MLB Fastball 08.31.07: Mulling Over The Moose
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 08.31.2007
The New York Yankees are playing critical games at this point in the season – searching for a playoff berth however they can get it. But one obstacle they didn’t foresee was that of a struggling 17-year starting pitching veteran named Mike Mussina. In this week’s MLB Fastball, I examine Mussina’s current state with the Yankees, as well as the potential for a 2008 Yankees’ starting rotation without “The Moose.”
Mulling Over The Moose
Where Do The Yanks & Mussina Go From Here?
(Credit: Yahoo! Sports)
Mussina's spot in the Yankees' starting rotation could be in serious jeopardy.
In the midst of a run for playoff positioning, the last thing the New York Yankees needed was a healthy starting pitcher that just wasn't cutting the mustard on the mound. Unfortunately for the Bronx Bombers, the man they just re-signed this previous offseason on a two-year, $23-million contract is having the worst season of his seven-year stint with the Yankees – and perhaps even the worst season of his entire 17-year career.
After turning in his third consecutive disastrous start on Monday, giving up six runs in three innings of work against the Detroit Tigers, Mussina was essentially pulled out of the starting rotation by manager Joe Torre, even if it is only for one start. He is to be replaced for the time being by Yankees farm hand Ian Kennedy, who is slated to start Saturday against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
For Mussina, I really hope this is just something temporary and he will be able to work out the kinks in his game. It would be such a shame for "The Moose" to have to sit it out the rest of the season or be relocated to the bullpen, where he's not likely to be any more comfortable on the mound than he is right now.
But the 38-year old right-hander might just be starting to show his age. He's had a lengthy career in his 17 years in the big leagues. And he's been a very dependable arm for the Yankees, for the most part, since joining the club in 2001 after spending 10 seasons with the team that drafted him 20th overall in 1990, the Baltimore Orioles.
You wouldn't know it, however, by looking at his numbers this season. Up until this year, Mussina never had an ERA over 4.81. This season, he's currently tossing 5.53 baseball. He also only has 76 strikeouts through 23 starts this season, which takes him far off of where he would normally be in Ks by the end of the season – in the mid- to high-one hundreds.
His vulnerability on the mound has become increasingly apparent in his last three starts.
On Aug. 16 against the Tigers, Mussina suffered the first of his three consecutive losses when he allowed nine hits and seven runs – six earned – in five innings of work. He only struck out two batters, as well as walked two batters, in the process. On Aug. 21, Mussina hit the mound against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and he absolutely bombed in only 1.2 innings of work. In that time, he allowed seven hits and runs, and only struck out one batter while walking two. Then, against the Tigers on Monday, Mussina lasted only three innings and gave up nine hits and six runs while walking one batter.
Before Aug. 16's game against the Tigers, Mussina was a game over .500 on the season with an 8-7 record. Right now, he's 8-10.
Those kinds of starts are an absolute abomination, and Mussina cannot expect to hold a spot in the Yankees starting rotation during an immensely important push toward the playoffs while he struggles. The Yankees need wins, desperately. And to wait for Mussina to pull out of his rut is just not an option New York has right now. So, as hard as it was for Torre to really sit down with Mussina and tell him he's out of the picture for the moment, it was a move Torre had to make with his prideful starter.
Kennedy isn't a guarantee or anything, and he could be just as bad as Mussina. But it's worth a shot at the very least to see if Kennedy to find more success on the mound than Mussina has found recently.
It's also not as if Mussina has been permanently pulled from the rotation. Right now, the Yankees are playing the wait-and-see game, hoping they are given some inclination in the very near future that Mussina can come in and pitch games without turning in bad performances. As of right now, he's being bumped a start in favor of re-evaluating where he is in his game before deciding definitely if he will be held out longer. A strong performance from Kennedy on Saturday will probably play a factor in this as well. Bit it is entirely possible Mussina could be right back in the thick of things in what would be his next scheduled start.
Looking at the games Mussina played prior to his three latest bombs, it's not completely hopeless. He did, after all, manage to put together a four-game winning streak prior to this recent three-game skid.
