MLB Fastball 12.07.07: Detroit Adds Willis, Cabrera To Stacked Lineup
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 12.07.2007
The Detroit Tigers are determined to appear in the World Series for the second time since 2006. With a trade for Johan Santana receiving all the hype, Detroit snuck in with the true first blockbuster of the offseason by acquiring both Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera for six prospects. In this week’s MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein examines this deal and the effects it will have on both the Tigers and the Marlins.
Detroit Bulking Up For Run At Playoff Return
Willis, Cabrera Added To Stacked Tigers Lineup For 2008
Photo Credit: Yahoo! Sports
Miguel Cabrera (left) and Dontrelle Willis (right) make the Tigers the early favorite to dominate the AL Central in 2008.
Just as we were left to believe the first blockbuster deal of the Major League Baseball offseason would involve Johan Santana, the Detroit Tigers and Florida Marlins decide to spoil the party. On Tuesday, the two teams completed a trade that sent 25-year old starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis and 24-year old third baseman/outfielder Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers in exchange for six prospects, left handed pitcher Andrew Miller and outfielder Cameron Maybin included.
While this trade continues the depletion of Detroit's farm system, which already lost outfielder Gorkys Hernandez and starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens in the trade for shortstop Édgar Rentería, it was almost as lopsided as many of the trades the Marlins made during their 2005-06 fire sale.
In one felt swoop, the Tigers picked up two of the hottest names on the trade market not named Santana. And in one felt swoop, the Tigers figured out a way to ensure they are the top contenders for the American League championship crown they attained just two seasons ago.
Both offensively and on the mound, Detroit is absolutely stacked. It has one of the strongest looking lineups in the league. Plus, the Marlins boast a starting rotation that has at least three pitchers capable of being aces.
The Tigers' starting staff could technically consist of six players, but there are five guarantees. Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Kenny Rogers and Willis will make up the starting rotation to start the 2008 season. Chad Durbin will probably head to the bullpen and be a spot starter. The order is probably a bit in the air right now, but I think it will shake out to this:
When compared to some of the other top starting rotations in the American League right now, Detroit has to be considered the best. The Boston Red Sox probably boasted the best AL starting rotation in 2007, but I'm not sure even they compare at this point with what the Tigers bring to the table. Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matzusaka, Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield/Clay Buchholz make a pretty dynamic combination and will be huge in the Red Sox' defense of the World Series title. If they manage to acquire Santana, then the Red Sox' starting rotation would be the best in the entire league, hands down. But right now, I'd rather run with what Detroit is offering after acquiring Willis.
Willis might be streaky at times, but he undoubtedly has the talent to be one of the best starting pitchers across the Majors. He had an off year in 2007 with a 10-15 record and 5.17 ERA. But in 2005, he pitched well enough to finish second in NL Cy Young voting, falling just behind Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals. He won 22 games that season, including five shutouts and seven complete contests.
On offense, the Marlins are absolutely ridiculous. Here is what their lineup looks like for the upcoming season:
1. Curtis Granderson
2. Plácido Polanco
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Magglio Ordóñez
5. Gary Sheffield
6. Carlos Guillén
7. Édgar Rentería
8. Iván Rodríguez
9. Brandon Inge/Marcus Thames/Jacques Jones
That lineup is insane. From top to bottom, no batter is easy and pitchers will have fits getting through the lineup. The No. 9 spot might belong solely to Jones by the start of the season, as there are rumors that the Tigers will try and move Inge and Thames, partially due to payroll concerns. Jones is still pretty damn good, though, for a No. 9 batter.
That payroll concern, however, is a legitimate one. The Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers' payroll going into the 2008 season could be around $130 million, which by the start of the season would probably place them third in the league behind only the Yankees and the Red Sox. There are some rumors out there that the Tigers might deal Willis to clear up some of their financial issues, but I highly doubt that's going to happen. Manager Jim Leyland noted that Willis' addition in the deal was a huge part in its completion. And I think Detroit is intent on keeping him around, no matter the cost. But that means the Tigers have become big spenders. And along with the other big spending teams in the American League, they are going to be favorites to compete in October.
Naturally, that doesn't always pan out. Things that look just too good on paper can fizzle as a season progresses. But the way the Tigers look, they could end up back in the World Series, where they appeared against the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006.
There isn't any real competition for them in the AL Central right now. The Minnesota Twins already let Torii Hunter walk, and Santana could be moved any day. With the two biggest names in their organization gone, not even Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are going to save the Twins. The defending AL Central champion Cleveland Indians have the ability to make things interesting, but I just don't think they stack up to this revamped Tigers squad. The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals both have quite a bit of work to do before they're ready to make a run at the AL Central crown. It might still be a bold statement in December, but the Tigers really have this division locked up already, pending injuries of course.
Once they make the playoffs, the popular opinion tends to be that pitching wins championships. We've established that the Tigers have pitching. Their starting rotation is superb. The bullpen is nothing to scoff at, either, with trusted veteran Todd Jones around to close out contests. Joel Zumaya will have been back on the Tigers' roster for a couple of months by that point. Fernando Rodney will likely see eighth inning duties until Zumaya returns, and then be relocated to seventh inning spots upon his return. Middle relief is a bit questionable at the moment, with guys like Francisco Cruceta, Jason Grilli and Bobby Seay currently holding spots on the roster. But there's still time for the Tigers to make some moves for bullpen help, and even those questionable relief arms could turn into some pretty clutch talent by the time the playoffs roll around.
I'm somewhat reluctant to automatically hand over the entire American League to this team like I am the AL Central, because anything can happen when October rolls around. But this latest trade really puts Detroit in a spot for World Series contention. The Tigers should have no problem making the playoffs, and will give all opposition a run for their money en route to a World Series appearance.
The Marlins, on the other hand, just continue a trend that's been with the team for years. Anytime they get big stars on the roster, the players will inevitably be dealt. This was the case for several players beforehand, like Gary Sheffield, Derrek Lee, Mike Lowell and Beckett.
Florida does, however, do a good job of getting good, young talent in return. And for as many times they conduct fire sales of their talent, the Marlins are never a team you want to just throw out of consideration for the NL East. As a team that's been in the league for only 14 years, yet won two World Series titles since 1997, the Marlins are an enigma. No matter how bad they look, they could just be a few years away from winning the biggest prize in baseball again.
The Marlins made the right decision to move these players, even if they didn't necessary make the best deal. The team wasn't going to keep Cabrera or Willis past the 2008 season and it would have been silly to lose them for nothing. Instead, the Tigers packaged the two and shipped them to Detroit for six prospects, including Maybin, who should see playing time in Florida's outfield, and Miller, who might just end up with a No. 4 or 5 spot in the Marlins' starting rotation this year. I still think the Tigers robbed Florida of Cabrera and Willis because I don't believe what they got in return was enough nor was it on par with what they probably could have received from other teams interested in the two players. But, Maybin and Miller do have the potential to work out.
Who knows? Maybe they could become fire sale pieces in the future.
Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com.
