MLB Fastball 03.21.08: 2008 Season Predictions

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 03.21.2008

The opening pitch of the 2008 season is near and its time to predict how the divisions and subsequent postseason are going to shake out. In this edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein discusses his expectations within each division and picks a World Series Champion for the season ahead.

When Major League Baseball decided to open its 2008 season in Japan, I'm sure it hardly imagined that a lack of compensation to coaches of the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics would almost hold up the festivities. Unfortunately, a league known for having things blow up in its face almost had to deal with another debacle – over money. Go figure.

On Wednesday, Red Sox players hinted that they would boycott the trip to Japan, which will be televised nationally on ESPN, if this matter wasn't resolved. If the coaches didn't get paid, the players would play. Once the Athletics found out their coaches weren't get paid, either, their players were ready to follow suit. All players are set to receive $40,000 in compensation, which was negotiated by the union.

MLB officials fixed this little dilemma rather quickly, allowing the Red Sox to be only an hour late for a spring training game against the Toronto Blue Jays. Managers, coaches and trainers will receive $20,000 from the league. Boston plans to contribute money, as well, so that their pay is equal to that of the players.

Such a noble deed from the players has received great commendation. The typically greedy athletes took a stand for their beloved coaches. They threatened the league's planned opening of the season in a foreign country, and got what they wanted because they essentially backed the MLB into a corner. Tremendous job!

But alas, there is always that cynic in me that wonders why in the blue hell anybody is receiving any type of extra compensation for this trip, whatsoever.

Forget about the coaches for a second. Let's just take a look at the players, who have somehow found another way to get even more money then they're already receiving. All of these guys are getting a free trip to Japan. I'm sure their respective team or the league is covering all their expenses. If anything is coming out of pocket, I doubt it's for anything more than personal mementos. Yet, on top of the millions of dollars they already make, these players are also getting $40,000. These guys are ambassadors for baseball and should be appreciative of the opportunity to go to another country on either their team's or MLB's tab while playing the sport they are already getting paid MILLIONS of dollars for. There should be absolutely no need to give them even more money.

And I don't really care about the supposed inconvenience of having a screwed up schedule based on the time difference. Please, cry me a river about re-adjusting one's schedule and losing sleep. And then I, a graduate student who hasn't gotten a normal night's sleep in ages and have about a million things on the agenda that never allows me to have a normal schedule, will break out the world's smallest violin about these guys being inconvenienced for a freakin' week! Such poor, poor babies. It must suck being an MLB player these days, being forced into taking a weeklong vacation in Japan. Oh, the horror.

As far as the coaches are concerned, I suppose I have a bit more sympathy for them. According to Steve Henson of Yahoo! Sports, the personnel that were passed over for payment from the Red Sox organization make between $30,000 and $150,000 a year in salary. For those making in the five-figure salary range, it's nice that they get thrown a bone even if I still don't believe it's necessary to give them anything extra. And from that standpoint, I will give the players kudos for taking a stand.

But this whole situation is just a reminder to me that there's nothing these players will do just for the love of the game. Even a free trip to Japan to play what is still regular season baseball has to come with an extra paycheck.

2008 MLB Season Predictions

The season officially opens in Japan on March 25 with the Boston Red Sox taking on the Oakland Athletics. The rest of the league begins about a week later. But games will start mattering Tuesday. As a result, this week's MLB Fastball will be dedicated to predicting the season ahead, division-by-division, playoff round-by-playoff round.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

The American League East has been a two-team division for years. I don't expect that to change one little bit in 2008. It's the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, and then everybody else. The Red Sox are coming off a season where they not only won the World Series, but also replaced the Yankees as the AL East winners for the first time since 1995. They're going to come in a more dangerous team this season because a lot of their younger chips in last year's championship run have now matured a bit in the pros and are ready to take on a full season's workload. As a result, the favorite to take the division has to be Boston. In all facets of the game – pitching, offense and defense, the Red Sox are prepared to defend their crown.

The Yankees are definitely going to give them a run for their money. Many believe New York has fallen off a bit. And maybe they have. But they're hardly out of the running for a competitive season, and I see no reason why this team won't end up at least the No. 2 seed in the AL East. The starting pitching staff might not be dazzling on paper, and the bullpen has its question marks. But this team still has a blistering offense and always finds a way to pull through. Plus, a starting rotation with 19-game winner Chien Ming Wang, veteran Andy Pettitte and exciting newcomer Phil Hughes is nothing to scoff at, either.

