MLB Fastball 12.28.07: Padres December Deals

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 12.28.2007

The San Diego Padres missed the playoffs by one game last season, and are looking to prevent that from happening in 2008. Transactions made for pitching and offense in the month of December alone have the Padres set to make a competitive run at the division crown in what is geared to be a tough NL West. In this edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein breaks down the Padres’ moves and discusses where they stand right now in the division.

The San Diego Padres had one of the most dominant pitching staffs in the entire MLB last season, and still missed the playoffs by one game in the National League Wild Card race behind the NL West rival Colorado Rockies. The Padres were also 1.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the NL West crown. With such skill on the mound, having a postseason appearance narrowly slip away is a disheartening turn of events for any organization. The Padres have been quite active over the last month to avoid such an occurrence from happing in 2008.

The month is not even complete yet, and the Padres have made four transactions that could very well keep them among the top teams in the division fighting for the NL West title. Signing Jake Peavy to a five-year contract extension; inking Randy Wolf, Mark Prior, Tadahito Iguchi off the free agent market; and trading for veteran center fielder Jim Edmonds will greatly improve the Padres' chances of returning to playoff action after their one-year absence in 2007.

On Dec. 12, the Padres re-signed Peavy, who was the 2007 NL Cy Young Award recipient and the NL's first Triple Crown winner since Randy Johnson of the Diamondbacks in 2002. Peavy, who posted 19 wins, a 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts last year, will remain with the Padres until at least 2012 with an annual average salary of $10.4 million, equaling $52 million over the course of the entire five-year contract. The club has a $22 million in 2013, when Peavy will still only be 32 years old.

The 27-year old has been a tremendous asset to the organization over the course of his career – especially over the last three years. Since 2005, Peavy as started at least 30 games and seen the mound for at least 203 innings. He has also had an average of 223 strikeouts over the least three seasons.

Peavy is without a doubt the biggest reason the Padres' pitching staff was one of the best in the Majors in 2007. San Diego had a league-leading team ERA of 3.70, as well as top five rankings in hits allowed (1,406), walks (474), WHIP (1.27) and saves (45.) The saves portion was thanks to the league's all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman.

Peavy is going to lead a very deep starting rotation once again in 2008.

His No. 2 man will be Chris Young, who posted a 3.12 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 30 starts. Young didn't grab an exciting win total with only nine victories, but he still did his part. The middle months were much kinder to Young, as he grabbed seven of his wins and allowed only 11 earned runs in May through July. However, his career has sparked since joining San Diego in 2006 and I think he can continue to improve and be more consistent over the course of a full season next year.

The No. 3 spot is going to belong to veteran Greg Maddux, who re-signed to a one-year deal on Nov. 19 for $10 million. Though he's 41 years old and will be 42 within the first two weeks of the start of the 2008 season, Maddux is still a solid arm in the middle of San Diego's rotation. He won 14 games last season, hitting the 20-year mark in his streak of posting double-digit totals in wins. In fact, he hasn't posted lower than 13 "Ws" since he went 6-14 in his sophomore season with the Chicago Cubs in 1987.

The No. 4 role should be Wolf's, who signed a one-year deal with the Padres on Dec. 10. Wolf is definitely not a front-end of the rotation talent. But on the backend, the left-handed veteran is a really nice option for the Padres' rotation. I would have thought Wolf would have returned to Philadelphia after spending one somewhat productive year in Los Angeles with the Dodgers even if limited to only 18 games due to injury. But in San Diego, he can stay in the NL West on a competitive team in the division with a role that doesn't carry a ton of pressure. If he can bring 10 wins, which would be a first for him since a 16-win season in 2003 with the Phillies, then this signing will be an automatic success.

In mid-to-late May, the No. 5 spot on the rotation will go to Prior, who signed a one-year, $1 million deal with the Padres on Wednesday. Prior, who is still recovering from a shoulder injury that kept him out the entire 2007 season, will try to reverse his injury-riddled career with a change of scenery. After being drafted in the first round, second overall, by the Cubs in 2001, the 27-year old righty was supposed to have quite a career in Chicago. But injuries derailed that plan, and now Prior just needs to prove he can remain at least mildly healthy for five minutes rather than show he's capable of being a 20-win star. It's unfortunate that his career has been so injury-filled. But his appeal in Chicago has worn off, and a small investment by the Padres might pay off if Prior can get a good four months worth of starts in when he returns.

