Curveballs and Sliders: Top 10 Surprises
Posted by Jared Marcus on 05.11.2007
This week in Curveballs and Sliders we run down the Top 10 Early Season Surprises. Plus we review the feedback from the "Top 50 Icons" column and unveil the top 10 Shortstops and First Basemen in the game today.
LEADING OFF
Hello all and welcome to another edition of Curveballs and Sliders. The MLB season is over a month in now and while still early, this is about the time you can start getting a real sense of the players and the teams. Which players that were off to hot starts are flukes and which ones are for real and the same with the teams as well.
Before we get going I have a couple of personal congratulations to send out this week as it has been a busy time in the life of some of my loyal readers. As always, I know most of you could care less about this but please bear with me. For starters I have to congratulate my good friend Pat on his engagement, good move Pat .boy I tell ya'. No but seriously, congrats and congrats to Pat again for completing graduate school, a big week for you, a fiancee and an MBA. Also Congratulations to my good friend Matt who finished law school this week, his prize is a wonderful four days of rest before giving the summer away to Bar Exam study.
Ok, that is it for my own personal agenda, soooo sorry to interrupt, lolol. There is a lot to get to this week, so let's jump right in
THE TWO HOLE
As I said above, it is still very early in the season because as we all know, baseball is a marathon not a sprint, but we are deep enough in at this point where numbers and records start to mean something. That means we are also at the point in the season where we can start giving legitimate interest to the surprising developments that come with the start of each new sports season. With that in mind, it is time this week to take a look at the Top 10 Early Surprises of the 2007 season.
10) Al Reyes Reyes didn't exactly come out of nowhere this season as he did show flashes of this in 2005 with the Cardinals, but he missed all of the 2006 season after elbow surgery. Throughout his career he has averaged high strikeout numbers, but he has also been around for a long time without having ever made a significant impact. This season he has emerged from a pack of Devil Ray closer candidates that can only be described as poor, to be one of the best relievers in the game. It still remains to be seen whether he can keep this up, but even if his numbers regress by 50% he would still be on pace to put up Tampa Bay's best ever relief season.
9) Toronto Blue Jays Hopes were high in Toronto this season after finishing 12 games over .500 and in 2nd place in 2006. In addition the Jays added Frank Thomas to their lineup during the off-season. While I didn't think the Jays were going to be as good as most (i.e. Playoff Contender) I am still surprised by their standing as of today. To see the Jays in last place, seven games under .500 and already 10 games out of first is stunning. They still have time to turn things around but they better not wait too long when the teams in front of them are the Red Sox and Yankees.
8) Jason Marquis Look we all knew Marquis wasn't nearly as bad of a pitcher as she showed last season, but never in his life has he been this good either. Last season he made 33 starts and won 14 games, but he also posted an ERA of 6.02 and a WHIP of 1.52. There was a lot of snickering when the Cubs signed him to be their 5th starter, but so far the move is more than paying off. Through seven starts Marquis is 5-1 with an ERA of 1.70, a full two runs better than any ERA he has ever posted in a single season. Obviously it will rise a bit as the season goes on, but even if it goes up the two full runs, he will still be a steal for the Cubs and a surprise to everyone.
7) New York Yankees It's hard to classify the Yankees as a surprise in any situation since so many people alternately proclaim the team to beat and the team to take a fall every season. However, they are always a surprise to me because I just never know what to expect from them, at least not in the last few seasons. It seems like whenever everyone expects them to win, they lose and just when everyone writes them off, back they come. We are only 32 games into this season and have already seen both of these things happen. They stumbled out of the gate and everyone thought it was finally the end of their division title run only to see them bounce back now and win 7 of 9. So the surprise here is more in the sense that they are "only" .500 and are already 6 games out than that they are a disaster. I am sure when all is said and done they will be right there in the mix with Boston, I am just not sure what will be the bigger surprise at this point, a division title or missing the playoffs completely.
6) Barry Bonds Bonds is not necessarily on this list because of the way he has performed, although he has performed better than most thought possible, rather more for the way people have reacted to him. Of course the reaction to his pursuit of Hank Aaron's home run record has still been overwhelmingly negative, but I am shocked that there is any positive support for him at all outside of San Francisco. And make no mistake, there is. The idea that you have to support this man because he never tested positive is ludicrous. There is overwhelming evidence against him that far surpasses conjecture or hearsay at this point. Equally ludicrous is the idea that fans are against Barry because he is black. There are two reasons that Barry faces more criticism than any other steroid cheat and they are that he is not a likeable person and more importantly, the fact that he is going to topple the games greatest record. The fact that Hank Aaron, a friend of his late father, an ambassador to the game of baseball and oh yeah, an African-American, won't support him should be evidence to all that this is not a race issue, it is a steroid issue.