At No. 3, it's going to be a battle between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays have a very formidable roster, but a much-improved looking Rays squad in addition to injury questions out in Toronto leads me to believe that Toronto will be in for a disappointing run this season while Tampa has its best showing in the team's 11-year existence.

And those lowly Baltimore Orioles are destined for that last place showing in the AL East, and perhaps even the entire American League. You can't lose big stars like Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada and expect to be competitive. This team has some rebuilding to do.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals

The AL Central is a tough call, but very much a two-team division in 2008.

The Cleveland Indians come into the season as defending division champs, and made a great run in last year's playoffs before being ousted in the ALCS by the eventual champs in Boston. Unfortunately for Cleveland, though, the Tigers managed to bulk up a bit both on the mound and at the plate with one trade that brought in Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. I think Cleveland's pitching is still much better than Detroit's. But on an overall basis, I think the Tigers have the tools to sustain a very narrow lead over the Indians – and I do mean very narrow, which will lead to one hell of a competitive season.

At No. 3, I could really see either Minnesota or Chicago taking the spot, but I'll give it to the White Sox because I'm not convinced the Twins are going to be fully prepared to tackle a season without Johan Santana and Torii Hunter. Granted, they could still come out and have a decent year with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan leading the charge. But I just feel like this is going to be a down year for the Twins and an improved one for the White Sox. Much like the Indians and Tigers, though, I see a very slim separation between these two squads.

And that leaves Kansas City, which will end up at the five spot because they're the Royals and that's what they do. Until the Royals actually invest in some legitimate talent, this is where they're going to finish no matter what kinds of transitions the other teams in the division go through.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

The AL West belongs to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim until the Seattle Mariners take them out. I think both of these teams have the ability to compete all year for that top spot in the division. The Angels have had a very deep pitching staff for the past few years, and that isn't going to change this season with John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar once again leading the starting rotation and Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields rounding out the bullpen. Seattle definitely has good pitching, especially with the addition of Erik Bedard to take some pressure off Felix Hernandez. But I'm giving the advantage to the Angels. On offense, Los Angeles worries me because there isn't a ton of power beyond what Vladimir Guerrero has to offer. And even though there's a lot of speed, and I mean a lot, I think Seattle has a good all around game so long as all its players decide to show up this year – namely Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. Since people love to point to pitching as the deal breaker, I'm going to go with the Angels' stronger staff as the reason they take the top spot in the AL West. However, if Seattle can unseat them, I'm not going to be shocked.

Oakland grabs the three spot because they've lost a lot and don't have the tool to compete with much better LA and Seattle squads. Now, I know, never doubt the A's. But unless Rich Harden can remain healthy all year, Joe Blanton can basically play like an ace and Jack Cust can hit 100 home runs with a .400 batting average, 2008 is going to be a struggle in Oakland.

The A's are, however, still better than Texas, who have a horrible looking starting rotation, almost worse looking bullpen and an offense that's very questionable with a whole season minus Mark Teixeira to look forward to. Until Texas invests in some real starting pitching, it's not going to move on to that next level.

NL East

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

The National League East is a three-team race, and the Atlanta Braves definitely need to be considered along with the probably favorite New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

At least the Mets (Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine) and Braves (Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine) have three good starting pitchers at the top of their rotations for 2008, while the Phillies (Cole Hamels, Brett Myers) have two. Chuck James could give the Braves a very good top four, while Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez might just provide the Mets a solid set of outings throughout the rotation. Since I want to see more out of Kyle Kendrick, I won't grant the Phillies a formidable top three. But the potential is certainly there. Regardles, I think the Mets starting pitching still comes out as the best in the NL East. All three bullpens are very questionable, but I have to give the advantage there to the Mets, as well. Even though Billy Wagner can give you a heart attack every time he comes out for the ninth innings, he's a veteran that still ranks as one of the best, if not the best, closers in the NL. And with Brad Lidge and Rafael Soriano both injured and on somewhat of a leash to prove themselves, it could be a struggle for the Phillies and Braves. Plus, I think the staff around Wagner is a bit deep than what Philly and Atlanta has to offer. Offensively, I've taken heat for this before, but I'm a bigger fan of the bats in New York. All three teams have incredible talent. But I'd rather run with David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran than Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins or Mark Teixeira, Chipper Jones and Jeff Francoeur. So, with starting pitching, bullpen and offense all going to the Mets, I'm giving them the NL East. It will definitely be competitive and all three teams will hang throughout the season. But unless they go through another massive collapse – which is still the reason I believe they lose the NL East last season, the Mets are my division winners.

