The Underground Insight 10.1.07: Repeating History – The Worst Winning it All
Posted by JD Koziarski on 10.01.2007
Last year, the St. Louis Cardinals defied the odds and won the World Series after winning just 83 regular season games. This season, the worst playoff team is undoubtedly the Arizona Diamondbacks – a team outscored by 20 runs this season. Do the D-Backs have the tools to compete on a playoff caliber level?
Designed for the Playoffs
The people in St. Louis weren't concerned with regular season records last October. Their team limped – in some cases literally – into the playoffs and improbably won the 2006 World Series. While many believed the Cardinals had no business even being in the playoffs, the reality of that team was that vital players were absent from regular season games but were healthy for the playoffs. And some players, like Jeff Weaver, forgot just how bad they were once fall rolled around.
In 2007, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in a similar position to be doubted, but their circumstances couldn't be more different. Their most famous and oldest player, Randy Johnson, has been a non-factor for most of the year, but he won't be back for Wednesday's tilt against the Cubs in Phoenix. He might never be back. However, even without an infusion of reinforcements, the Diamondbacks could be the most-dangerous team in the National League.
To be outscored and still win 90 games is probably an amazing stroke of luck. But just because the Diamondbacks maybe should not have won 90 games, they did, and once they get into the playoffs they are going to be difficult to beat.
Brandon Webb won't repeat his Cy Young victory from 2006, but that's just because Jake Peavy has done to hitters what Vic Mackey does to street thugs. But Webb is the second-best starter in the National League playoffs this year, assuming the Padres can squeak past the surging Rockies on Monday. And the Diamondbacks proved six years ago that having one world-beating starter is half the battle.
The other half is having a second world-beating starter.
Having Johnson would be nice, but the replacement options aren't so bad. After the Game 1 match-up of young aces with nasty stuff (Webb vs. Carlos Zambrano), Game 2 lends itself to the crafty lefty as Ted Lilly brings a career year into the desert to take on former Milwaukee Brewer, Doug Davis. Davis has had some success against the Cubs in the past; while he's no Big Unit, the Cubs' struggles against left-handed pitching this season make Davis a solid bet.
After Johnson and Schilling, the 2001 Diamondbacks had a solid back-end of the bullpen. Despite his World Series woes, Byung-Hyun Kim was a dependable reliever. In 2007, the Diamondbacks have five very good pitchers coming out of a bullpen anchored by Jose Valverde, the excitable closer who finished the season with 47 saves and a 2.66 ERA. Manager of the Year (insofar as a manager deserves an award for doing, well, whatever we think it is they do – a guy whose team won 11 more games than they should have should get it) Bob Melvin can turn any game into a 6 inning game.
Along with Valverde, Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, and Doug Slaten could be collective MVP for the D-Backs this season. Their combined 2.98 ERA in 256 2/3 IP rules the Earth.
It has to be all about dominant pitching for the Diamondbacks because they're 14th in the NL in On-Base Percentage and 9th in Slugging Percentage. They have just two players with more than 20 home runs – Chris Young (32) and Eric Byrnes (21). Young gets on base less than 30% of the time and Byrnes is slugging just .412 since the All-Star break. Their best offensive player might be 23-year-old Mark Reynolds, who has had a torrid August and September after a miserable June and July.
In short, the mediocrity of the Diamondbacks offense puts the burden directly onto the pitching staff – namely Brandon Webb. What works in the Diamondbacks' favor is that Webb is exactly the guy you want to have to put the team on his back and carry him through the postseason. In 2001, Curt Schilling went 4-0 in the postseason. Randy Johnson went 5-1. Doug Davis going 5-1 might be a stretch, but Brandon Webb can pitch twice in the NLDS, if needed. He might even be able to go three times in the longer series. In each of the past four seasons he's pitched more than 200 innings, giving his greatest effort this year with 236 2/3. Webb has proven he can be the workhorse.
It just so happens that he might have to do just that. If he does, maybe the Diamondbacks can figure out a way to win the World Series while getting outscored in the playoffs.