On July 25, Mussina started against the Kansas City Royals and lasted 5.2 innings in the Yankees' 7-1 victory. He allowed six hits and only one run while striking out four. On July 31, he was credited with the win in the Yankees' 16-3 victory over the Chicago White Sox. Mussina went six innings, allowing six hits and three runs while striking out six batters. On Aug. 5, Mussina hit the mound once again against the Royals, and went six innings while giving up nine hits and two runs. And then against the Cleveland Indians on Aug. 11, he went 7.2 solid innings in New York's 11-2 victory, giving up eight hits and two runs while striking out six.
Before everything went sour, Mussina was putting up some pretty nice starts. You cannot cast complete doubt over a player just based on a three-game skid.
But Torre is still justified in taking Mussina out for now, because the Yankees don't have the latitude at this point in the season with about a month left to allow Mussina to work out his kinks on the mound. Every game is crucial as they take a realistic run at the AL Wild Card and potentially miraculous run for the AL East crown against the Boston Red Sox. So, as Torre has mentioned, he needs to do what is best for the team, not just one individual player.
Perhaps the bigger worry over the long haul that I see here, though, is that if Mussina is just stuck in a permanent rut, what happens to him next season? The Yankees are already scouring their options because they might have to deal without his services this year. But next year casts a whole other shadow of doubt.
If Mussina is basically shot at this point in his career, and Roger Clemens is finally set to call it a career after this season, the Yankees have two holes in their starting rotation. Pettitte should return on his option year. Chien-Ming Wang is going to be around for a while. And Phillip Hughes will continue to mature in a full season in the rotation.
But what about the other two spots?
Well, there is already speculation that Joba Chamberlain will transition himself next season from the bullpen as perhaps the most clutch reliever the Yankees have right now in favor of joining the starting rotation. I'm not completely on board with that frame of thought since I really think we're seeing the potential replacement for Mariano Rivera. I'm not saying I don't want the Yankees to re-sign Rivera this offseason. But even if they do, Rivera's career is coming to a close very soon. And Chamberlain could easily fill his shoes once Rivera finally decides to call it a career within the next few years. For now, he's a perfect eighth-inning setup guy – something he's already proven to be much better at than Kyle Farnsworth.
So while Chamberlain in the starting rotation is pretty dreamy, I think the Yankees should stick with what's working right now and allow Chamberlain to progress his talents in the bullpen.
Kennedy may turn out to be a solid arm for the Yankees for years to come, so he'd definitely be an option to fill a hole. That would be especially true if he does well in whatever games he happens to play this season.
But we can't jump ahead of ourselves and just assume he's definitely going to work out. That just might not be the case. Kennedy is not a guarantee.
Humberto Sánchez probably would have been a nice option to fill a spot in the Yankees' rotation. However, the 24-year old, who was included in the Gary Sheffield deal, is currently sidelined after having Tommy John Surgery and is out for at least the 2008 season, potentially part of 2009. So he will not be in pinstripes next season.
Darrell Rasner and Matt DeSalvo are two decent options to put out there. But I'm not sure those are the prettiest names on paper when looking at the long haul of an entire Major League season. They're good spot starters, but extended work in the Majors might not be the best option for the Yankees.
Kei Igawa seems like a lost cause and I wouldn't invest too much into him making an impact for the 2008 Yankees.
And lets just try to forget about Carl Pavano. He's proven time and time that he will probably never be healthy enough to pitch for the Yankees. It's just something the organization has to live with. It wouldn't be the first time they bombed with the starting pitcher and it probably won't be the last, unfortunately.
Essentially, there are a lot of question marks for what the starting rotation would be for the Yankees next season sans Mussina.
The Yankees could probably deal with having to fill one void in the rotation at the backend. But having to fill two spots after Wang, Pettitte and Hughes is not going to be a good time for Brian Cashman and Co. And they might do something drastic like ink an overrated starter off the free agent market or do what I'm actually pretty vehemently against, and that's move Chamberlain to the starting rotation.
Without Mussina, things become a lot more complicated next season since the Yankees were undoubtedly counting on him for at least that final year in his contract. Things become a lot easier if he can pick his game back up and shake his off, once again becoming the reliable starter he once was.
The same could be said for this season, pending Mussina can get himself back on track and prove to his coaches that he still has what it takes to contribute to a team playing for their lives in search of a playoff spot. Because if he can't prove that he's capable of bouncing back, he remains a liability for the organization.
But proof that what transpired over his last three games was merely a bad stretch of outings, and the Yankees' pitching situation becomes a lot less nerve-wracking for everybody with a rooting interest in them.
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