and the "L" went to Contreras. But I think just having a better game this go around against Cleveland was a moral victory for Contreras.
Jon Garland still needs some work and John Danks is a rookie that is going to require some leeway to make mistakes this year.
But overall, I think the White Sox are on the right track to getting their starting rotation into something that can compete with the rest of the AL Central. Don't get me wrong, I'm not retracting my sentiments from a couple of weeks ago when I said I would have fired Ozzie Guillen before the season even started. I'd still cut that distraction loose. Plus, the White Sox are still a ways away from being better than Minnesota and Detroit. The White Sox are not in the clear of having to work their butts off if they want to finish in a playoff spot this year, because the odds are still against them.
But I think the starting rotation is improving. And Buerhle's performance Wednesday is a reason to be optimistic that the improvement can continue.
Panic Time For The Phillies?
Is Charlie Manuel reaching his end as Phillies manager?
Fourteen games have been played in the Philadelphia Phillies 2007 season.
They are coming off a win against the Washington Nationals. The Phillies combined for 10 hits in the game and four runs. They held Washington to only two runs on five hits, and those two runs came in the bottom of the ninth inning. Outside of giving up those two runs, Jamie Moyer pitched eight good innings, despite walking four and while allowing only four of the Nationals' hits and striking out five batters. Tom Gordon came in to relieve Moyer and pitched a pretty painless ninth inning for his third save of the season.
If this game were used as an indication for how the Phillies' season has gone so far, one would think they were doing decently well. Unfortunately, that is just one of the Phillies' 14 games, and it tells a completely different story than the others.
With the victory over Washington, the Phillies managed to up their win total to four on the season, giving them a 4-10 record. That's a record good enough for last place in the NL East, behind the Nationals, who have a .313 winning percentage – which isn't great, but is still better than Philadelphia's .286 mark. The Phillies are six games back in the NL East, having the same win total as New York has losses. They sit 5.5 games back in the NL Wild Card, bad enough to be dead last in the running.
So, it's been a fairly poor 14 games at that. But, is it safe to say it's time for Philadelphia to panic just based on 14 games?
I can say there should be reason for concern. But is it already time for panic mode. I'm not sure I would make that much of a stretch.
After all, it's not as if the Phillies are strangers to starting seasons out poorly with bad winning percentages. This isn't exactly new territory for them, and they still manage to remain competitive fairly late into the season. But, the Phillies are also not strangers to just narrowly missing Wild Card berths and thus missing the playoffs, something winning those games early on in the year can help with.
This wasn't the way this season was supposed to go for the Phillies, after all. Jimmy Rollins made a bold statement when he said the Phillies were the team to beat in the NL East, despite the New York Mets being the defending division champions. But even if people disagreed with Rollins, which many did – including Brett Myers, there was little denying that the Phillies had one of the most potent rosters in the division. I believed the Phillies were good enough to finally reach the postseason via the NL Wild Card route in postseason predictions, and I still do. How can you not like what they have to offer – in starting pitching and batting at least?
During the offseason, the Phillies finally seemed to get the one part of their team that had consistently been a disaster in recent years right. They not only had five good options to throw on the mound to starts games, but the Phillies even had someone with starting ability in the bullpen.
Myers was supposed to be the team's ace, which is a spot he rightfully deserved. Freddy Garcia had been acquired from the Chicago White Sox during the offseason in a trade, and all that needed to be given in return was Gavin Floyd. Garica was supposed to fill in well with the Phillies as a No. 2 or No. 3 option. Adam Eaton was signed to a three-year, $24-million deal, which was a bit much in the minds' of many, but Eaton definitely had enough talent to be a good No. 3 or No. 4 starter. Then there was Cole Hamels, returning for his sophomore season after going 9-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 23 games of work last season. Hamels, the young gun and likely future ace of the Phillies' starting rotation, was at least supposed to fill a mid-rotation spot. Contrary to the young Hamels was the veteran Moyer, who undoubtedly had a backend rotation spot reserved for him all the way back in October when he was re-signed by the Phillies to a new two-year contract. Though Moyer is 44 years old, he still gives his team a chance to win every single game he pitches in.
Myers, Garcia, Eaton, Hamels and Moyer formed a rotation that had a little bit of everything and, above all else, provided an opportunity every night for the Phillies to walk out with a win. And if one of them stumbled at any point in the season, there was always Jon Lieber waiting for his turn to give it a shot, unless he was traded beforehand, that is.
At the plate, the Phillies were also pretty formidable. Leading the way was Ryan Howard, who was coming off a season in which he won the NL MVP Award, which was one year after he won the NL Rookie of the Year Award based on 88 games of play. While nobody really expected Howard to reproduce his second-year numbers of 58 home runs, 149 runs and even a .313 batting average, the first baseman was viewed as a mid-to-high-40s home run hitter with somewhere in the range of 125-130 in RBIs. To compliment him was Chase Utley, Howard's partner on the right side of the infield. Coming in with a fresh seven-year contract signed basically as he was getting married, Utley was supposed to build on a season when he hit over 30 homers, had 131 runs and went .309 at the plate. To many, Utley is the Phillies' most important player, despite not putting up the numbers Howard does. Though he's the man Phillies' fans love to hate, Pat Burrell can still put up numbers to help the Phillies win. Jimmy Rollins, Wes Helms, Aaron Rowand and Shane Victorino were also supposed to round out a good Phillies' lineup. It's not the most attractive package on paper that an MLB team has to offer, but it was supposed to be good enough to compete.
