MLB Fastball 07.13.07: 100th Edition
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 07.13.2007
Major League Baseball is on the verge of having its first $30-million player, and is even closer to getting a strictly singles hitter to land $20-million a season. In this week’s 100th edition of MLB Fastball, I examine these possibilities and explain why teams need to be a bit more responsible with the precedents they are setting with these large contracts.
Good morning, evening and afternoon everybody!
If you happened to check out last week's edition of MLB Fastball during the first 30 minutes or so of it being on the Web site, you probably saw it declared as the 100th edition. And that was true until I noticed that I had one of the MLB Fastball columns saved twice. So, last week's edition was actually the 99th edition of the column.
So, in light of that, this week is the Real Edition No. 100! Thanks for stopping by and reading the column every week, as without the readers there's little point in me actually writing this up.
With that, lets jump right into the action, as we're officially into the second half of the 2007 Major League Baseball season!
MLB Salaries To Reach New Level Of Outrageousness
League To See First $30-million player?
Ichiro, this year's All-Star Game MVP, is on the verge of signing a five-year, $100-million extension.
Just when you thought the money thrown around in professional sports couldn't get any more ludicrous, Ichiro Suzuki and Álex Rodríguez have to go ahead and prove there's never enough money in the bank accounts of players. In probably a matter of days, the Seattle Mariners will lock up Ichiro to a five-year, $100-million contract extension that will keep him in Seattle until 2012 and will guarantee he doesn't enter the free agent market. And though Rodríguez might hold out on agreeing to a new deal until the end of this year, the New York Yankees third baseman could be on the verge of becoming the very first player in Major League Baseball history to sign for $30-million or more per season – putting him in a class financially that only Michael Jordan and David Beckham can claim to be/have been a part of in American team sports.
I have to admit, as a big advocate of players, I sincerely admire the fact that athletes can have teams seemingly at their beck and call, paying them virtually whatever they want. Players and their agents are always supposed to go after top dollar in sports (and nobody knows that better than Scott Boras, who represents A-Rod) – it's just the nature of capitalism. But what really gets me is the fact that owners and general managers constantly prove their economic irresponsibility by signing players to such exorbitant contracts that mostly equal a gross overpayment.
I believe we saw that in several cases this past offseason during free agency. While free agency is a different monster than contract extensions, and the nature of free agency is that players will undoubtedly be overpaid considering the competition involved among clubs in obtaining their services. But sometimes, despite competition, players simply get too much.
The first name that pops into my head is Gil Meche, who received $55-million over five years from the Kansas City Royals to essentially come in and be the team's ace. The Royals are a constant failure and are a basement team in the AL Central and American League standings overall. To think Meche was going to change any of that was pretty foolish. And to sign a pitcher whose ERA would likely fall somewhere between 4.50 and 5.00 to an $11-million per season deal just didn't seem very logical.
Moves like that set a bad precedent and screw up the rest of the market. Just look at Ted Lilly's $40-million, four-year contract with the Chicago Cubs. Sure, both of those players have worked out reasonably well so far for their new teams. But those contracts were outrageous at the time they were signed for essentially mid-rotation pitchers, and there is still plenty of time for those contracts to be proven failures.
But contracts like those pale in comparison the ones players like Barry Zito ($126-million over seven years), Carlos Lee ($100-million over six years), Alfonso Soriano ($136-million over eight years) and Vernon Wells ($126-million over seven years) received. Two of those players – Lee and Wells (despite his .253 batting average) – are having fairly good seasons. Zito and Soriano are not. But regardless, none of them deserve the at least 16 to 18 million dollars they are receiving per year. Congratulations to them for going after the big dough and getting it. But none of them are putting up monster seasons, and some of them are hardly even showing up.
What these deals of the last offseason did, however, was really make a change in the league. There were naturally those big contracts prior to the previous offseason because there will always be those one or two players who just light it up so much that they are far beyond the rest of the class in the league. Rodríguez' $252-million, 10-year deal was never going to be duplicated.
But now, large contracts are becoming more commonplace. And by large, I mean near $20-million a season. Hell, last season, Roger Clemens only made $12-million on a pro-rated deal with the Houston Astros for pitching for four months. This year, he'll see $18.5-million on a pro-rated deal with the Yankees for the same amount of time.
This has to be a dangerous path for teams to head down. The precedents you set at damn near $20-million a season, the more inflated other players' contracts will become.
There are really two separate issues I have with the contracts Ichiro and Rodríguez are going to receive.
In Ichiro's case, I find it very hard to believe that a singles hitter is worth $20-million a season. Ichiro is far from a power bat and he really only hits for contact. In fact, the center fielder has had nine or less home runs in four of his six complete seasons in the league, and he's never hit more than 15. He has also never had a 70-RBI season.
