MLB Fastball 11.23.07: Trading Johan Santana
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 11.23.2007
The Minnesota Twins are faced with the dilemma of dealing the ace of their starting rotation. Two-time Cy Young Award winning Johan Santana can become a free agent following the 2008 season, and the Twins are not ready to fork over the kind of cash he’s going to command. In this edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein examines Santana’s situation, including who are the top suitors and when might be the right time to trade him away. Torii Hunter’s signing with the Angels and the New York Mets’ catching situation are also discussed!
The New York Mets, unable to come to terms with Yorvit Torrealba and unwilling to crawl back to Paul Lo Duca, locked up their catching position on Tuesday by acquiring veteran Johnny Estrada. In a trade that sent Guillermo Mota to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Mets solidified their 1-2 punch behind the plate for the 2008 season.
Estrada will replace Lo Duca as the Mets' No. 1 catching option. Ramón Castro, who re-signed with the Mets on Nov. 16 for a reported $4 million over two seasons, will back him up. Castro has been a solid reserve for the Mets the past three years, seeing an average of 159 at bats each season.
Estrada's addition to the team ends the search for a new starting catcher. The Mets were reluctant to bring Lo Duca back and made that clear from the very beginning. They wanted Jorge Posada, but that plan was thwarted when he re-signed with the Yankees for four years at $52.4 million. Negotiations on a three-year deal at $14.4 million with Torrealba came to a screeching halt when the Mets came to the sudden revelation that they did not want a catcher with a history of shoulder problems. Very few options were left for New York, and turning to the trade market seemed to be its only reasonable option for finding a high-profile catcher that could productively start behind the plate.
The deal not only keeps Estrada in the National League, where he has played his entire seven-year career, but it also brings him back to the NL East. Estrada was selected by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 17th round of the 1997 draft. He played a total of 19 games with the Phillies from 2001-2002. The Phillies dealt him to the Atlanta Braves in December 2002 for starting pitcher Kevin Millwood. In 2003, Estrada spent most of his time in Triple-A Richmond. But he came to the big leagues for good in 2004, playing in 134 games for the Braves. He spent one more year in Atlanta before being traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and then being traded from Arizona to the Milwaukee Brewers. After two years away, he's back in the NL East.
Though I believe the Mets are better off with Lo Duca, that relationship had been drastically strained. Estrada might not be as good as Lo Duca on an all-around basis, but he isn't really that much of a drop-off. Estrada has the ability to be a decent offensive contributor and can do one thing Lo Duca cannot – switch hit.
The Mets have yet to decide playing time between Estrada and Castro, but I'd like to see Castro receive more starts. I would not have minded the Mets going into the season with Castro as their starting catcher. But I can understand why depth is important and why he will have to play backup to Estrada. But that doesn't mean he should not see significant playing time.
Undoubtedly, Estrada will carry the bulk of the load, though. And while he's not as good as Lo Duca, in my opinion, he will be good enough for the team and can ease general manager Omar Minaya into concentrating more on finding starting pitching for the 2008 season.
Torii Hunter signs with the Halos
In other news, Torii Hunter had about 90 million reasons to give thanks on Thursday. As perhaps the hottest center fielder on the market, Hunter finally chose a new home and signed on the dotted line with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The deal averages out to $18 million per season.
While Hunter's real worth comes in his defensive play, he is a very strong producer at the plate, as well. Last season, he led the Minnesota Twins with a .287 batting average, 45 doubles and 94 runs. He also ranked second on the team in home runs (28) and RBIs (107). Hunter has some speed to his game, too, and stole 18 bases in 2007. Essentially, he's a solid all-around player.
Is he worth $18 million a season? Absolutely not. And if I can find any fault in the Angels' signing of Hunter, it would be that they severely overpaid for him. Hunter really should have topped at $15 million a season. And now this move will set a new standard for other free agents looking to bank on big money deals. But the Angels came out of nowhere with an interest in Hunter, and were competing against other teams that may have already had good deals on the table – such as Texas' reported $80 million, five-year offer.
While signing Hunter could be viewed as just clogging the outfield in LA, I don't see it that way. The Angels will sport a very strong outfield next season. They already have Vladimir Guerrero in right, Garrett Anderson in left and Gary Matthews, Jr. in center. But the plan, if all players remain with the team, is to play Hunter, a seven-time Gold Glove winner, in center field "virtually every day," according to manager Mike Scioscia. Matthews will see time in the outfield to help rest Guerrero and Anderson, who will see time at designated hitter as well in 2008.
Matthews is entering the second season of a five-year, $50 million deal, and could be a prime candidate to be dealt this offseason.
Signing Hunter is the second transaction the Angels have made. Earlier in the week, they traded Gold Glove shortstop Orlando Cabrera to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for starting pitcher Jon Garland. This deal, which leaves a hole at shortstop, could have the Angels eyeing Baltimore's Miguel Tejeda.
