The Underground Insight 07.16.07: Damaged Goods, Broken Dreams
Posted by JD Koziarski on 07.16.2007
Two of the most promising young arms of the early twenty-first century have become, at best, forgotten on the national baseball landscape. At worst, they are giant albatrosses for their teams and each club should consider moving them to anybody willing to take a chance on a player who will likely never reach their immeasurable potential.
The Show
The teaser has your mind racing, right? All the oft-injured pitchers are running (or limping, perhaps rolling by in a wheelchair) through your head as you try to guess who is on my mind. I will tell you in time, but first, some numbers.
Player A is 26-years-old and has a career 42-29 record with a 3.51 ERA. He has exactly 100 more strikeouts (757) than innings pitched in his career. His career 1.225 WHIP is outstanding. Sabermetrically speaking, this guy has a 3.72 career DERA and no matter who you ask he was a sure thing to be a dominant pitcher for the next decade if only he could stay healthy.
Player B is almost a mirror image. A year younger, he has a career 31-18 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.261 WHIP. This Canadian (there's a hint!) has a DERA almost identical to Player A's at 3.74. No matter who you ask he was a sure thing to be a dominant pitcher for the next decade if only he could stay healthy.
In 2007, Player A and B have combined for 1 win.
Got it yet?
When it's all said and done, Player A might be most well-known for his complete meltdown on the mound after Steve Bartman made himself notorious. Player B, if history remembers him at all, will be the guy who was supposed to lead the second wave after the departures of Oakland's Big Three.
Of course, I'm talking about Mark Prior and Rich Harden, two hard-throwing youngsters with amazing breaking stuff who have had their careers derailed by injury after injury. Elbows, shoulders, backs, and other random, exploding body parts have all been giant railroad spike-sized thorns that have frustrated the players, their organizations, and fans for a handful of years. What's worse is that there doesn't seem to be much precedent for either guy recovering to become the dominant pitcher he ought to be.
I'll admit that the following statement is anecdotal, and quite possibly wrong – and if it is, I would appreciate an e-mail telling me that – but how many phenomenal fireballers had the early part of their professional careers sidetracked by multiple injuries only to come back and dominate as expected? Josh Beckett had some blister problems early on, but I wouldn't call that a true injury. Even in Beckett's case he's made 21 or more starts every season of his career but his first. Cubs and A's fans would sacrifice a limb – or at least a minor appendage like a baby toe – for 21 Prior or Harden starts in a season.
Prior has done that three times, from 2003-2005. He went 35-17. Harden has only done it once, his first full season in the big leagues. He was 11-7.
Even though the two pitchers are so similarly amazing and frustrating, their respective teams should not do the same thing with each player.
The Cubs should do what they can to keep Prior in their organization. This may come as unwanted advice for Cubs fans who have had to deal with perpetual disappointment over Prior, but here's the thing about the Cubs: They can afford it. A few million for Prior to sit on the DL is worth it just in case he can regain that form and be the healthy, world-beating pitcher he can be. What the Cubs should not do is expect this from Prior, but keep him in the fold just in case. In the meantime, continue to develop pitchers. The signings of Lilly and Marquis last off season, while nothing spectacular, fill voids in the rotation.
It comes down to risk and reward. For the Cubs, it really does not hurt them to pay Prior to be injured. On the other hand, the A's can no longer afford to keep up the Rich Harden hope.
Just about everybody on the A's has been injured this year (except, it seems, for Bobby Crosby, the one player who would actually help the team by sitting out for a few months), but Harden was expected to anchor a rotation that has been one of the best in baseball. Once again, he's been on and off the disabled list. He hasn't been off it very often, either.
But the A's can't afford to toss a few million towards Harden with the hope that he can stay healthy. Other teams can, and will. As long as Harden produces when he can take the mound, and he does, he has significant trade value. And with the A's currently four games under .500 and likely going nowhere this season, the number one goal for Beane should be to get Harden healthy before the July 31 trade deadline. Let him get a start, or even a couple relief appearances, and then move him. If the A's were able to get Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton for Mark Mulder, they can get a ton of Harden.
