MLB Fastball 09.14.07: Padres’ Pitching Not Enough
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 09.14.2007
Pitching is typically viewed as the No. 1 indicator of which team has the best shot to go all the way in the MLB. But a severe lack of bats can be just as much of a detriment. In this week’s MLB Fastball, I discuss why a strong pitching staff will not be enough to compensate for one of the worst offenses in the league.
Pitching Not Enough
Lack Of Offense Will Hurt Padres
(Credit: www.flickr.com)
Leading NL Cy Young candidate Jake Peavy leads a rotation that's imperative to any success San Diego has.
The San Diego Padres have sick stuff on the mound.
They have Jake Peavy, who currently leads the National League in all three major pitching categories – wins, ERA and strikeouts. They have Chris Young, second in command on the Padres' starting rotation. Young is second in ERA in the NL. He only has nine wins and 142 strikeouts, but he has missed some time and probably could have put up at least another two wins if he was at the 30-game plateau Peavy is now. Third in line is veteran righty Greg Maddux. Maddux has been around the block a time or two, and will take his expertise back into the postseason. In 30 games played this season, Maddux is 12-9 with a 3.68 ERA.
Even in the bullpen, the Padres are fairly stacked.
All the way at the end is Trevor Hoffman, who has proven his place in history throughout the years. The man who holds the all-time saves record collected 37 of them this season. Hoffman also only blew four saves the entire season. Players like Heath Bell, Cla Meredith and Doug Brocail, though not perfect, do admirable jobs of leading to Hoffman.
And with all this firepower and some of the best numbers in pitching, the Padres sit 2.5 games ahead of the competition in the NL Wild Card race – their closest competition coming from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies.
Unfortunately, all of this prowess on the mound won't be enough to get the Padres deep in the playoffs – perhaps not even past the first round. For as much as people will say pitching wins championships in Major League Baseball, the Padres have absolutely no offense to compete against some of the better all-around teams in the league.
The Padres are 28th in the league in batting average with a .249 mark. To be fair, the current NL West leaders, the Arizona Diamondbacks, possess a team ERA of 2.48. But the Padres and Diamondbacks will not match up in the first round since they come from the same division.
San Diego's leader in batting average is Brian Giles, who is hitting .287 on the season. That means the Padres don't have a single .300 hitter on their team, and really nobody all that close to it. Adrían González follows Giles at .275, while Josh Bard comes in at .264. Forget about hitting for power, if you can't hit the ball period, you're screwed. And the Padres only rank 27th in on-base percentage, so it's not like walks are really saving the team, either.
The Padres are a little bit better in the power department, ranking in the middle of the pack with home runs and doubles. But that power isn't bringing the runs in quite like it should since the Padres rank 25th in RBIs with only 610 on the season. They have four less RBIs than the Kansas City Royals, and that's just shouldn't happen.
To be honest, nobody in the Padres' lineup is intimidating.
González certainly leads the charge, but I've always found him to be overrated. He has 26 home runs, 86 RBIs and 85 runs scored. Those are good numbers for a player who is maybe third or fourth on a team. But to be No. 1 on the team's roster in those statistics is hardly something to be proud of. And again, he's not really making up for it in average, either. He's batting .275.
There's also very little speed on the team. Mike Cameron leads the Padres in stolen bases with 17. After him is Marcus Giles with 10. José Cruz has six. Khalil Greene and Giles come in with four. I mean, you see where I'm going here. Once these guys get on base, it's not really a huge concern for opposing pitchers because there isn't a high probability of bases getting stolen. Just continue to pitch the ball and you're fine.
This also shows that holding onto Dave Roberts might have been a benefit for San Diego instead of letting him head on over to San Francisco, where he is basically wasting away on a lost cause.
So while the Padres have a strong pitching staff led by the top NL Cy Young candidate in Peavy, they don't have the compliments needed to hang with other all-around organizations. And I've always been a firm believe that good all-around ability on a team (pitching and batting in baseball, offense and defense in everything else) is much better than just having a solid pitching staff (defense in every other sport.)
If they played the Diamondbacks in the first round, the Padres would probably have a chance at advancing. But, again, that's not possible.
So, that leaves the New York Mets or the Chicago Cubs/Milwaukee Brewers as the Padres' first round opponent.
If the Padres have to take on the Mets, I'm pretty sure there's very little chance San Diego can escape the series without getting embarrassed. The Mets' offense is far superior to that comprising the Padres. And on the mound, while the Mets do need to get their starting and relieving staffs in order, I think there's enough there to hang with San Diego, especially with Pedro Martinez' return.
The NL Central is still up for grabs, but it looks like the Cubs and Brewers have the best shot at occupying the division crown by the end of the season. Right now, the two teams are tied with a 74-71 record.
If the Padres play the Cubs, I think the Cubs match up very well pitching-wise. Carlos Zambrano vs. Peavy would be a stellar way to start the series and could really go either way. Ted Lilly has also put on a pretty good season, to my surprise. He's actually partly earned the $10-million he is getting paid this year. Offensively, the team has struggled and there's little denying that. However, I have more faith in Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramírez showing up for the playoffs than any of the "big" names in San Diego. And even though Ramírez and Lee haven't hit for power like one would expect, at least the batting average is there for them. Both are over .300 at the plate this year. Even Soriano is better than the Padres' top batter with a .290 mark.
The Brewers might be a defeatable opponent for the Padres, though I'd still give the advantage to Milwaukee. After Ben Sheets, who is 12-4 in 22 starts, the Brewers offer a group of pitchers that should be playing better than they are. Those pitchers are Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas. There's no reason to suspect any of those pitchers will be lights out when the postseason hits, if it does for Milwaukee. But the bullpen is capable of getting the Brewers out of jams with 41-save artist Francisco Cordero and guys like Matt Wise, Scott Linebrink and Brian Shouse leading up to him. Plus, the Brewers offer a much better offense than the Padres do, led by NL MVP Award candidate Prince Fielder. Fielder leads the NL in home runs with 44 and is third in RBIs with 106. He also has some good support from guys like Corey Hart, who has a .296 batting average and 74 runs scored, and rookie Ryan Braun, who has a .328 batting average as well as 30 homers and 82 RBIs in his first year in the big leagues. So, Milwaukee's pitching isn't great by any means, but it should be enough to at least let the team's bats do most of the dirty work.
Of course, in a very weak league, which the NL has been this year, anything is possible. The way I see it right now, though, the very noticeable lack of bats in San Diego cannot be compensated for by its pitching.
It might be enough to get them to the postseason, but I think the Padres' season ends in the first round of October baseball.
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