That leaves us with a battle for fourth between the Washington Nationals and Florida Marlins. Both teams have very questionable pitching, in both the starting staff and bullpen. These could be two teams getting easily lit up every night. From an offensive standpoint, I'm tossing my hat behind the Marlins because they have more productive bats in their lineup. Ryan Zimmerman is good and Nick Johnson can contribute when healthy. But I'll bet more on the bats of Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Josh Willingham. Because of that, I'm giving the Marlins the No. 4 spot in the division, while the Nationals take last place.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The NL Central is probably the division that gives me a headache every year. I never really know where to go with them.

But I think one thing is certain. The Chicago Cubs have the best shot at winning the division. They have a deep starting rotation and potential in the bullpen if Kerry Wood can stay healthy. They're searching for a consistently clutch closer, and maybe Carlos Marmol can eventually land the role. On offense, this team is extremely formidable. Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez still the lead the way. But it's a very dangerous lineup all around.

I like Cincinnati to give the Cubs a little bit of trouble. They have an intriguing starting rotation and are waiting for Homer Bailey to come through on his hype. I also like the Reds' bullpen depth and versatility on offense. It might be a long shot, but if any team can sneak up and pass the Cubs, I think the Reds would be that team. Things have to play out nice for the Reds for that to happen. That means Aaron Harang needs to pitch like he has the last two seasons and Bronson Arroyo needs to pitch like he did in 2006. Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn needs to have another banner 40 home run season, Ken Griffey Jr. needs to remain healthy and Brandon Phillips has to play much like he did last season. And Francisco Cordero needs to be on his game as a closer, with David Weather or Jeremy Affedt ready in case they need to fill in. If that all works out, I think there is enough depth in Cincinnati to make some noise in the division.

Offensively, the Milwaukee Brewers are pretty stacked, even if I don't believe Prince Fielder is going to have a year nearly as successful as he did in 2007. But this team is questionable in the pitching department. Nobody had more than 12 wins last season and a sub-three ERA (including relievers, except Francisco Cordero, who had a 2.98 ERA.) I think that pitching is going to kill them because they didn't really get much better in the starting rotation or the bullpen. If Ben Sheets can step up his game and Eric Gagne can not be a disappointment as closer, maybe there's a chance. But even then, pitching is just a weak point for Milwaukee.

Pitching is also going to kill the St. Louis Cardinals. Chris Carpenter should be back in July and Mark Mulder might just come back in May. All that leaves this team right now is Adam Wainwright, who should improve on last year and have a nice season, but with little depth behind him. This team also lacks a top-notch offense, with the pressure completely on Albert Pujols' shoulders. Because past Pujols is Troy Glaus, who will hit some homers at the expense of his batting average, and then really nobody else. This could be a very bad year for the Cardinals if they dig themselves a big hole early on.

In Houston, I love Roy Oswalt. But beyond him is a lackluster staff. And in the bullpen, I question whether Jose Valverde can bring his success from last year to Houston, especially when he's scheduled to have a bad year (based on his consistently inconsistent seasons past in ‘Zona.) This team has some interesting offensive assets, with a great deal of power in Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, a good all around game in Miguel Tejada and some speed in Kaz Matsui and Michael Bourn. But I just see that pitching staff being too much of a detriment.

And then there's Pittsburgh. The Pirates have the pieces to work out of the basement of the division. But the pitching staff has to pick up wins that I doubt it will, and the batters actually need to meet their true potential, which is another thing I doubt will happen. I don't think they'll be sixth by a lot. But I just see the Pirates underachieving once again.

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Diego Padres
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Francisco Giants

With 1-2-3 in the starting rotation of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson, the Arizona Diamondbacks have to be the favorites in the NL West. Add a decent Doug David and Micah Owings in the four and five spots, and the Diamondbacks might just have the top pitching staff in the entire National League and perhaps all of Major League Baseball (the Red Sox' might be No. 1 overall, though.) Losing Jose Valverde could hurt a bit since Brandon Lyon could turn up to be an inconsistent closer. But if he and Chad Qualls can stay intact, the bullpen should be decent in Arizona. There isn't a ton of power at the plate, but there are a lot of good character players, led by Eric Byrnes, Orlando Hudson and Chris B. Young. If the Diamondbacks can gel right off the bat, this is going to be a very dangerous team.