Now, he's also never had a sub-.300 season in the batting average department, has stolen at least 31 bases in all of his MLB seasons and never had a season with less than 101 runs scored. He is naturally the best contact hitter in the game today, and has some wheels under him. But his numbers just don't add up to $20-million a season to me.
Sure, Ichiro has international fame. And that's certainly a great marketing ploy to try and bring in more dough. He is, after all, the guy that started the Japanese movement in Major League Baseball markets. But teams are supposed to pay based on the production they see on the field, not how many jerseys a guy will sell. Or, at least, the jerseys shouldn't be a predominant factor.
If you ask me, Ichiro's value stops at $12-million. On the free agent market, maybe he hits $14-million. But $20-million will basically put him in a class with Manny Ramirez, who is one of the best overall batters in the game today. There's no way those two should make the same amount of money.
Ichiro is definitely a good guy and a tremendous ballplayer. He just walked away with the 2007 All-Star Game MVP. But just to avoid him hitting free agency, the Mariners once again tossed a big contract at a player that will not produce up to the money included. He won't be a failure like Adrián Béltre and Richie Sexson have been. But he's not going to produce the kind of numbers a contract of that size demands.
For Rodríguez, there is not only the issue of setting a very bad precedent, but also the question of where it ends with how much money one individual can make in one season.
As I previously stated, Rodríguez is a rare breed and his contracts will likely never be reproduced. He will always be the highest paid player in baseball, which is fitting because he might just be the best player in the game today (though I still contend that title belongs to Albert Pujols.) The prospect of him making even more than he is now, though, is just plain scary. And at $30-32-million, you need to ask when enough is enough already.
What message does that send to other players around the league that can still compare their value against A-Rod? A player like Miguel Cabrera is set to hit free agency relatively soon. And while it would be ludicrous for him to ask for $30-32-million per season, why can't he make $25-million a year? He might not be as good as A-Rod, but he's not that far off.
In the April 5, 2007 edition of MLB Fastball, I talked about how it was possible, based on a story in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, that Cabrera could join Rodríguez in the $200-million club, pending he would sign something in the 10-year, $200-million range. That seemed pretty shocking at the time, but I'm sure that's in the low end of what Cabrera would demand when he hits free agency, which could happen following the conclusion of the 2009 season. If A-Rod does sign for $30-million or more per year, and Ichiro makes $20-million per season, you would have to think Cabrera falls somewhere in the middle of those two. He is mainly a third baseman with the Florida Marlins, but has played a significant amount of games in the outfield as well during his career, which makes both of those players' deals pretty relevant to Cabrera's situation.
Cabrera puts up very good power numbers, but is also a great contact hitter who can score runs. Is Cabrera worth $25-26-million per season, though, based on the precedent A-Rod and Ichiro would set? I think not.
In A-Rod's case, he doesn't want to deal with a contract extension during the season. The Yankees have reportedly been interested in offering a deal to Rodríguez soon, which would go against their policy of not negotiating new deals with players until the conclusion of their current ones. Something like that would have annoyed Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada considering their situations fell under those Yankee rules and they've been lifers with New York. Rodríguez just wants to concentrate on winning, though. So efforts from New York to contact Scott Boras would be worthless.
It's pretty obvious A-Rod is going to opt-out, but I don't think it's because he wants to see where the season takes him this year. Rodríguez is no different than any other athlete and he wants to see what his value is. While the Yankees would be willing to offer $30-million a year to him, what happens if some team comes out of the clear blue and offers $35-million a season? Free agency can do something crazy like. And with several teams interested in Rodríguez' services, it's not farfetched to think there would be a bidding frenzy for him. Just how much is a team willing to pay for A-Rod in order to outbid everybody else?
That's why Rodríguez doesn't want to talk new deals now. He knows he'll make at least $30-million a year however he handles this. But maybe he can pull out even more by waiting and letting the auction for him become more than a one-horse race.
Inevitably, owners and GM's will need to smarten up and stop giving in to these huge contracts that players so easily seem to get in the MLB. Boras is the big instigator to that, as nobody is guiltier of getting players contracts entirely outside their value more than Boras. But with contracts already inflating to unthinkable proportions, the people in charge of the finances need to show a little bit of intelligence now. And yes, I'm even calling out the Yankees here. There is no room in baseball for a $30-million player, even if George Steinbrenner can afford it. A-Rod is not Michael Jordan; he has no championships.
Instead, the league needs to step back a bit. It doesn't need to go nuts and switch to a salary cap system, which the NHL has proven doesn't do a damn thing to cutting down player salaries.
The MLB only needs to get back slightly in its salaries, at least to the point where $20-million a season is still a jaw-dropping figure for a player to make in a season – not just a starting offer.
Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com.
