MLB Fastball 2.09.08: Trades Signal Another Disappointing Season In Baltimore

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 02.09.2008

The Baltimore Orioles are dealing off some of their best stars this offseason, starting with Miguel Tejada, followed by Erik Bedard and perhaps finishing with Brian Roberts in the not-too-distant future. The team is entering rebuilding mode, 10 years after their last postseason appearance. In this edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein discusses the impact trading their three stars will have on the Orioles in 2008.

Orioles Rebuilding ProjectOffseason Moves Spell Another Losing Season For Baltimore

Photo Credit: Flickr.comErik Bedard is on his way to the Seattle Mariners.

Miguel Tejada is gone. Erik Bedard's deal is finally completed. And Brian Roberts might be the next in line leaving Baltimore. It's going to be another long year for the Orioles and their fans in 2008.

Postseason play has been absent in Baltimore since 1997, when the Orioles won the American League East but lost in the ALCS to the Cleveland Indians. Since then, the Orioles have failed to have a .500 season and have finished fourth in the AL East in all but the 2004 season, when they were third. Granted, it's rough playing in a division dominated by the New York Yankees with strong competition from the Boston Red Sox. But 10 straight seasons of losing ball is tough to swallow.

Recent transactions and ones still on the table do not make things any easier for Orioles fans hoping to see another playoff berth from their organization in this lifetime.

The trading of Tejada was a long time coming. His play had decreased slightly over recent years after as a result of wanting out of Balitmore, who he deemed resistant to bringing in the supporting pieces that could get the Orioles back to the playoffs. He was dealt to Houston for relatively little in return, but the move was meant as a way of getting a disgruntled Tejada off the roster and off the team's payroll. From that standpoint, it was completely understandable.

Bedard's deal is a little harder to comprehend since the Orioles are trading away ace quality pitching. Since there was a sense of tension building between the club and Bedard, however, based on failed contract negotiations, putting him on the trade block wasn't the worst idea in the world. And though I think the Orioles probably could have gotten more than what they will receive from the Seattle Mariners, they could have done worse, too.

In exchange for Bedard, Seattle will send outfielder Adam Jones, left-handed reliever George Sherrill and pitchers Chris Tillman (Baseball America's No. 3 prospect of the Mariners), Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio.

Sherrill is a player that can make an immediate impact in the Orioles' bullpen as a decent mid-relief option. Last year, he had a 2.36 ERA in 73 games. Tillman is also an intriguing addition as one of the top pitchers in the Mariners' system.

But Jones, 22, is the key to this trade for Baltimore. He has yet to really establish himself at the Major League level, which any loyal MLB Fastball reader will know doesn't thrill me when it comes to trading ace quality pitching. However, he has suited up for 73 total games in 2006 and 2007 and there's wide belief that he has the potential to grow into a big outfielder with some growth and proper tutelage. Of course, the latter might be a little difficult to get in Baltimore, but I digress. Jones has pretty much exhausted his value in Triple-A ball and is ready to step up full time in the pros. Last season, he was a Pacific League All-Star. He posted a .314 batting average with 75 runs, 84 RBIs, 27 doubles, six triples and 25 home runs in 110 games and 420 at-bats. He has the ability to be a strong defensive presence, as well as a good power bat at the plate. He does need to work on his discipline while on the bases to be a truly threatening runner, but his speed is impressive.

Regardless of how good he can be, though, the Orioles will not feel Jones' impact immediately like they will the loss of Bedard.

Adding fuel to the Orioles' mini fire sale is speculation that Roberts could possibly be on the move, as well. There are rumors that Andy MacPhail is working with the Chicago Cubs in a potential deal to unload Roberts. The depth of those negotiations is not known. But it's hard to believe that a team in rebuilding mode wouldn't trade off its only All Star from last season if it meant bringing in a package of prospects.

A commitment to rebuilding is important for the Orioles at this stage in the game. Ten consecutive years of playoff-less ball, in which the team finished above fourth place only once, is pretty abysmal to say the least. It just means that Baltimore will endure a minimum of two or three more seasons wasting away in the basement of the American League. In fact, the Orioles are destined to finish this season as the dead last team in the AL East, taking the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' normal position in the division.

The starting rotation is extraordinarily slim. With Bedard officially a Mariner, there is no ace quality pitching in Baltimore. Speculation is that Adam Loewen or Jeremy Guthrie will be in line for the spot, with Daniel Cabrera a distant option in the race. I think Cabrera will land the job, only because he has the experience over the others. He recently re-signed with the team for one year at $2.875 million, avoiding arbitration. Expected to join Cabrera, Loewen and Guthrie is Troy Patton. Matt Albers may stand a shot at grabbing that final spot in the rotation, but I'm sure it's very much up for grabs in spring training. However the rotation turns out, though, it's nothing to get too excited over.