At the end of the day, Harden might develop and stay healthy and dominate the league. He might. But history doesn't show that to be a likely scenario. It's more likely he may follow a similar career path to another former Athletic, Jason Isringhausen, and be best utilized as a dominant closer. Regardless, it seems very unlikely that either Prior or Harden will ever be the 300-game winners they have – or had – the potential to be. At this rate, neither guy might win 100 games in his career.
Spraying to All Fields
Ichiro gets a bajillion dollars to hit singles
Look, Ichiro is an All-Star. He's a terrific defensive player, has a great arm, can steal some bases and hits for a great average. He's very, very good. He's also going to be 38 at the end of the recently-signed five year contract. Is $17 million per year really what a guy who hasn't cracked 30 doubles since 2001 worth? He averages 10 HR and 8 3B a year. And that's now! What happens when he turns into Johnny Damon in a year or two or even three? This deal might not be as awful as the Soriano deal, but it's close.
The All-Star Game Still Means Nothing
I'm really, really glad Tony LaRussa didn't use Albert Pujols on Tuesday night because he proved that no matter what stupid stipulations Bud adds to the game, it is still an exhibition. It's a game that's meant to be fun, and I don't care how many dinosaurs reminisce about the days of Pete Rose injuring players in a meaningless game. It's an exhibition. It doesn't count. It should never count. And people who think it makes sense to play the best players on the best teams for a full nine innings for no good reason are idiots.
Say What?
"It has become more of an exhibition now than it was before." – Joe Morgan on the All-Star Game
Joe, I think we need to give you a dictionary to explain what words mean. I realize I called it an exhibition about thirty seconds ago, and the spirit of the game is just that. But technically, the outcome of the game does matter. That effectively makes it, well, not an exhibition. Back in the day, when baseball was perfect according to Joe, the game really did mean nothing. So that means that the game was more of an exhibition before than it is now. That's the exact opposite of what Morgan said on Sunday Night Baseball. Good job being stupid, Joe. You never cease to amaze.
You Oughta Know
Chris Carter, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Born: 09/16/1982
Birthplace: Fremont, California
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 210
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
College: Stanford
I'm a mark for the sweet swingin' left-handed first basemen. Carter can rake. He's destroying pitching in the Pacific Coast League this year. How does .345/.403/.531 sound, D-Backs fans? This organization continues to produce quality position players, and Carter is no exception. A 17th round pick in 2004, Carter is ready now. Now, now, now. The problem is that Arizona has Connor Jackson, and he's not so bad himself.
I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the Diamondbacks organization so I have no idea which player they like more, but if they don't move Jackson soon I would expect them to send Carter to a team that needs a young first baseman who is ready to produce now.
Enter the Sandman
So the unofficial second half of the baseball season has begun and my team currently suuuuuucks. And I blame Bob Geren for putting the names "Mark Kotsay" and "Bobby Crosby" in the lineup every day. He also should never allow Kiko Calero to touch a baseball. Ever. And Alan Embree needs to not pretend to be a closer. And Nick Swisher needs to bat second. See, there's a lot of problems with the A's. The injuries killed them, certain players aren't living up to their hype, Bob Geren is a less obnoxious version of Ken Macha, etc. But they shouldn't be four games under. They should be neck-and-neck with the Angels. I can never understand how Beane can be so amazing at talent evaluation but so completely horrible at hiring a manager. Can somebody explain to me why Bobby Crosby, a guy who is above average at nothing baseball-related, can keep his job? Is Marco Scutaro better? Probably not. J.J. Furmaniak or Donnie Murphy? Who knows? But don't these guys at least deserve a shot when the current guy is bad at everything?
I frequently drop the names of my favorite ballplayers in this column, well, from now on I need to mention how much I can't stand Bobby Crosby. I will not be a happy A's fan until he's playing in another uniform. Mark Kotsay can get the hell out of town, too. The guy used to at least be a good defensive player, but his body has been so broken down he's not even that anymore. Strong up the middle is a cliché, but when Mark Ellis is your best up-the-middle player your team has some problems.
