The Underground Insight 9.11.07: Limping to the Finish
Posted by JD Koziarski on 09.11.2007
The National League Central is anybody’s race, but no team appears willing to take control. The Insight looks at which of the remaining contenders has the best chance to lose the least the rest of the way.
The Show
(Note: All numbers, stats, etc. are through Sunday's games)
With just twenty games to play, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs are separated by just a game. Two games behind the Cubs are the St. Louis Cardinals, in third place but with two more games to play to catch the two teams ahead. They are not just a third-place team, they're a third-place team that has two more losses than wins.
The Mighty Brew Crew – the leaders of this lame pack – are a mere four games over the break even mark. Despite their recent hot streak, can anybody feel confident that they will sustain this torrid seven-of-the-last-ten pace?
The Cardinals have three games a piece against the teams they trail – three in Miller Park during the last week of the season and a crucial four-game tilt (including a Saturday double-dip) this coming weekend at home against the Cubs. If the team from the Gateway City hopes to defend their 2006 title, they need to win these two series.
They certainly can win these series if Rick Ankiel's season – slightly less magical due to recent unconfirmed reports of a three-year-old HGH acquisition – continues to result in home runs and Cardinals wins. The Cardinals also have the added advantage of having the best player the division wearing their jersey.
Albert Pujols in a down year is still something special. He has 30 home runs, 30 doubles, and has an OPS of .986.
The key for the Cards is the same as it was last season. Can their pitching hold up? Mark Mulder is back but he's throwing BP fastballs and he looks to be finished. Maybe the Cardinals can get some Suppanesque performances from Braden Looper or Mike Maroth or Anthony Reyes, but does anybody really believe that will happen? The Cardinals aren't dead. More than one-third of their games are against the teams that matter, so they can make a strong push. But I'm not betting on it.
The Cubs and Brewers have already completed their season series, so while Milwaukee controls its destiny the Cubs – even with the bloated payroll of superstars like Soriano, Ramirez, and Lee – will need a little bit of help from some other teams.
In fact, one team, all but dead in the NL Central race, could ultimately decide which team from the Midwest advances to the playoffs. The Cincinnati Reds have 12 of their final 19 games against the three teams vying for the top spot. While nobody is going to call the Reds a good team, they do have the offense to be dangerous.
They also have Aaron Harang, a long-shot Cy Young candidate who is 14-4 with a 3.64 ERA in 30 starts this season. Harang could be key in deciding the Central race.
Harang is scheduled to pitch next against the Cardinas Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati. Assuming Harang pitches every fifth day through the end of the season, he'll pitch twice against the Cubs and once in a bizarrely-scheduled trip to San Francisco. In a race where just a game separates the Cubs and the Brewers, two games against one of the best starters in the league might send the Cubs home for an early winter.
I think the Cubs have the most talent in the division, but I also think they're a poorly constructed team. Alfonso Soriano is not a leadoff hitter. Steve Trachsel is no longer a viable starter. And while Ryan Dempster has been mostly solid this year, he is still prone to a 4-run implosion that makes him a strong candidate for the Brewers bullpen.
The Brewers miss the Cubs and Harang in their final 20 games. They are 7-3 in their last ten and their next nine are against the worst in the division. The Brewers should win the NL Central. The Cubs might have more talent. The Cardinals are the defending champs. But the Brewers are a solid young team that has all those little factors on their side.
Although not the most politically correct, the phrase "the tallest midget" suits the Munchkin Land that is the NL Central. Whichever team stumbles, bumbles, and falls past the finish line in the lead will be the ugly duckling of the Major League playoffs, but last year the Redbird-headed stepchild defied the odds and won the World Series. Maybe that can happen again this season.
Not likely.
Enter the Sandman
When I began typing this column more than a day ago, I thought it would be fun to analyze just how craptacular the NL Central is. It wasn't fun. In fact, the NL Central is only interesting in the way a three-car pileup on the highway is interesting. Unfortunately, it is the best race in baseball this year. Let's hope those playoffs are a lot better than September is shaping up to be.
