The Underground Insight 08.13.07: The Future of 300
Posted by JD Koziarski on 08.13.2007
After Tom Glavine, many experts believe that the era of the 300-game winner will come to an end. That idea seems to be gaining support in the baseball community, but The Insight can’t figure out why.
The Show
"The way the game has changed, we're probably pretty close to [no more 300-game winners]." – Tom Seaver
I suppose I'm not nearly as qualified to speak to the likelihood of a future Mr. 300 than a guy who has accomplished the rare feat, but I wonder why guys like Seaver keep saying that the end of the 300-game winner is upon us. Has baseball changed that much since the debuts of Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine to make it impossible to have another member of the 300 Club? Some records in baseball – for example, Cy Young's 511 wins – are out of reach because the game has evolved to a point where reaching such milestones simply cannot happen. A starting pitcher would have to win each of his 32-33 starts for nearly 16 years to catch Young. Not gonna happen.
But why is 300 so out of reach? In a recent column for MSNBC.com, Bob Cook feels the same way I do. In that column, he details six pitchers who he feels are the most likely to vie for a 300th victory later in their careers. He lists Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, and unlikely wild card, Jon Garland.
Thanks, Mr. Cook, it wasn't like I planned to write the same exact column or anything. Of course, the top player on my list would have been Mark Buehrle. But the point is that I'm glad others are seeing things my way for once.
For those who think the game has changed too much – more relievers, fewer starts, etc. – here is something to consider. The most innings Glavine has ever thrown in one season is 246 2/3. He has reached his career high in starts, 36, three times. In 2004, Buehrle tossed 245 1/3 innings. He's made 35 starts twice. So while it's true the game has changed since the day of Bob Gibson, when he once threw 314 innings in a season (though never made more than 36 starts), the game has simply not changed much from the early days of the most recent 300-game winners. Barring more changes that limit starting pitchers, the next wave of candidates ought to have just as much opportunity to reach 300 as the last.
To say Glavine and Buehrle are fairly similar is an understatement. They're almost the same size, both made their major league debuts at 21 years of age, and, in a coincidence only relevant for making age-based comparisons, Buehrle was born on March 23 and Glavine on March 25.
Through Glavine's 1994 season, when he was 28, he had already amassed three 20-win seasons. However, his first four seasons were very mediocre. That resulted in an 8-year total of 108 wins. Buehrle, on the other hand, has never won 20 games. His high water mark is 19, but he has won 16 games three times. Yet, with the exception of a down year in 2006, Buehrle has always been good. As of August 10th, Buehrle has 106 career wins. That means that by the end of this year, the 28-year-old should have more wins than Glavine did at this stage of his career in approximately the same number of starts.
So Buehrle only has to maintain this pace for the next 13 years and he's a shoo-in! There's no telling how his health and performance will hold up into his 30s and early 40s, but it's reasonable to say that Buehrle is on pace.
Roger Clemens had 60 wins after the year of his 24th birthday, and Jeremy Bonderman is in his 24th year and has 55 to date. Dontrelle Willis, 25, is a little bit behind Clemens' pace, as he had just 58 wins before the start of this season. But a player doesn't exactly have to be on pace with Clemens to reach 300.
Before Greg Maddux was 27, he had 95 wins, all with the Cubs. C.C Sabathia is still 26 and has 95 wins.
Cook believes that Oswalt, Santana, and Zambrano are likely candidates. I actually do not think they're the most likely. Oswalt turns 30 in a couple weeks and has just 110 wins. He can make it, but other players are more likely. For what it's worth, Barry Zito is younger and also has 110 wins. Even though Zito has been bad this year, he gave himself such a head start that if he can string together a handful of solid seasons in San Francisco he'll be well on his way despite not being the dominant pitcher he was five years ago.
I think Santana is on the bubble simply because he's 28, has just 90 wins. Clemens reached 100 when he was 27. Glavine when he was 28. Maddux when he was 27. Glavine didn't reach 300 until well after his 41st birthday. It's a little unreasonable for us to expect Santana to keep up the pace that long. So he's certainly a possibility, but I would rank him in the bottom half of the top 10.
Carlos Zambrano's best bet to reach 300 is to leave the Cubs. That and the 26 year old needs to win some more games. He is 26 and still hasn't reached 80 wins. That's not gonna cut it.
So what have I proved here? Only that there are a number of players who, based on the careers of the three most-recent 300-game winners, are guys to watch for the next ten years. Some of them might not ever make it. Some might flame out at 32, as pitchers are prone to do. Some might suffer injuries that cut months and years off their promising careers. But, if I had to bet on it, I would bet that before the year 2020 we will be celebrating more than one new member to this elite club.
Spraying to All Fields
Bobby Jenksed ‘em over and over again
Here's a trivia question nobody ever asks: Which pitcher has retired the most batters in a row? Until Sunday, the answer was Jim Barr. And if Bobby Jenks can retire the next batter he faces, he will be the answer. In 1972, Barr retired the last 21 batters he faced. In his next start, he retired 20 in a row to start the game. Jenks, a closer, has gone about his achievement differently. He hasn't allowed a baserunner since July 17. Think about that. Jenks has gone nearly a month without a walk. No hit by pitch. No hits. No errors. No drop third strike wild pitch. Nobody ever considers this record, but with 41 consecutive record batters that's a perfect game and a half!
Does everyone really love A-Rod and Pujols?
Watching the Little League World Series is always fun, but I'm so sick of every other kid saying Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols is their favorite player. Come on, kids. Let's mix it up a little. With that said, the kid from Ohio who said Honus Wagner was his favorite player is even more ridiculous. Just once I wanna see one of those 12-year-olds say some complete bum is their favorite. "My favorite baseball player is Stubby Clapp." Like you wouldn't love that.
They Call him the Natural
I wish I was the first one to make the comparison between Roy Hobbs and Rick Ankiel, but I'm not. But I love the connection so I'm gonna run with it. I have no idea if Ankiel can sustain production at the major league level, but how can you not root for the guy? He was all but done with baseball, Walt Jockety encouraged him to try a switch to outfield, and now he's doing his part to keep the Cardinals' slim playoff hopes alive. Just gotta hope he stays away from the mysterious women in hotel rooms.
Enter the Sandman
So, by my count, we have about seven weeks left in the 2007 regular season and the pennant races are heating up. So, since being a writer means you can make predictions with absolutely no consequences to being wrong, I'll do that. All the current division winners will win their divisions, except Arizona. The Wild Cards will come from the AL Central and NL East.