If Prior doesn't work out, which I doubt he will, only $1 million was wasted and the Padres will be guaranteed to be off the books for the potential $4.5 million in performance bonuses included in his contract. Plus, other starting pitchers will have the option to fill in the No. 5 spot – pitchers that will see some time to start the season until Prior returns. Those fill-ins will include Clay Hensley, Justin Germano, and two veterans signed to minor league contracts on Dec. 14 – Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch.

The starting rotation will have a complimentary bullpen led by the likes of Hoffman, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell and Wilfredo Ledezma – combining for a very formidable pitching staff from the start of the game to the end. With this kind of talent, the Padres should once again rank among the top in the league in pitching.

Offense is where the Padres struggled a bit last season, and that side of the ball should see some, though not drastic, improvement in 2008.

In 2007, the Padres were 28th in the league with a team .251 batting average. They also weren't very deep in talent.

Adrian Gonzalez was their star for the second year in a row, putting up 30 home runs, 100 RBIs, 101 runs and a .282 batting average. Despite a low batting average, Khalil Greene had a decent year with 27 long balls, 97 RBIs, 44 doubles and 89 runs scored. Milton Bradley even made a decent impact in the 44 games he suited up for, hitting 11 home runs with a .313 batting average.

The rest of the team really lacked in production at the plate, though. And it's a shame that such a good pitching staff couldn't rely on an offense better than one ranking 18th in run production with a total of 741 scores on the season.

To aid in this little dilemma, the Padres will benefit from the editions of Edmonds and Iguchi. Besides being upgrades in the field from the team's previous players at center and second base – Mike Cameron and Marcus Giles, respectively, they have quite a bit of ability in their bats, as well.

Edmonds was brought in by the Padres after a deal with Cameron, who will miss the first 25 games of the season thanks to failing a drug test, broke off. Edmonds, who is from Fullerton, CA, spent the past eight seasons in St. Louis with the Cardinals, and was dealt from them to the Padres for third baseman David Freese and cash. Edmonds' offensive prowess has significantly diminished and the man's ability to hit over 40 home runs and bat over .300 is long gone. However, I don't think it's impossible for him to get back to the 25-30 mark in long balls. And even if he can get back to .275 status, I think Edmonds, 37, can be a big addition to this ball club.

Iguchi, brought in on Dec. 18, is going to be a big addition to the Padres' lineup. He definitely has more to offer on both the field and at the plate than Giles, and he can also come up with some big hits late in games. Though his numbers aren't phenomenal, they're pretty good considering he won't be the main source of production on the team. If he can hit 17-18 home runs, 65 RBIs, 25 doubles, 75-80 runs and a .280 batting average, Iguchi is doing his job. And it's likely he will reach those numbers.

Now, Edmonds and Iguchi do not all of a sudden make the Padres an offensive juggernaut. San Diego will still have some struggles ahead of them in games where there are high runs totals. However, they're better than they were before and should have more plate production to go along with the pitching staff's strong performances.

Where will these moves put the Padres in 2008? Well, the NL West will once again be a competitive division. The San Francisco Giants will probably be the one weak team in the division. But the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Dodgers will be solid going into the season.

The Diamondbacks will have a rough time defending their crown. If Johnson returns to the starting rotation, Arizona will have the most lethal 1-2-3 punch around the league. However, no matter what Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Johnson offer, there isn't a great deal of offense in Arizona behind Chris B. Young and Eric Byrnes. The Diamondbacks scored even less runs than the Padres did last year. I think the Diamondbacks will field a competitive team once again. But I can't see them repeating as division champs.

The Rockies were a surprise team last season and put on quite a performance down the stretch to actually make the playoffs. It seemed as if they couldn't lose. However, I think the Rockies really need to invest come more into their starting rotation. And while key offensive pieces remain with Colorado, remaining where they are in pitching will hurt Colorado. They won't be out of it, but a division crown is out of the question, in my opinion. And a repeat as NL Wild Card champs is going to be rough, if not unlikely.