The Los Angeles Dodgers also have a pretty good starting pitching staff. Their top three of Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Cha Billingsley will need to put up more wins than they did in 2007, but they will form a good combination at the top of the rotation. If Jason Schmidt can get healthy and Hiroka Kuroda can meet the hype, this could be a very dominating staff. There's also a very deep, solid bullpen in Los Angeles with a pretty underrated closer in Takashi Saito. The Dodgers' question marks really come in the field. If Andruw Jones can have a rebound year, Rafael Furcal can play a full season and really be a leader, Nomar Garciaparra can get healthy quickly and Jeff Kent can get back to being a 100-RBI guy, then the offense will be somewhat dangerous. But these are all things that are up in the air right now.

The San Diego Padres are all about pitching with Jake Peavy leading the charge. I still hate this team's offense and refuse to bump them over Arizona and Los Angeles as a result. But pitching alone should get them at least the No. 3 spot in the division.

I think the Colorado Rockies had a solid run last year, especially down the stretch. But I'm not buying into this team coming out on all cylinders in 2008. I will give them credit on offense. It's pretty incredible and will go a long way. But the team has no pitching. And that's going to hurt, especially in a division with some great pitching.

And finally, San Francisco is going to have a very down year as it tries to shake off the Barry Bonds era and build the team in a new direction. They have some solid young starters, but they won't be enough to get this team rolling. It's going to be a few years before the Giants are competitive once again.

Postseason

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees

ALDS
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

ALCS
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

NLDS
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies

NLCS
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

World Series
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

2008 World Series Champions

Arizona Diamondbacks



Feedback …

I'm sad for all the other minor league ballplayers like me who just wanted to get a whiff of some action at the MLB level.

How many bus rides did we endure in the minor leagues? How many games did we play in poorly lit parks? How many cheap fast-food meals did we eat?

We paid our dues, but no one gave us an invite. You had to earn your way into MLB. And that's the way it should be.

Most of the guys in the minors could smell MLB treatment - the big league after-game spread, the manicured fields, the first-class way the clubhouse boys shined your shoes before each game. But most didn't taste it. Even the guys in the lowest minor league levels felt that the dream was possible - the dream of getting some MLB playing time. Some, obviously, were closer than others. And it's a very, very, very sad day when you have to walk away from the game knowing that you weren't good enough.

Then to see non-dues-paying Billy Crystal being invited to an at bat even in a meaningless spring training game because he's a famous fan and friendly toward the game is a travesty.

Seeing a comedian (who never rode on a minor league bus trip through the sweltering heat) swinging at bat in a MLB game against a MLB pitcher? That's hard to watch. To my knowledge, nobody cut any minor leaguer I knew a break like Billy Crystal got.

Being in "The Show," even in Spring Training, was something you should have to earn. Either you are good enough or you aren't.

I guess I'll have to settle for my memories of playing in the minors against guys like Eddie Murray and Rickey Henderson before they became famous. I wouldn't trade those memories for anything. It was a true joy being able to play for a few years in the minors. I actually got paid (not much) for playing the greatest game, baseball. When I think about all my high school and college teammates who never got to play pro ball at all, I count my blessings. I got to play professionally.

But it will always be true that I didn't have what it takes to make it all the way to MLB. While it's hard to admit that, it makes me appreciate the guys who play at that level even more.

So, enough of this nonsense about celebrities playing a game at the highest level because the fans might like it. It's demeaning to the game.

Let's hope this is not the start of a trend.

- Rick Duncan

Thanks for writing in, Rick.

I can see you're pretty invested this topic, and would definitely love to hear more about your playing time in the minors. I don't really know who to react to that because I can certainly see how watching Billy Crystal play an at-bat might rub minor leaguers with no chance at making the pros the wrong way.

However, I still contend that too big a deal, and a negative one at that, is being made out of one spring training at bat, and at bat that brought more interest to a meaningless game than an at bat from a minor leaguer we've never heard of ever would. And while I agree, a trend should not begin out of this, I don't agree it's demeaning to the game for a celebrity to play. Crystal is a man who has the utmost respect for the game and apparently wasn't too bad at playing in high school. I can think of a lot worse to give that kind of opportunity to.

But I do respect your opinion, Rick, and appreciate the comment.

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Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to [e-mail]. Or, post away in the comments section below!

Until next time!

~ Neil Borenstein