Chutes and Ladders 3.10.08: Preseason Look at the East

Posted by Ken Schmidt on 03.10.2008

Chutes and Ladders is back as the Sports Kid brings you his views on who were the climbers and fallers in the N.L. and A.L. East this week.

Welcome back to the first edition of Chutes and Ladders of the 2008 season, for anyone who is new to 411 this is the best and most opinionated column offered. Either way I took want to beat around the bush to long because I have a lot to cover and just three weeks to do so. That is going to give me three chapters to break the preseason into and we will start on my coast, the East with breakdowns of those who climbed and those who plummeted in the off-season.

N.L. East

Climbing the Ladders


Phillies

The defending champs have taken steps in the right directions this off-season. The offense has improved, and some may argue that losing Aaron Rowand hurts the lineup, but overall it isn't a horrible move. Rowand is getting paid way to much money for a hard-nosed player who had an exceptional year. Shane Victorino should finish the year with around the same average as Rowand this year and Geoff Jenkins won't hurt either.

The real great thing the Phils did for the lineup was adding Pedro Feliz to fill the gapping hole at third base. Last year the Phillies did not have an everyday third baseman and with Feliz coming to a true hitter's ball park expect some of his 25+ doubles the past four years to turn into less doubles 25+ home runs. Than there is the fact Carlos Ruiz is a year older will be a huge help as well. There is no doubt the Phillies have the best lineup in the N.L. East and in my opinion it is the best in the National League. The best player on the team isn't one of the MVPs from the past two years, it is Chase Utley who will hit about .310, to go along with Ryan Howard's 50+ home runs and Jimmy Rollins abilty to fill a stat sheet with power and speed.

Than there is the pitching, which has improved in the off-season, though still an issue. The pickup of Brad Lidge helped the team by giving them a real closer and not just a talented pitcher for the 9th inning. It takes more than just talent to be a closer and Lidge has shown he can get it done in the past and hopefully he has recovered mentally from the St. Louis playoff fiasco.

With Lidge the Phillies now have an ace of the staff and an ace of the staff-B in Myers/Hamels, which is better than most 1-2 punches in MLB rotations. The problem is the Phils do not have 1-5 pitchers. Ace is a check, number 2 is check, and number 3 starter isn't bad with young Kyle Kendrick returning for his first full season. The problem is Jamie Moyer is 80 years old and the 5th starting spot is up in the air between a few guys with ERAs in the 6s. This could be the Phillies downfall in the long run but as of right now I have them repeating as N.L. East champions.

(That Phillies paragraph was 411 words long, not intentional but I take that as a sign)


Mets

The Mets really have not improved enough in the off-season even with the addition of stud lefty Johan Santana. Sure Johan should kill Ryan Howard and add 17 or 18 wins to the rotation but that isn't enough, one player can't save the team from the fate of last year. The bullpen is still very weak in the middle, I still don't see a name on there I trust to get from Santana to Wagner. Joe Smith fell off last season and I still don't see and 8th inning guy.

The lineup got worse in the offseason as well. Carlos Delgado is banged up and his career might be in jeopardy. Now tell me if I am supposed to be afraid of a team starting Marlon Anderson at first base. Marlon Anderson is a joke, and unless the Mets make a move that kills the intimidation of the lineup. With Delgado out, the Mets still have a solid 1-4, with Reyes, Castillo, Beltran, Wright but after that they are dead. Alou won't play 100 games this season and Endy Chavez will battle to hit his own weight, I don't think he has a prayer of repeating his .287 of last season.

Ryan Church career .270 hitter, which isn't bad if you are going to bat him 6th or 7th but right now he is looking like the five-hole and I don't see David Wright getting much to hit with Church behind him. The line-up has weakened enough that the Phillies and Braves should be picked up 3-2, 4-3 wins over the Mets all season long and leave the Mets out of the playoffs again, even though they took some steps in the right direction in the offseason.


Braves

The thing that scares me the most about the Braves is that no one is talking about them. Even with the addition of Johan and Lidge coming to the N.L. East the Braves still have the best rotation 1-5 with Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, Hampton, and James. The Braves rotation is the best all full staff in my mind but the thing that no one can argue is that the Braves have the best bullpen of the three top teams in the N.L. East.

What the Braves need to push them over the top is the offense to improve exponentially from 2007. Teixeira playing his first full season in the cleanup spot for the Braves is a good thing but he needs to be able to slug the full season and come up with a solid batting average with 100+ RBIs. That is going to be easier said than done when you have the unknowns hitting above him.

Unknown number one is Yunel Escobar. Sure he hit .326 in his rookie season but how is he going to do when the Braves put him in the spotlight and make him the leadoff hitter? Shortstop is also a tough position so we are still yet to see if the rookies body can handle 140 games this season. My guess is Yunel won't hit above .300 but he still will be a solid starter but he has big shoes to fill with the past 2 Braves shortstops being Furcal and Renteria.

Unknown number two is Chipper Jones. We know he will hit when he plays but the guy just misses so much time. Last year he played in 139 games which is his best in four years. Chipper's body is breaking down in his old age but if he can get his games played up to 140 this year than the Braves will be in good shape, but they will be dead if he ends up playing 100-110 this year.

With Andruw Jones gone the young players are going to have to spotlight for the Braves this year. Not to say Francouer and McCann aren't up to it but Mark Kotsay in centerfield is a downgrade that will have to be addressed. Either way I like the Braves this year more than most people are talking about.

Falling Down the Chutes


Marlins

What can you say about the Marlins? The team is to broke to keep there good young talent and they keep dealing established players for the next generation of up and coming players before they have to ship them again.

