MLB Fastball 09.07.07: Final Push For Playoff Positioning
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 09.07.2007
October is looming, and some teams are preparing to make their final pushes toward playoff competition. In this week’s MLB Fastball, I take a look at the divisional and Wild Card situations in each league and predict who is going to come out on top in each with the few remaining weeks left in the MLB regular season!
While there is still plenty of baseball action to be played in the 2007 MLB season, there's also little doubt that the season is winding down. With less than a month remaining to the regular season, the teams on the outside looking in have very little opportunity left to reverse their fortunes.
If the season were to end today, we would be in store for some solid October baseball. The Boston Red Sox would win the AL East, the Cleveland Indians would win the AL Central, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim would win the AL West and the New York Yankees would grab the AL Wild Card, which has been unfamiliar territory for the Bronx Bombers for many years. In the National League, the New York Mets would take the NL West, the Chicago Cubs would take the NL Central, the Arizona Diamondbacks would take the NL West and grabbing the NL Wild Card would be the San Diego Padres, giving the NL West two straight surprising years of two-playoff spot clinchers.
At this point, it's probably safe to say the Red Sox have the AL East locked up. All season long, I have kept the faith in the Yankees and believed they could overcome whatever lead Boston had on them to take the division regardless. But at this point in the season, being six games back is a bit tough to overcome. And I think the Yankees focusing on the Wild Card is the best possible for thing for them. Don't get me wrong, they should still keep a shoot for the moon philosophy. But it just doesn't seem probable anymore that New York can win enough games and have Boston lose enough games to clinch the AL East, something the Yankees have done every season since 1998. The last time Boston was able to win the AL East was in 1995, when they were swept in three games by Cleveland. In 2007, they will hope to do a lot better. With Josh Beckett leading the charge on the mound and David Ortiz riling up the bats, the Red Sox should be prepared to play some playoff baseball. They're fairly deep all around and I think they could make a run of things. I won't say World Series, because that's just a sin for me. But I won't be surprised to see them make it at least to the ALCS. AL East Winner: Boston Red Sox
In the AL Central, we have pretty much the same story. The Detroit Tigers are next in line in the division, but I can't see them making up a 6.5-game deficit to the Indians. The Tigers' best scenario at this point for a second-straight playoff berth is via clinching the Wild Card, where they are currently three games back behind the Yankees. The Indians were a dark horse to take the division this year and they have pulled through. Strong pitching, led by C.C. Sabathia, and solid offensive output, led by Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore, has allowed Cleveland to compete highly in a tough division that was actually mostly favored to be won by teams like the Minnesota Twins and Tigers. Cleveland has gone 9-1 in its last 10 contests and has played really solid baseball all season long. It would take a complete disaster for the Indians to end up out of the playoffs come October. So it really is a safe bet that they have the AL Central this season. AL Central Winner: Cleveland Indians
The AL West is all Los Angeles'. The Seattle Mariners are in the fight for the AL Wild Card, but going 1-9 in the past 10 starts will certainly not help Seattle's cause. So basically, the Angels' top competition for the division title is hardly on track to compete for the Wild Card. The Angels have really been solid this season. They're pitching is led by the likes of John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, who have 16 and 15 wins, respectively. They have received strong hitting, especially in the contact department, from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Chone Figgins and Orlando Cabrera. I fear that once in the playoffs, the Angels might be in for some trouble (unless they play the Yankees, of course.) But as far as getting to October baseball is concerned, the Angels have this thing in the bag. AL West Winner: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The AL Wild Card is still very much up for grabs, but I think the favorites to this point have to be the current holders of the position. The Yankees have faired decently in recent contests, and should be able to put up enough of a fight to keep hold of their seeding. Seattle has been playing horrible baseball lately, so I doubt they're really going to be a factor moving forward. Detroit will certainly make this thing interesting, as I do feel they can keep it close with the Yankees, especially now that they have Gary Sheffield back in the lineup. But when it's all said and done, I highly doubt this will be the first season in a long time that we don't see pinstripes in the playoffs. AL Wild Card Winner: New York Yankees
