MLB Fastball 09.28.07: One More Weekend
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 09.28.2007
The 2007 MLB season is just about over, with one weekend left before the playoffs get kicking. In this week’s edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein looks at the potential matchups in the American League and takes a look at the competitive races still going on in all three National League divisions!
The American League is in order. The National League – not so much.
The Major League Baseball playoffs are tentatively scheduled to begin on Oct. 3. That means the regular season is winding down to its end with about three-four games left per team.
In the National League, all division races remain heated going into the final weekend of the regular season.
Last night, a tie in the NL East formed after the Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets suffered a 3-0 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Chicago Cubs managed to break away a bit from the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central and currently have a two-game lead. And in the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks possess only a one-game lead in the division. The San Diego Padres are next in line, and they also lead the NL Wild Card by one game over the Mets and Phillies.
Meanwhile, the American League already has its representatives set. Though the New York Yankees could technically still win the AL East, the Boston Red Sox' magic number is one and that should be enough to get them their first division title in 12 years. The Yankees clinched at least the AL Wild Card, though, so there will still be October baseball in the Bronx. The Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim clinched the AL Central and the AL West, respectively, on Sept. 23.
Now, since the American League is pretty much set, I think we're looking at an Indians vs. Yankees series and Red Sox vs. Angels series.
The Yankees' benefit greatly from a series against the Indians in the ALDS. There's no way they could play the Red Sox in the first round since they play in the same division. So, New York would either have to play Cleveland or Los Angeles. And the Yankees don't have a lot of luck against the Angels.
I'm not trying to say the Indians are pushovers, though. There's little doubt that the Indians will compete and put up a fight against New York in the first round. The Indians have some of the best pitching in baseball right now. C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona give Cleveland a strong start at the top of the rotation for the opening games of the series. But with Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte slated to get the first two games for New York, the Yankees certainly have a shot. This is especially true considering the Yankees boast perhaps the best offense in the MLB right now. I'm going with the Yankees taking the series in four games and moving on to the ALCS.
The Red Sox vs. Angels series seems pretty fun at first thought. But the Red Sox really outmatch the Angles pretty heavily both in hitting and pitching.
The Angels and Red Sox are both tremendous teams for contact hitting – No. 4 and 5 in the league, respectively. However, the Red Sox have a lot more power to offer at the plate than the Angels. Boston has 42 more team home runs than Los Angeles, and they also have 47 more team RBIs.
The Red Sox are also one of the best teams when it comes to pitching in the Majors. If it weren't for the Padres, they'd probably be the best pitching team in the MLB.
Josh Beckett is not only Boston's ace, but he's also pretty heavily in the running for the AL Cy Young Award. In fact, I'll go as far to say he's my selection for the award.
But Beckett is far from it in Boston pitching.
There's also Curt Schilling, who has playoff experience. There's Daisuke Matsuzaka, who doesn't quite have that same experience but is a 14-game winner in his rookie year and does have some knowledge of how to play in big games. Tim Wakefield can be a dependable arm when the playoffs roll around. And while the Red Sox don't exactly have a sure-fire No. 5 to send out to the mound, that's not entirely necessary in the postseason.
Los Angeles does have the talent to put up a fight, though. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are 18- and 17-game winners, respectively. They can more than carry their own. Jered Weaver comes in as a decent third arm, though he's not as clutch as he was last season. But past him, nobody has been all that reliable this season. So, while the Red Sox have at least four starters capable of putting on good performances in the playoffs, the Angels have two or potentially three.
And as long as the Red Sox limit Eric Gagné's game action, I'd venture that Boston also has a better bullpen.
So, with hitting and pitching both favorable for Boston, the Red Sox move on to the ALCS in four games to play the Yankees, in my opinion.
The National League is a bit trickier to figure out since all of its divisions are still up in the air.
For the life of me, I never figured Philadelphia would pull out a realistic possibility of making the playoffs.
The Mets could have avoided this situation by not dropping their last four games to the likes of the Washington Nationals (who swept the Mets) and the Cardinals. While they lost those games, the Phillies managed to take two of three from the Atlanta Braves and three of four from the Nationals. Now, Phillies fans are pretty much growing crazy because one weekend can turn Philadelphia into a city of absolute insanity.
Maybe it's the pessimist in me, but I'm still not buying the Phillies' hype. I believe the Phillies are still the Phillies and will get as close as humanly possible without actually getting there. In other words, I still see no playoffs in Philadelphia.
But hey, this is as close as they've come in quite some time. There really is no strength in schedule between the Mets and Phillies. New York closes out in a three-game set against the Florida Marlins and Philadelphia plays three against Washington. And if any team has the momentum to get some wins, it's the Phillies, who have played better baseball lately.
So it's just going to be a wait-and-see process at this point. Every game matters. And if the Phillies can pull this out, just making the playoffs will be cause of celebration for the team's fans. And the uproar in New York over the Mets will be pretty intense and I'm sure we'll see many calls for Willie Randolph to be fired.
In the NL Central, a two-game lead would seem to be enough of a cushion for the Cubs to make the playoffs this year. With a season-ending series of three games against the Cincinnati Reds, it's not as if it's a very tall order either to end the season with some wins. And with the Brewers playing their final three games against the Padres, I'd say the Cubs have the strength in schedule, bar none. Anything can happen in this final weekend of games, but I'd be willing to bet Chicago has the NL Central wrapped up.
The NL West is a bit more open. It's not exactly the first place tie the NL East has, but Arizona has only one win in its last four games. Meanwhile, the Padres have won three of their last four. So, the Padres have a little bit more momentum, and are only one game back. The Padres close out the season against the Brewers, so that's going to be a tight series with two teams that have an agenda. But the Padres seem to have a strong shot at winning the series, which they are already one-game up in. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have to play the Colorado Rockies, which I think is a tougher opponent than Milwaukee.
So both teams are playing tough competition, but I think the Diamondbacks have it a bit harder. And so, I think the Padres will be able to somehow squeak out enough games to overcome the Diamondbacks' lead and take over the NL West.
I think Arizona will still make the playoffs as the Wild Card winner. But at this point, that would be a bit of a letdown.
I did receive some e-mail this past week, and intend to get that up with my response sometime over the weekend or next week. It will be posted on my blog, which can be found here. Graduate School is kicking my butt a bit, so I can't guarantee it'll be up right away. But I'm hoping to get that up within a week.
Otherwise …
Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com.