5) Philadelphia Phillies As much confidence as I have in my New York Mets, I have to admit, I was very worried about the Phillies this season. They didn't quite have the lineup to compete with the Mets, but their pitching looked to be the best in the division on paper. Of course, as we know, paper doesn't always translate to success on the field. In this case it clearly did not. The Phillies starting pitchers have been terrible with the exceptions of Cole Hamels and the ageless Jamie Moyer, while the bullpen has once again been even worse. Add to that the fact that Ryan Howard is not hitting and Pat Burrell doesn't even seem to be alive, and all you have is two starters, one reliever, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand. Things are starting to look up over the past week or so, but this team will still be hard pressed to compete with the Mets and Braves over 162 games, at least not until Charlie Manuel gets fired.
4) Ian Kinsler WOW!! Who saw this coming? Well my friend Matt did who swore that Kinsler was going to be one of the top 2nd basemen in baseball this season, but I just didn't buy it. I mean, I had him on my fantasy team last season and when he was healthy he was a very good hitter. I definitely expected improvement out of him this year and a very solid season, perhaps even hitting over .300, but did anyone forsee this power surge? Last year in 423 at bats he hit 14 HR, this year in 105 at bats, he already has 9. Even if he doesn't keep up this pace he should shatter last seasons home run total and be one of the more productive two baggers in the league.
3) Alex Rodriguez What can I possibly say about A-Rod? I am not a big fan of the guy and that probably biased my opinion a little bit as far as what his production would be this year, but I don't think anyone could have envisioned this. I really thought he was at the end of his rope with the Yankees and their fans and would put up some of the worst numbers of his career this year .BOY IS MY FACE RED!!! I believe I even made the statement, I wouldn't take him in the second round of my fantasy draft. Although he has slowed down a bit in the last two weeks (Not an insult at all, it was impossible to keep up that pace) he is still on pace for one of the greatest seasons in history. He has already put together the greatest April in history and even did some damage to his "terrible in the clutch" reputation with a couple early game winning home runs. Like always, A-Rod will still be judged in September and October more than anything else, but he is off to a hell of a start.
2) Milwaukee Brewers/J.J. Hardy The Brewers have been a sleeper pick for a few seasons now but I think after they underachieved so much last year a lot of people jumped off the bandwagon. Sure there were some that still picked them to win the NL Central just because its such a weak division, but no one could have possibly expected them to break out to the best record in baseball a month into the season. One of the biggest reasons for this great start has been the surprising play of J.J. Hardy who turned from tin can into All-Star in one off-season. Hardy was a top prospect when he came up in 2005 but after two seasons of struggling to hit .250 it seemed that ship had sailed. This season however Hardy is hitting .331 and has already matched his career high in home runs.
1) Lack of Hitting To me the biggest surprise of this season has been the complete and utter lack of hitting by many superstars and teams. Early in April hitting was down by record numbers and that was blamed on the cold temperatures and bad conditions, but now things have settled down and many players still aren't hitting. Average is down, home runs are down and runs scored are down. Albert Pujols is hitting .261 with 6 HR, Ryan Howard .204 with 6 HR, David Wright .254 with 2 HR and Ichiro .274, more than 50 points below his career average. And there are tons of others. Meanwhile pitching is numbers are not up that drastically, one has to wonder what is going on. More importantly, are all of these guys going to rebound or is there going to be a record number of all-stars who have sub-par seasons? We will have to wait and see.
That will do it for the 10 biggest early season surprises, did I miss any? Anything that I mentioned that you think has no place on the list? Write in and let me know, now let's move on.
BATTING THIRD ..
I didn't post anything last week so the last thing I wrote was the "Top 50 Baseball Icons" column. I just wanted to thank all of you that sent in feedback on that column. It took a ton of time and I put a lot of work into it, so it was nice to know that so many of you greatly enjoyed. In fact that column broke the all-time record for feedback received as my inbox was bombarded for several days. Usually when you post a column you get responses that day and that is it, but this one lingered and I appreciate it.
As expected, there were some criticisms or questions about my list and since I haven't done it in a while and since I received so many e-mails on the topic, I thought it would be the perfect time to print some reader responses. So with that in mind here is a "Top 50 Icons" edition of the mailbag.
Thomas S. from Osceola, FL writes ..
Loved the list, but the San Diego chicken? Come on man. How can you take a mascot and not include guys like Ernie Banks or Sammy Sosa?
Hey Thomas, thanks for reading and for writing in.
I appreciate what you are saying and I thought about that very aspect not only when I included the Chicken, but also Roy Hobbs, a make believe character. At the end of the day though I wanted to make the list as diverse as possible and acknowledge as many different aspects of the games history as I could. If you really go down the top 50 icons of the game, they would probably all be players as the are the most famous and noteworthy people. However, I wanted to give credit to the best of the best of the best in all fields, so I felt it was more important to include the best mascot, the best character, the best manager, the best announcer and so and so forth, rather than including the 40th best player. I think when all was said and done, that is what made the list more interesting anyway. But again, I appreciate your thinking and thanks again for writing in, keep coming back.