Dallas McPherson was a guy I expected to do big things in the Majors but he has been silent thus far. His below .250 batting average has kept him out of the majors but now he has a chance in Florida. I haven't given up on him yet but he isn't on the same planet as Miguel Cabrera so even with a career year from the young man on the hot corner won't be enough to fill the gapping hole in the lineup.

Who will be the next big name in Florida? My guess is Maybin, the young centerfielder, but I still am not scared of a single player in this lineup not named Hanley. This is going to be a long year for Marlins fans which is nothing new to them.

The pitching staff ace is Scott Olsen, the only bright spot this year could be Segrio Mitre but I wouldn't bank on it. This rotation will be lucky to have an ERA under 5.00 for the season and the bullpen can't be relied on to keep any leads they might get miraculously. This is going to be ugly.


Nationals

Another team that may never be good is the Washington Nationals. They seem to be the landfill for players other teams don't want. Lastings Milledge never turned out to be what the Mets hoped, to think at one point he was untouchable and now he got delt for Ryan Church. Willy Mo Pena has been decent at some times but he has bounced around so much he has become obscure by the moment. Dmitri Young will battle diabetes and conditioning all season so he most likely won't repeat his All-Star season.

The Nationals sure did get themselves enough catchers in the off-season. Their depth chart right now has 5 catchers listed, so that position is in good shape. To bad they didn't take more time to fill the other 8 positions. Paul Lo Duca was great at moving runners and being a smart, situational hitter. We will see how good he really is when he is forced into the situation of two outs and none on. Probably not the best fit for him.

The rotation for the Nationals is a joke, not a single pitcher that is a legitimate ace and not a single player I would take on my team. Than again I would take any of their 5 starters over Adam Eaton.

A.L. East

Climbing the Ladders


DevilRays

For anyone who doesn't know that is Tampa Bay Devil Rays new starting third baseman Evan Longoria, my player to watch this year. Even though the expectations are not high for Tampa this year there is a lot of talent in their lineup. Longoria could hit .280-.300 in his rookie season and Akinori Iwamura seems fine at the second base position. Also moving this year is B.J. Upton into an everyday centerfielder spot but don't be surprised if you seem him move around the starting positions this year and Johnny Gomes gets a handful of starts in center.

The lineup for the Devil Rays looks pretty good with their already established players (Crawford, Pena, Upton, Floyd) meshing with the young sluggers (Longoria, Iwamura, Baldelli).

The pitching staff is taking steps in the right direction as well with two legitimate guys on top of the rotation with Kazmir and Shields. Matt Garza is a guy I am excited to get a steady spot in the majors after never really getting it going in Minnesota. 1-3 I think the Devil Rays are great but after that the rest of the rotation should get shelled and with 40-something closer Troy Percival closing I am shaky about the pen as well.

Falling Down the Chutes


Red Sox

The problem with the Soxs this year is there really isn't anywhere to go but down, especially after winning the World Series and not making any moves in the offseason to play competitive in an American League that has a few teams improve immensely. The lineup remains absolutely the same as last year, which is a problem because that means the black hole of Drew, Crisp, and Lugo is still there. Hopefully for the Red Sox sake Ellsbury wins the starting centerfield spot if he hasn't already.

The rotation remains the same as well with these two problems. A: Curt Schilling's career is in question right now leaving a hole in the number two spot of the rotation and B: Dice-K is a year into his career and with a junk-baller the more players see him the pitch the better they with hit them. Even if Beckett has another Cy-Young like performance this season the rotation still is a downgrade from last year, so overall the Red Sox do not look as great as they were last season.


Yankees

The only news the Yankees made this offseason was admitted steroid use, a liar in front of congress, and the Princes of the Yankees bitching and moaning. The Yankees lost the Johan sweepstake and the rotation still looks old and beat up, minus Wang. Mussina and Pettite look like their careers are winding down, if not over. Hughes and Joba Chamberlain are question marks this year, even if ever Yankees fan will tell you they are the real deal.

Much like the Red Sox, the Yankees did nothing to help their starting lineup, it is exactly the same except now they have pigeon-holed themselves into using Giambi in the field, which hurts the defense. Hideki Matsui will either DH, or not play, because the outfield is set with Damon, Melky Cabrera, and Bobby Abreu. That isn't the best defensive outfield either. Johnny Damon just has lost his touch since he lost the Lizard King look and Abreu has always been a lazy outfielder. Also, I doubt A-Rod will hit a home run every other at bat this season so there is trouble in New York this year as the Wild Card might not come out of the East and the Red Sox and Yanks will be neck and neck.


Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are just there this season. Scott Rolen is the biggest acquisition but he isn't a big upgrade from Troy Glaus. He is a better batting average with less power. Vernon Wells should bounce back after a terrible start last season and David Eckstein gives the Blue Jays a lead off hitter. Halladay is still Halladay, a great pitcher on a bad team and A.J. Burnett will be lucky to start 10 games this season the way he gets hurt. The Blue Jays won't be terrible but they won't be good and the fact that the team doesn't exist in the eyes of the Majors means they are a downgrade this year.


Orioles

The Orioles shortstop position is up in the air with anticipated youngster Freddie Bynum likely out for a long time this season. Adam Jones is a little centerfielder who is looking like he will sleep walk through the season, don't believe me? Check out his picture:

That should summarize the Orioles this season. They traded their ace pitcher for 20 cents to the dollar and now have Jeremy Guthrie as the ace of a terrible pitching staff. The lineup doesn't have a single scary player in it and this team will be lucky to win 60 games this season.

The Best Closer Since Mitch Williams

Here are my end of the season predictions for wins by each team in the East
Bold are teams improve in their win total from last season

N.L. East
Phillies 92
Braves 86
Mets 85
Nationals 70
Marlins 68

A.L. East
Yankees 92
Red Sox 90
Devil Rays 80
Blue Jays 78
Orioles 60

Let the debates begin

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