The Dodgers have new management, a new star, and a starting rotation that could be productive if Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt and Derek Lowe can remain healthy. I'm not a huge fan of Los Angeles' bullpen, but the starting pitching has the potential to make the Dodgers a decent pitching squad. On offense, Andruw Jones will be a big boost to go with the already important bats like Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciappara and Jeff Kent. The Dodgers really sit as that team that has the tools to win the division and probably should be the favorites. But you just know players are going to struggle, injuries will hit important players and the team will have a rough time pulling it all together. Maybe Torre can fix that and keep the team on track. But I think Los Angeles will run into trouble somewhere.

Compared to these three teams, the Padres have a good chance, though I'm not going to pick them as the NL West favorites. I'm going to call the Dodgers winning the division, though I can't say my stomach doesn't wrench a little bit when I make that call. It's not coming with all confidence. I think the Padres will, however, take the second place spot in the NL West, followed by Arizona, Colorado and San Francisco. Now, I think the Wild Card will go to the second place team in the NL East. But pending the No. 2 spot in the West is once again good enough for the Wild Card spot, that would go to the Padres based on my prediction.

In order for the Padres to become the favorites, I think it's going to take more offense. Everybody follows the pitching wins mantra. However, pitching alone cannot get it done. And until this team can pop in a power bat and smart, disciplined player into their lineup, pitching isn't going to be enough in what has suddenly become a competitive NL West division over the past few years.

The Padres have started an upgrading process to their organization. But it shouldn't stop there, as I still don't believe they have what it takes to take the division and guarantee themselves a spot in the 2008 playoffs.

Feedback

Neil,

Was just reading your thoughts on the Haren deal and I have a huge problem with this:

"Oakland didn't really get anything amazing in return. They got some nice young players who I'm sure the Athletics will turn into decent talent and then either trade away or allow to walk via free agency once they make too much money for general manager Billy Beane to deem acceptable, which is probably like $5 million at this point."

I won't even comment on the silliness of the second half of that except to say that letting overpriced players walk in favor of cheaper talent is excellent business - and generally smart from a baseball standpoint, too.

But the first part of that is just unacceptable, man. Did you even look at the players the A's got in return? Kevin Goldstein at bbpro has four of the guys in the deal now in the A's top 11 prospects. A fifth is ranked 13th, and the sixth is Dana Eveland, who isn't really a prospect at this point. This deal is, by far, better than any of the proposed deals that teams were offering for Johan Santana. The A's have completely revamped their organization with a handful of top-notch players. This haul is the very definition of "get[ing] anything amazing."

Have a good one,
~ JD

Thanks for the e-mail, JD.

For the first part of your comment … you did kind of comment on it, now didn't you? Billy Beane's strategy has its advantages, sure? However, there does come a point where letting go of literally all your stars players is highly ineffective. Cheaper talent is great for business, i.e. the bottom line. But for winning championships, it's not always the greatest tool. And for just as much as high salaries are hurting the game, not realizing that sometimes players do need to be paid will hurt a team. And I think finishing 18 games back in the AL West last year somewhat signifies that. So while my comment might have been silly, it's not completely inaccurate. Any "star" this team brought in via the Haren deal will inevitably be dealt off in a few years once they can make more money than Beane deems acceptable, which by now probably isn't even all that much.

As far as the second point in your comment is concerned, I don't see anything amazing. I think they got nice players, mostly prospects, that could become decent talent for the A's in the coming years. One player in particular – Carlos Gonzalez, came in with quite a bit of hype. But just because one dude reworks the prospect order in the Athletics' organization, I'm not going to deem this thing a blockbuster. Out of all these players, Haren was the biggest chip and he went the other way. Can the prospects Oakland received become big stars? Perhaps. Is it shocking that Oakland even received six player for Haren in the first place? Probably. But there's nothing "amazing" in there. And to call it better than any of the Johan Santana offerings – now that's silly! I'd take Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and any mid-tier starter in the Yankees' system any day of the week over what Oakland got for Haren.

Thanks again for the e-mail, JD, and everybody keep it coming!

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Until next time!

~ Neil Borenstein