MLB Fastball 1.05.08: Remaining Starters In Free Agency

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 01.05.2008

Teams interested in ace quality pitching need to look at the trade market. But for teams that need good No. 3-5 options, the free agent market is still an option. In this edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein looks at some of the top remaining starting pitchers on the Major League Baseball free agent market!

The 2007-08 Hot Stove League is starting to die down in Major League Baseball, especially with the heightened attention being paid to steroids. Most of the big-name players are off the market, and any team looking for that big splash will probably have to do so in the trade market. Players like Johan Santana from Minnesota and Joe Blanton from Oakland are still available via that avenue.

However, for teams that don't necessarily need that huge addition and don't want to give up any valuable talent to fill some holes, the free agent market is still an option. A lot of decent talent remains available for the taking. No position is more plentiful than that of starting pitching.

For teams in dire need of an ace, the trade market is the only place to go. No. 3-5 quality starters exist in free agency, though, with the possibility that some players could even become No. 2s over the course of a season if they exceed expectations.

Photo Credit: washingtonpost.com

Bartolo Colón: At a point in his career, Bartolo Colón was an ace-quality pitcher. He won the 2005 AL Cy Young Award and appeared in two All Star Games (1998 and 2005.) But those days of being a potential 20-win threat are long gone thanks to injury and age. Both 2006 and 2007 were not kind to Colón mainly because of shoulder and arm injuries. He pitched 29 total games over the two-year span, winning only seven games and losing 13 in the process. His ERA in 2006 was 5.11 and 6.34 in 2007. All of this indicates that Colón is not going to make a lot of money on this market, and probably will not receive a long-term deal either.

But there are going to be teams willing to give Colón a chance. Since Colón will likely never be 100 percent, to expect his pitching arsenal to remain top notch would not be logical. However, when healthy, he had some of the top "stuff" in the league. Even at a decreased level, he can help a team in the middle of the rotation.

Colón should expect nothing more than a one-year contract, perhaps with a team option for 2009. But since this is an opportunity for him to prove he can remain healthy and help a team win ball games, that's probably the best scenario for him anyway. Plus, at 34 years old, he shouldn't expect anything too long-term anyway.

Teams rumored to be in the mix for Colón are the New York Mets and the Texas Rangers. With the Mets, Colón would start as the No. 4 option behind Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez. With Texas, he would end up as the No. 5, though I'm sure he can move up in the rotation if he performs well enough.

Colón is the most high-risk, high-reward pitcher left on the market. If he's healthy and can provide in the 12-win range, he's going to be a worthy investment, as I can't see him signing for anything over $6 million a season. If he continues his poor conditioning regiment and has another unhealthy season, then he's a bust no matter what he signs for. Somebody should give him a shot, though. Put the ball in his hands and let him prove himself.

Photo Credit: flickr.com

Freddy García: Freddy García has always been one of my favorite pitchers in the MLB, and nothing would make me happier than to see him wearing pinstripes in 2008. However, García needs to prove he can still be a team's No. 2 or 3 starter after an injury-riddled 2007.

Last season, he only managed to play 11 games, and walked away with a 1-5 record and 5.90 ERA with the Philadelphia Phillies. A shoulder injury significantly hurt his playing time and his ability to perform at a top level. The one win he did land is now referred to as the $10 million win.

His situation is only made worse by the fact that his shoulder injury from 2007 will have him miss significant time in 2008, as well. He's projected to be ready for a return in June as he continues to rehab from surgery. The injury could continue to nag him throughout the entire 2008 season, which is probably a big reason behind many teams' reluctance to pursue García.

However, if García is able to come back healthy by June, he will be a real asset to the team that does sign him. García is a workhorse who can get in his innings. He's also proven to be a winner. He has won 17 or more games three times in his career, including an 18-win season in 2001 with the Seattle Mariners. Outside of last year and his sophomore campaign with Seattle in 2000, García has not won less than 12 games in a season.

So while there is a chance that his shoulder can cause more problems upon his return, his ability to go full-force on the mound and win ball games has to give him some credibility when it comes to earning a contract. With injuries considered, he will probably land a one-year deal with a club option, though I think he's more than worthy of a three-year deal worth $8 million a season.

