The Underground Insight 8.6.07: Breaking Down Billy Beane’s Boys
Posted by JD Koziarski on 08.06.2007
Holy alliteration, Batman! As promised, this week the Insight analyzes the Athletics, opines on Oakland, and takes a gander at the state of the Green and Gold.
The Show
In my first column, I explained to everybody why I was a fan of the Oakland Athletics. I wasn't born in the Bay Area, didn't follow the Bash Brothers, and don't call the Giants the "Gnats." But in the past few years, I have grown very attached to the organization and have filled my brain with about as much knowledge about the entire A's system as I could. And since I pretty much follow my own rules ‘round these parts, this column will be entirely devoted to the Oakland A's.
So if everybody would kindly take a sip of the green Kool-Aid, we can get started.
The 2007 Athletics have greatly disappointed. To be fair, they have used the disabled list around 8,712 times for a total of 2,456,012.7 missed games. They've used 91 pitchers and 46 different center fielders. It's been pretty brutal. And because injuries to Harden, Street, Chavez, Bradley, Piazza, Duchscherer, Loaiza, Snelling, Crosby, Kielty, and a few others have derailed the team's chances, I'm not nearly as upset about the team's future as some people. In fact, I can see no reason other than another year of injuries why the A's won't be back in their rightful place on top of the AL West in 2008.
But there is some work to be done, and I'm here to tell you all what that is.
Guys Who Gotsta go
A month ago, this list was twice as long. But in that time, Jason Kendall, Bobby Kielty, and Joe Kennedy have all gone elsewhere. A few people still need to pack their bags.
Kiko Calero
In 2005, Calero put up a 3.23 ERA in 55 2/3 IP. In 2006, he put up a 3.41 ERA in 58 IP. But he will be 33 next year, has had injuries, and is now really, really bad. Middle relievers are an odd breed. Very few guys can be consistently good. And, more importantly, Calero is just a guy. He was a very good guy for two years, but finding someone to replace him not only shouldn't be difficult, but it may have already been done. When the A's traded Milton Bradley to the Padres, they acquired reliever Andrew Brown. Brown is six years younger than Calero and his 9.48 K/9 in the minors is impressive (that has translated well to 8.47 in limited major league experience through Saturday). Calero and Brown are both working in the A's bullpen right now, but next season there should only be room for one of them and Brown will be the guy.
Mark Kotsay
As recently as two years ago, Kotsay may have been one of the top 5 defensive center fielders in baseball. Now, he's a broken down shell of his former self. Kotsay can no longer hit, run, or field all that well. His arm is still solid, but how useful is that on a team that struggles for offense? The problem is that Kotsay is signed through 2008 at a hefty $8 million price tag. What team would trade for an $8 million grinder? I'm not sure, but there's a lot of really bad general managers out there. If Beane can move Kotsay in the offseason, he should take what he can get for the guy. The A's outfield is absolutely loaded with depth. Every at bat Kotsay gets is taking an at bat away from a younger, better player like Nick Swisher, Travis Buck, or Jack Cust.
Bobby Crosby
On the official A's message board, a poster recently cited Crosby's 2004 Rookie of the Year award as proof that he's a good player. Here's a secret: that rookie class was terrible, and so was Crosby. His .745 OPS his rookie year was ok, I suppose, but that's hardly anything to write home about. Also, that OPS has steadily declined since 2005, reaching a low of .619 this season. And, once again, if Beane can move Crosby (lots of teams would like a late-20s shortstop who is a fantastic athlete, even if he's not that good at baseball) he won't be burned at the position. In very limited duty, Donnie "Not out of his element" Murphy has proven he can handle himself. And, what's more, if Murphy, 24, doesn't quite pan out as I'm willing to guarantee he will the A's have two highly touted shortstops in the minors: Cliff Pennington, a first round pick in 2005, and the 90th overall pick in 2007, Josh Horton. Pennington hasn't shown much skill at the plate thus far, but the left-handed hitting Horton hit .375 in two seasons at the University of North Carolina. He's a couple years away at best, but none of that matters anyway because Donnie Murphy can play (and despite his .195 average in limited playing time this year, Murphy still has a higher OPS than Crosby).
Bob Geren
In case you're thinking I'm one of those guys who just rips the manager when the players are bad, let me give you an example from Sunday. In the bottom of the 6th inning, Dan Johnson hit a 2-run home run to put the A's up 3-2. Starter Dan Haren had thrown over 100 pitches, so Geren decided to go to the bullpen. That's all fine and good. Who does he bring in?
Kiko Calero.
Kiko Calero who now has a 5.97 ERA. Kiko Calero who leads the team in blown saves (3) without being a closer at any point this season and who also spent time on the disabled list. That Kiko Calero. Geren used him against a first-place team in a key situation.
Ater Calero allowed 2 runs in just 2/3 of an inning, Geren brought in Andrew Brown who rather easily pitched 2 1/3. He threw 25 pitches. Calero threw 25 ptiches and got just 2 batters out.
Bob Geren is Ken Macha, but worse.
Don't believe me yet? Geren said this as recently as Saturday, "I think he's the best second baseman in baseball." The "he" Geren refers to is Mark Ellis. Apparently he's never heard of Chase Utley.
Those are the four guys who need to go most, but there's others whose departures could make the A's better. Daric Barton, who I nominate for nickname of "The Savior," is ready for the Majors right now. His .307/.399/.456 actually isn't representative of just how good he will be. He hasn't even turned 22 yet, which means he hasn't developed his power stroke. He still has 33 doubles at Triple-A Sacramento. Barton's impending explosion onto the Major League Baseball scene means that Dan Johnson is expendable. Johnson is solid. I like him a lot more than most A's fans (who, by the way, need to realize how special their organization is and stop living in the Dark Ages). Johnson is basically Scott Hatteberg, but younger and better.
In another recent column, I recommended the A's trade Rich Harden. While I won't be upset if they hang onto him, moving him this offseason could also bolster an already deep minor league system.
Mike Piazza's one-year stay in the Bay Area is far too long. If he has passed through waivers, the A's should move him as soon as possible. If not, take the two compensation draft picks for the guy. Like Kotsay, he takes away at bats from guys who have been more productive (Cust). I respect the guy for all he's done for the past fifteen years, but his time as passed. He's an average hitter now, and Jack Cust has been much better than average.
And one more name to hold onto for next season: Chris Snelling. If his knees don't explode for the nineteenth time, Snelling is going to make people notice him. I would not lead you astray, my people. That would be wrong.
For any A's fans reading this, I have some good news. I have reasons to continue watching the 2007 season. Believe it or not, there are a few. Kurt Suzuki, Murphy, Cust, Buck (the rookie of the year if he can stay in the lineup everyday), Haren, Lenny DiNardo, and Santiago Casilla are guys to watch for the future. Haren has established himself as a top American League starter. Buck is developing into a terrific leadoff man. Cust is the poor man's Adam Dunn, and that's just fine in my world. DiNardo has surprised everybody and should continue to do so. Santiago Casilla has finally figured out how to pitch. I've already explained why Murphy needs to get his chance, and Suzuki is the catcher of the future. Watch these guys develop. Watch how they get better on a game-by-game basis. And get excited for 2008. Unless the Angels sign Alex Rodriguez this winter, the A's should be contenders again.
Enter the Sandman
While writing this column, Tom Glavine is attempting to win his 300th game for a second time. All I keep hearing about lately is how Glavine could be the last 300 game winner. Those comments, which I believe are all kinds of silly, inspired next week's column. I'll take a look at some current 300 game winners and some young pitchers who I think can be considered the future of the exclusive 300 Club.