The bullpen was the one weak point of the Phillies, especially with Gordon returning as closer and nobody outside of maybe Geoff Geary being all that good. But very few teams have stellar looking bullpens, and that's not something that can't be fixed somewhere along the way during the season with a trade – with Lieber perhaps being a chip in any kind of deal. There was even a deal on the table involving Rowand to San Diego for Scott Linebrink, a bullpen arm involved in almost every single trade rumor involving a relief pitcher across the league.
But outside of the bullpen, the Phillies were supposed to be a very good team. They weren't the team to beat as Rollins would like you to believe. But the Phillies were set to make a realistic run at the playoffs, something they haven't been involved in since their World Series loss to the Toronto Blue Jays in 1993.
But between all the preseason optimism and mid-April, 14 games were played and a 4-10 record emerged. And though starting a season out in poor fashion is not new territory in Philadelphia, it doesn't help that their star hitter is currently day-to-day with a leg injury, their ace has been moved to the bullpen (which certainly doesn't help the fact that the Phillies pitching is one of the worst in the Majors so far this season) and their manager has lost his cool.
This is not the way things were supposed to go this year. Not by a long shot.
And it's not just the Phillies poor play that has to get fans worried. The Atlanta Braves are a rejuvenated team from last season that is ready to once again take claim to an NL East crown they held for 11 straight seasons before the Mets broke that streak last year. As of right now, the Braves are half a game behind the Mets for first place in the division. And besides those two teams, the Florida Marlins are going to be a competitive squad this year, just as they were last season, and currently sit 4.5 games out of the division lead with a 6-9 record. The Phillies can't afford to fall too far behind these teams at any point in the season, even if that point comes early on.
But I think the big problem here is Charlie Manuel. I don't want to be known as that columnist who calls for managers to be fired. But Manuel has been on the hot seat for some time now. And I definitely think he simply is horrible at his job. And it doesn't help that he's now basically losing his mind after answering Philadelphia radio personality Howard Eskin's challenge to show his temper and get angry, which Manuel did in his office to Eskin and had to be restrained by team personnel after leaving his office.
Simply put, it's time for Manuel to be given the pink slip. And it's definitely been a long time coming.
I sometimes wonder why this man received a job in the first place. And I think the Phillies would probably be better off with Larry Bowa, who I thought was undeservingly fired with two games left in the 2004 season. I'm sure many people think Bowa deserved the boot, which is fine. I'm cool with a difference of opinion. But nobody can convince me his replacement has done a much better job.
One of Manuel's incompetent acts this year has been the moving of Myers to the bullpen, and thus moving Lieber out of the bullpen and into the starting rotation. When I heard about that move on talk radio, I damn near swerved my car into a pole. How the hell does a manager take his ace and move him to the bullpen? It's not like Myers is even moving to the closer role, something the Boston Red Sox experimented with when they moved Curt Schilling there briefly in 2005. No. Myers is the setup guy to Gordon. It's not as if Myers has been amazing in his three starts this season, but he's only had three starts. You have to give the man a chance. Now, a very questionable starting rotation that just got Garcia back from the DL and whose only respectable starter to date has been Hamels just got downgraded even further. If that doesn't scream stupidity, I don't know what will. Myers is not a reliever – he needs to be in the Phillies' starting rotation.
In time, things will turn around for a lot of the players that have been under-performing so far for the Phillies.
Before going day-to-day, Howard was .213 at the plate with only one home run and seven RBIs. But eventually, Howard is going to start hitting. He was in a rut and the injury doesn't help. But Howard was going to break out eventually, and probably much sooner than later. Utley is going to perform better than he currently is. I doubt he's going to remain .224 all season. I doubt Rollins will be this team's offensive leader for most of the season. Eventually, Garcia is going to work back into form and become a reliable starter with a decent ERA and solid win total. Myers was going to get back into form as well in the starting rotation. All these players needed was some time. More than 14 games at least. Fourteen games has never been enough for the Phillies to get themselves on track.
And while I say don't panic, merely be concerned, Manuel is making unnecessary moves and acting out irrationally because he is alarmed about the status of his team. He knows his job is likely on the line and knows status quo won't get the job done in Philadelphia, a city hungry for a championship.
But 14 games is not the time to go overboard. It's time to be weary. It's time to keep a close eye on things. It's time to make sure the team doesn't get too far out of the running for the NL East and NL Wild Card crowns with Atlanta and New York playing as well as they are.
But 14 games is not the time to get desperate, even if you are a manager whose job is dangerously on the line.
Philadelphia is still very much in this thing. That is, unless Manuel takes them out of it first.
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