With the return of Pedro Martinez comes a boost for the rest of the season and the playoffs in the Mets' camp. The Mets haven't run away with this division like they did last season, but they are still very much the favorites to walk away with it. I would say there's a chance the Philadelphia Phillies could come up with the shocker and take over the NL East from the Mets. But let's be honest here, people. It's the Phillies. After completing a four-game sweep with the Mets to make up some major ground, they just went ahead and lost two out of three to both the Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves, including a heart-breaker on Wednesday when the Phillies blew an 8-2 lead against the Braves. So while there's always a chance for the Phillies, they won't make it happen. The Braves are 7.5 games back right now, so I wouldn't bank on them making things interesting, either. The Mets are not as strong of a team as they were last season, so I wouldn't stencil them in for a long playoff run right away unless their entire starting pitching staff comes up with absolute gems for the rest of the month. Offensively, I think this team will be all right. But pitching needs to become a lot more consistent, including in the bullpen, for the Mets to give this whole playoff thing a serious run next month. It could be the one thing that really hurts them in what actually looks to be a fairly weak National League playoff class in 2007. NL East Winner: New York Mets
In the NL Central, I think we'll see a change as the season progresses. Right now, the Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers have the same record in the division and it seems like the Cubs' return to the playoffs might be put on hold. Even the St. Louis Cardinals still stand a chance, being only 1.5 games back right now. This division is not nearly as strong as it once was, and picking a winner is like picking the team that's going to screw up the least between now and the end of the season. Deep down, I still believe we'll see a return to playoff action from the Cardinals. And at this point, it would have to be through the division. At six games back, the Wild Card is out of reach for St. Louis. Being 1.5 games back is not nearly insurmountable, especially in such a weak division. The Cardinals are nowhere near as good as they have been in recent seasons, and are suffering greatly from the practically season-long loss of ace Chris Carpenter. But I firmly believe that there's always a chance with Albert Pujols around. And when it's all said and done, I think he will pull this team through and get them a very close NL Central clinching. If the Cardinals don't do it, I think the Cubs will hang on and make it. But right now, I'm pulling for St. Louis. NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
The NL West has become a lot more interesting over the past few seasons. Nobody really expects this to be the division in the National League that walks out with two teams. But for the second-straight season, it appears as if the NL West might just be the lucky victor that gets two representatives in the playoffs. As far as the division is concerned, the Diamondbacks currently lead the pack. They have been a surprise this year, especially since they have managed to play well enough without their ace in the starting rotation, Randy Johnson. To be more accurate, Johnson did play 10 games this season. But overall, that has made very little impact on the organization in their run this season. What has happened, however, is the team continued to get tremendous outings out of Brandon Webb, who I would even more accurately describe as Arizona's ace. And they also managed to get some solid plate production from Eric Byrnes, who has never exactly been a superstar in the MLB but has come up as a pretty reliable bat and base runner for the Diamondbacks this year. There has naturally been some good support as well on both ends, and the bullpen has been a nice surprise, especially with José Valverde currently holding 42 saves and a 2.83 ERA. The San Diego Padres are definitely going to keep the pressure up, though, as they are only one game back now in the division. I think the Los Angeles Dodgers could put up a fight being only 3.5 games back, but I'm at the point where I think this will end up being a two-team race. It won't be insane for the Dodgers to come up and take it. But I think Arizona or San Diego will win it when it's all said and done. And since I'm in that predicting sort of mood, I'll go with Arizona to win the NL West. NL West Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
The NL Wild Card is currently being held by the Padres. So even if the Padres do take over in the NL West, that would likely mean Arizona would be in a good spot to just take over in competition for the Wild Card. The Dodgers are 2.5 games back there, and the Phillies are right on their tail being three games back. And right behind the Phillies is Colorado, another NL West team, at four games back. I really want to call the Phillies to take the Wild Card for some reason, but I really don't see it happening. I mean, hey, it's the Phillies! Get real! And they can't put on a good consistent run. So, I'm going to go with the Padres to keep the Wild Card and basically leave everything as is in the NL West and the Wild Card running. They have some really solid pitching. They're questionable offense will hurt them down the line. But the pitching should be enough to get them to the postseason. NL Wild Card Winner: San Diego Padres
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