The Mets are believed to be interested in García, much as they were at the time he was dealt to the Phillies during the 2006-07 offseason. He would probably roll in at the No. 4 spot when he returns from his injury, with the probable situation occurring that he would surpass Perez for the No. 3 spot at some point during the season.

Photo Credit: flickr.com

Liván Hernández: Liván Hernández is one pitcher I'm extremely surprised is still on the market. Thought not the same pitcher he was with the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, he's still a great option for the No. 3 or 4 spot in any starting rotation.

The best thing about Hernández is that he is an innings eater. In a full slate of games, he will pitch over 200 innings, most likely over 230 even. Because of that, he is a threat to score complete games, of which he has 43 of in his career. He also hasn't scored less than 11 wins in a season since 1999, when he split time between the Florida Marlins and San Francisco Giants and posted an 8-12 record in 30 games.

Right now, he's going to be viewed as a backend pitcher, meaning he's probably slated for no better than No. 4 spot work for interested teams. As you could have guessed, one of the rumored teams with interest is the Mets – go figure. If other pitchers don't pan out for the Mets, I think popping Hernández in at the No. 4 spot would be an incredible addition to their sub par starting rotation.

At 33 years old and still healing from a 2005 knee surgery, he's not going to be that top-notch performer he was during his San Francisco to Washington days. But even in a decreased capacity, I think Hernández can still put up 10-12 wins, go for 200-210 innings and do it with a low-four ERA. That should earn him at least a two-year, maybe even a three-year, deal.

Photo Credit: photobucket.com

Jon Lieber: At 37 years old (soon to be 38), I'm not sure putting too much of a commitment into Jon Lieber is a wise idea. This is especially after having his 2007 cut short due to an ankle injury, limiting him to 14 games played and a 3-6 record. But on a one-year deal with minimal money, Lieber can be a good backend option for a Major League team still in need of a No. 5 starter (or if they're desperate, a No. 4.)

Lieber was a 17-game winner just two seasons ago with the Philadelphia Phillies, just one year after going 14-8 with the New York Yankees in 2004. Hell, the man was even a 20-game winner as a member of the Chicago Cubs in 2001. Over the past six years, Lieber has shown that he can win ball games. He is not the most dynamic pitcher around, but he's a reliable starter that can win. And that's important.

Turning 38 years old shortly after Opening Day works just as much against him as his injury last season. However, for a short-term, one-year fix by a team in the MLB, Lieber has the experience and ability to hold up the backend of the rotation with what should be at least 10 wins and a mid-four ERA throughout 2008. That's pending he remains healthy, of course.

Naturally, the Mets have an interest in Lieber's services and I have no doubt that he would end up as the No. 5 in New York. I think the Phillies should leave the door open on the possibility of bringing Lieber back, as well. His tenure in Philadelphia wasn't all that bad since 2005. He'll come cheap and can be a nice veteran presence in the clubhouse. Plus, he'll make a nice bullpen option and spot starter – especially when Philadelphia realizes Adam Eaton really is worthless.

Photo Credit: flickr.com

Kris Benson: Kris Benson is yet another pitcher still roaming free agency thanks to injury concerns. Benson even had to hold a tryout in front of team scouts to prove that he recovered from surgery on a partially torn rotator cuff that forced him to miss the entire 2007 season with the Baltimore Orioles.

Benson hasn't exactly panned out to be the pitcher many thought he would be when he was selected first overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1996. And at 33 years old, coming off that surgery, it's highly unlikely he's going to ever get close. In fact, he might even get worse, as his velocity and mechanics are all going to take a setback from going forward.

But as a 10-game winner five out of seven seasons in the league, he has some value in a Major League rotation. Teams that really need a backend starter would have been foolish to pass up an opportunity to check him out at his workout, as it was an opportunity to really gauge just how much that injury would be an obstacle in 2008, if it's going to be at all.

Benson is only seeking a one-year deal, but he does want a guaranteed spot in the starting rotation. He assures that he will be ready Opening Day, which is a better scenario than guys like García and San Diego's newest addition, Mark Prior. If he is willing to sign extremely cheap, something in the $3-4.5 million range, I don't think he'll have a problem finding a home. He may not get the calls for another month or so, but somebody will give him a chance. He just has to understand, that like many of the pitchers remaining on the market, there is some hesitance in teams on taking risks on injured players. But I don't think there's anything else Benson can do outside of what he's done already. He reached out to teams. He just needs to wait for them to reach back.