Photo Credit: nydailynews.comWith Bedard traded, Daniel Cabrera is in the running to become Baltimore's new ace.

Cabrera has the arsenal to be a high-level pitcher in the MLB, but his inconsistency is what holds him back. He can be all over the place at times. And serving as the ace of the Orioles going into 2008, Cabrera is coming off a 9-18 season where he walked an MLB-leading 108 batters and posted a 5.55 ERA. It is highly questionable whether Cabrera can adjust himself to be a solid No. 1. To do that, he is definitely going to need to bring down his runs per game to no more than three and post at least 15 wins to be effective. That's just not going to happen. I like Cabrera, but he's really no more than a No. 3 option right now.

Loewen is a question mark, too. The man definitely has talent. Otherwise he would not have been a fourth overall pick by the Orioles in 2004. But can he stay healthy? And when he's healthy, will he live up to the hype? He is coming off an elbow surgery that ended his 2007 season with only six appearances. Adjusting to that can be pretty difficult and it's not even certain right now if Loewen is going to be able to hang in the Majors the entire season. Like Cabrera, Loewen has the stuff of a top-rotation starter, and might grow into an ace if he can stay healthy. But nothing is for certain, and that's not something a team already slim on talent needs to have – uncertainty.

Guthrie had an okay year with the Orioles, but definitely nothing to go crazy over. It was really the first experience he had staying in the big leagues, and he did land seven wins with a 3.70 ERA. The potential is there for him to be higher-up in a Major League rotation, but I wouldn't place him any higher than the No. 3 slot right now. As a former first round pick coming into only his second season of real work, he could surprise some people with maybe a 10- to 12-win season. But I wouldn't hold my breath, as there's probably just as much of a chance Guthrie will end up in the bullpen or down in the minors at some point this season.

Much like the rest of this rotation, Patton is an injury risk that has yet to prove himself in the pros. Granted, Patton has only seen three games in the Majors, so he's very much running on hype. And that hype is that he's a mid-rotation guy. I think the final starter will be another player brought in from the Tejada trade, Albers, who is more of a bullpen arm than a starter and will likely be horrendous in the rotation even if he goes into the season as the No. 5.

Essentially, if all these starters met their hype and stayed healthy, this would be an impressive rotation. But alas, we all know better, and this thing is much more than a work in progress – it needs an injection of talent to lead the charge.

There isn't even a light at the end of the tunnel for the Orioles in the bullpen. Chris Ray is rehabbing from Tommy Johns Surgery and will miss most, if not all, of the 2008 season. Danys Baez is pretty much a guarantee to miss the entire 2008 season thanks to the same surgery. That leaves Baltimore with relief led by Chad Bradford, Greg Aquino and Sherrill. All of these players are mid-relief arms. None of them are qualified for late-relief duties.

Outside a questionable starting rotation and a deplorable bullpen is an offense that can't support its pitchers in the first place.

If Roberts is dealt, the offensive player in Baltimore immediately becomes Nick Markakis, if he isn't considered the top bat already. Markakis had a solid 2007 season, hitting .300 with 97 runs, 112 RBIs, 43 doubles, three triples and 23 home runs. He also stole 18 bases. Markakis is an All-Star quality player that will only get better as he gets more years under his belt.

Past Markakis, though, is a bunch of players that aren't going to do much around him. Melvin Mora's days of grabbing 27 homers, 104 RBIs and 111 runs with a .340 batting average like he did in 2004 are gone. That's not going to happen again. He can still probably grab 20 home runs and hit .275-.279 at the plate. Jay Gibbons is recovering from a torn labrum, Ramon Hernandez who is coming off a very down year, Aubrey Huff who is returning from a sports hernia injury and Jay Payton is good, but can't help carry a team.

Markakis is really the only firepower this team has. For this offense to work, the Orioles would need top quality pitching to keep scores low. And as we've already established, that kind of pitching isn't present in Baltimore.

Of course, as a team that's rebuilding, being competitive is not a priority. And honestly, kudos to the Orioles for finally realizing they need to rebuild. With that, the maturity of young talent is the ultimate goal. And in players like Markakis, Jones and Tillman, that's hopefully what the Orioles would get. But this roster only means that Baltimore and its fans, who have received nothing to cheer about over the past 10 seasons already, are in store for another two or three at the very least of highly disappointing baseball. To make matters worse, this very well could the year they un-seed the Tampa Bay Devil Rays as the worst squad in the entire AL East.

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Until next time!

~ Neil Borenstein