Laura H. from Trenton, NJ writes .
I thoroughly enjoyed your list but I have one complaint, there are no women. I know baseball, like most sports, is generally a male dominated game, but there had to have been some influential women affiliated with the game.
Hi Laura, thanks for the kind words and for checking in.
Believe it or not I did try to find a place for a woman on the list as part of my diversity plan listed above, there just honestly wasn't room for one. An "Icon" is someone that rolls of the tongue and sadly, in the 100+ years of professional baseball, there are no female figures that fit that bill. I gave strong consideration to several woman including Effa Manley, Jane Forbes Clark, Jean Yawkey and Marge Schott, but in the end, I just couldn't bump any of my 50 off the list in favor of them. With that being said, the contribution that women have provided to the sport throughout its history is impressive and important and it will only continue to grow as time marches on. Maybe in the future I will dedicate a list to the most important women in baseball history, so look out for that Laura and keep coming back.
Bill James from Holton, KS writes .
Hey Jared, I appreciate you listing me on the Icons list, but how could you include me and not Henry Chadwick, the guy that started it all? Just wondering.
Ummmmm, thanks for the e-mail Bill.
Seriously though, I did mention Chadwick in the blurb about James. Chadwick was arguably the creator of baseball stats as we know them today as well as many of the important things about the way baseball is covered, including the box score, and iconic item in its own right. In addition he was credited with creating stats such as ERA and Batting Average, two of the most famous and influential statistics in sports history. The problem with classifying Chadwick as an icon however, is the fact that very few people knew he ever existed. It's a shame given all he accomplished and brought to the sport, you would think someone that developed the box score, ERA and AVG. would be a household name, but unfortunately he is not. Poll 100 baseball fans asking them to name a baseball statistician and 95 of them will say James. That's why he was on the list and Chadwick wasn't. Of course Ol Henry will always have Cooperstown. Thanks again for writing in ..Bill, keep coming back.
Leroy J. from Ames, IA writes ..
Loved the list, just loved it, what a great idea and great fun. I think you did a great job of acknowledging all aspects of baseball history. However I just have to ask, how can Jackie Robinson not be #1, Ruth was great and all, but Robinson was the most important baseball player ever. What gives?
Hey Leroy, thanks very much for the kind words, glad you enjoyed the list.
On the subject of Jackie Robinson I do not disagree with you, in fact if I am not mistaken, I even called him the most important athlete in American history in that column. The problem was that the list was not of the most important people but of the greatest icons and there has never been a bigger one than Babe Ruth. Ruth is a mythical figure that stands toe to toe on the icon list with names such as George Washington, Elvis Presley and Mickey Mouse. Few names in the history of the world as are recognizable as the name Babe Ruth. While Jackie would be lower on any list of the greatest players and higher on any list of the most important players, I think he is just right on the list of icons and I think it pays a high complement to him to be listed only behind "The Babe". Thanks a lot for writing in and for reading Leroy, keep coming back.
That will do it for the "Icons" mailbag, once again I appreciate all the mail I received and as always I try to respond to all of it, even if it doesn't make it into the column. I do love getting e-mails from readers and I love responding to them so keep em coming. Now let's move on.
CLEANING UP .
This week in "The Greatest" we continue to countdown the best players in the game today. So far we have covered Catcher and Right Field, this week the lists for Shortstop and First Base. So without further ado .
"The 10 Greatest" Shortstops in the game today
10) Omar Vizquel San Francisco Giants
09) Rafael Furcal Los Angeles Dodgers
08) Edgar Renteria Atlanta Braves
07) Carlos Guillen Detroit Tigers
06) Hanley Ramirez Florida Marlins
05) Michael Young Texas Rangers
04) Jimmy Rollins Philadelphia Phillies
03) Jose Reyes New York Mets
02) Derek Jeter New York Yankees
01) Miguel Tejada Baltimore Orioles
"The 10 Greatest" .First Basemen in the game today
10) Prince Fielder Milwaukee Brewers
09) Adrian Gonzalez San Diego Padres
08) Todd Helton Colorado Rockies
07) Paul Konerko Chicago White Sox
06) Justin Morneau Minnesota Twins
05) Derrek Lee Chicago Cubs
04) Lance Berkman Houston Astros
03) Mark Teixeira Texas Rangers
02) Ryan Howard Philadelphia Phillies
01) Albert Pujols St. Louis Cardinals
That will do it for this week, we will return next week with all the latest and most interesting from the world of baseball. I have quite a few big lists along the lines of the "Top 50 Icons" on tap in the upcoming weeks so keep coming back. In the meantime check out my new blog with my friend Max that covers all sports as well as references to music, tv, movies and more. You can visit that site at bigjandmax.blogspot.com. Until next week