The others:

Jeff Weaver: I want to think that Jeff Weaver still has some value in the MLB, but I'm not so sure anymore. I think he's just banking on experience and one really good postseason appearance with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006. Outside of that, he gives up a lot of runs and will most likely post more losses than wins over the course of season. That might be okay if he could produce at least 10 wins, guaranteed. But that's not necessarily in the bag. For a team to take a chance on him, it would have to be through a minor league deal, and it would obviously at that point have to be really cheap. If he can prove himself and earn a spot, I say give him the No. 5 role and hope for the best. But otherwise, teams might be better suited taking a chance on one of the other options remaining if they need a backend starter, as I don't think Weaver is ever going to be as good as he really could be.

Josh Fogg: Josh Fogg needs to ride that 2007 World Series appearance with the Colorado Rockies for all he can, as he could very easily sign a three-year deal at decent money because of it. That's not to say he realistically deserves a contract of that nature, it's just that teams have very short-term memories and hand out deals based on the most recent accomplishment of a player. Fogg is probably more of a No. 4 option on a good team, maybe a No. 3 on a team really searching for starters.

Feedback …

Doesn't the fact the A's finished 18 games out prove Haren wasn't worth the money to them? They'd have to rebuild to make anything happen playoff-wise anyway, so why not? I don't think they got the best deal, but a championship wasn't in the cards this year anyway so why eat that huge salary? It might be worth it to sell tickets if it was an everyday player, but for a dude hitting the field 1 in 5 days (much longer stretches if you're just looking at home games for ticket sales) there's no reason to spend that cash because there's no (revenue or championship) return.

~ Bahb

Bahb, Haren isn't even making all that much money. He'll earn $4 million next season, $5.5 million in 2009 and there's a club option in his contract for $6.75 million in 2010. How is that a "huge salary"? For a 15-game winner from last season who was very much in the Cy Young race for a good portion of the season, that's a freakin' steal! Nick Swisher was also just recently dealt by the Athletics to the Chicago White Sox, and he's not making a helluva lot of money until 2011 (he'll earn $9 million that season.) I mean, just how much money is too much? Are you honestly trying to say that $4 million is too much to pay a guy like Haren, who might be over-hyped as an ace but is still a more than formidable No. 2 in any Major League rotation?

I have no problem with rebuilding, but only when a team is really down in the dumps and has no other choice. All Oakland ever does under Billy Beane is rebuild, and it's not because they have to. It's because Beane has a fetish with taking all of the talent the team has and trading it away, making it all sound okay because they're getting a good deal of prospects in return. Well, I'm sorry, but prospects don't mean anything when just a few years later, they'll inevitably get dealt off too. And in the process, a very valuable and cheap arm in Haren was dealt away simply because this is what Beane does. I mean honestly, this is all Oakland does is rebuild. They're in constant rebuilding mode. When is the rebuilding going to stop and the push for a World Series going to start?

Beane has already stated the 2008 season is a loss for Oakland, and that they'll really be in a state of mediocrity over the course of the season. What a fantastic message to send to the remaining A's fans. Pay all your hard earned money to us to see absolutely no stars on our roster and to watch us lose miserably while we wait to be good in a year or two. Cut me a break.

Everybody wants to consider Billy Beane some sort of genius because he keeps payroll down, but this team will never, EVER win a World Series under him. He will just continue to sell off big names for prospects, who will be dealt off themselves in three or four years once their worth something to other teams. It's a never-ending cycle.

I mean, is this not the same thing we continually blast the Florida Marlins for? At least they won two World Series titles since entering the league in 1993. Why does Beane get a free pass when he hasn't delivered a championship to an organization that hasn't seen one since 1989?

At some point, rebuilding needs to stop, money needs to be spent and fans need to stop being lied to. Beane is not that special, and he has no idea how to put together a championship organization. All he knows how to do is save ownership money. And wow, isn't that what we all want in the end!

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Until next time!

~ Neil Borenstein