Even without these moves, the Angels were clearly the favorites to win the AL West long before the 2008 even started. But by brining in Hunter and acquiring another good starter for an already strong rotation, the Angels pretty much solidified their spot ahead of the Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers.
Johan Santana On The Market
One Of Baseball's Best Pitchers Available For Bidding
Photo Credit: www.startribune.com
Minnesota ace Johan Santana's ability to become a high-priced free agent following the 2008 season could have him on the move this offseason.
The Minnesota Twins just lost their star center fielder to free agency. They received nothing in return and now have a gaping hole that they will never fill with a player of the same or similar caliber. Minnesota needs to learn from this experience and not allow the same thing to happen to their ace, Johan Santana.
Eligible to hit free agency next winter, Santana is in store for one hell of a pay raise. With Barry Zito and Carlos Zambrano both earning $18 million a season or more over the past year, the two-time Cy Young Award winner is undoubtedly in store for at least that much money, probably significantly more. It would be far from shocking if Santana became the first pitcher in baseball history to earn $20 million a season. At that price, the Twins are unwilling to bring back their most productive starting pitcher in quite some time.
With that in mind, the Twins are in an intriguing spot. With so many teams looking for strong starting pitching and the Twins' high probability of losing Santana for nothing next offseason, dealing their ace might just be the best possible move. And while some would argue making a move closer to the trade deadline is smarter for Minnesota, I firmly believe the market is much hotter now than it will be come July.
The one caveat is that if the Twins believe they are contenders, they are going to be bigger contenders with Santana in their rotation. That might be the hesitance in making a deal now. At least at the trade deadline, they will have a better idea if they can make the playoffs. If they trade him now, they will still have Francisco Liriano to lead the way coming back from Tommy John surgery, and Matt Garza and Scott Baker to back him up in the rotation. But the Twins won't have their ace.
I do still think, though, that they are taking a big chance of getting far less in return from interested terms if they choose to wait until the trade deadline to pull the trigger on a deal. And waiting any longer than the trade deadline means they will lose him for nothing as a free agent – the one thing that they want to completely avoid out of all of this.
Many teams have an interest in Santana. The most publicized are the teams always on board when high-profile names are discussed. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets are keeping tabs on Santana's situation with the Twins. It will cost any of those teams a pretty penny.
The Red Sox might have the best shot at grabbing Santana, though I still don't understand why they need another starting pitcher outside of just trying to keep him away from the Yankees – hardly a good reason to make a high-profile move like this. Boston happens to currently possess a center fielder highly coveted by the Twins in Coco Crisp. The Red Sox would love to part with Crisp and the Twins would love to take him. Unfortunately, it's not that easy for Boston and a lot of other pieces would need to go Minnesota's way. The Red Sox would need to include either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz and several other prospects. Depending on what the final package turns out to be, if Lester or Buchholz are the biggest losses on Boston's end, then it would be a good deal for them considering they're getting the 28-year old Santana in return. But if another big-name veteran needs to be tossed in there, then the Red Sox might have to part with too much.
The Yankees probably have better chips to toss at Minnesota, but they are not very high on the idea of parting with guys like Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain and Melky Cabrera. The team took a "no chance in hell" stance when looking to acquire Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins. But Santana is a different story because the Yankees are always searching for pitching and he would give the Bronx Bombers one of the best in the game. Any deal would probably have to include Cabrera since he's an outfielder and could be an everyday center fielder in Minnesota. Then it would also likely take one of the top-tier starting names and perhaps a second-tier starter like Humberto Sánchez to pry Santana away from the Twins. That's purely speculation on my part, but even as such, I feel it might be too much. With the value of pitching these days, though, it might be something for the Yankees to look into.
The Mets also have some pieces they can deal for Santana. Aaron Heilman is no longer untouchable and could either play in Minnesota's bullpen or move to its starting rotation, where he has always wanted to play in New York. In addition to Heilman, Lastings Milledge and/or Carlos Gómez could be included in the deal to fill in at center field for Minnesota. I'm sure a prospect or two would have to be thrown in as well from the Mets' minor league system.
Others teams that haven't really been named but should also have an interest in Santana include the Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Los Angeles Dodgers. I doubt any of these clubs have the tools necessary to acquire Santana like the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets do. But if Santana is on the market, which it's widely assumed he is by now, I would have to believe they are all taking a gander into what they could fork over to acquire him.
The Twins just need to come to the final conclusion on what they want to do. If they're completely convinced Santana can no longer be a Twin because they can't afford to keep him, then clearly dealing him is the right decision to make. It would really hurt the organization to lose two stars in two straight seasons and get absolutely nothing in return for them. And with suitors available that have expendable pieces to trade for him, now is the right time make that move – even if it means sacrificing a potential playoff berth. Santana's value is just too high to risk messing around with.
Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com.
