Curveballs and Sliders 03.28.08: 2008 MLB Preview
Posted by Jared Marcus on 03.28.2008
The time has finally come. This week in Curveballs and Sliders we present our full preview of the 2008 Major League Baseball season. We rank every Major League team from 1 to 30, then predict the finishes of all six divisions as well as predictions for every round of the playoffs including the World Series winner. Also predictions for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year in each league and as a special bonus, we unveil my 10 Greatest Wrestelmania Matches of All-Time!
LEADING OFF
Hello all and welcome to the extra special, one and only, Curveballs and Sliders 2008 Major League Baseball season preview. I apologize for the delay, but this time it was completely intentional. Thursday morning I am leaving for Orlando, FL, where in a span of six days I am going to watch the Braves and Mets play a Spring Training Game, see Ric Flair be inducted into the Hall of Fame, take in the Grandaddy of them all, Wrestlemania 24, and then cruise down to Miami to watch the Mets and the Marlins open the season. Quite a week for me indeed. Because of that I have been very busy this week preparing and also, because of that, there will be no column next week. So I just wanted to get this one out as close to the start of the regular season as possible (not counting the Japan games).
No w onto the preview .
THE TWO HOLE
Before we get to all the predictions, I first want to rank every team in baseball from 1 to 30. If you have been reading this column all off-season you have already seen my individual category rankings for lineups, rotations, defenses, bullpens and benches. Well now its time to put them all together and rank the overall quality of ever Major League team. However this is not an exact reflection of those previous rankings as I have thrown in an X factor into these rankings which is just my own personal feelings. Without further ado ..
1) DETROIT TIGERS Analysis: The Tigers to me are the team to beat. They have a top ten rotation, a top five defense and possibly the best lineup of the decade. The have a potentially big problem with the bullpen, but they should be ahead by more than enough runs on most days for the bullpen to blow many leads.
2) BOSTON RED SOX Analysis: The Red Sox have some holes, several more than you would have thought a month ago, but they are still the defending champs and they still have a top five lineup, a top five rotation and the best bullpen in the game.
3) CLEVELAND INDIANS Analysis: The Indians are a very balanced team. Great defense, great bullpen, very good lineup and potentially excellent rotation. The only thing that will stop them from a second straight AL Central crown is the Tigers, but they will be playoff bound regardless.
4) NEW YORK METS Analysis: I know this may seem like wishful thinking to some, and I know they have some lineup problems right now, but the pitching is just too good, especially on the starting front. To me the Mets have the best #1, #3 and #4 starters in all of baseball, plus Pedro Martinez who in my opinion is still a Cy Young caliber pitcher, which makes them the best rotation in the game. Combine that with David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran and it won't matter what Carlos Delgado or Moises Alou does.
5) LOS ANGELES DODGERS Analysis: We will see just what Joe Torre is made of this year in his first post-Yankee season as a manager. I love the Dodgers lineup, its one of the best in the league from top to bottom and even though their rotation has some injuries right now, it is deep enough to overcome them. They also have a top ten bullpen and top ten defense.
6) NEW YORK YANKEES Analysis: I struggled with this ranking as I learned long ago not to pick against the Yankees until the prove that they can't make the playoffs. However, my actual analysis placed them much lower than this, so I bumped them up on benefit of the doubt alone, but that still left them outside of the playoffs. I can understand any Yankee fan debating this, but I really can't move them any higher. Their lineup is still great, but their starting pitching has holes and their team defense and bullpen both leave a lot to be desired.
7) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Analysis: The Phillies lineup is fantastic, we all know that, but despite being defending NL East Champs, I still can't give them the nod over the Mets because of their rotation. If they matched up against the Mets right now in a four game series I would have to pick the Mets to win three, and that's only because I can't give them the sweep. But if you are lining up pitchers, I would take the Mets across the board (Johan over Hamels, Pedro over Myers, Maine over Kendrick and Oliver Perez over Moyer). However, behind Hamels and Myers, their powerhouse lineup and their excellent defense, the Phillies should still cruise into the playoffs.
8) TORONTO BLUE JAYS Analysis: The Blue Jays actually rate as a better team than the Yankees, but they will have to prove it to me before I can rank them that way. There is a lot of potential here, but I feel this team may still be one year and one player away. A lot depends on the growth of Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Alex Rios, but those are all pretty good bets, meaning the Jays figure to be competitive with the Sox and the Yanks all season long.
9) LOS ANGELES ANGELS Analysis: The Angels are not the club they have been in recent years, especially with the devastating injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, however the AL West is probably the weakest division in baseball this year and the Angels have a deep enough team to weather all these setbacks.
10) CHICAGO CUBS Analysis: For months I thought I was going to pick the Brewers to finally return to the playoffs and win the NL Central, but when push came to shove I just couldn't do it. I like the Cubs pitching better and I think their lineups are pretty even, plus the Cubs have one of the best pens in baseball.
11) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Analysis: It seems silly to me that a year after winning their divison, the D-Backs added Dan Haren to their rotation and I am now picking them to finish second and not even make the playoffs. I love their rotation but I am still not convinced that their lineup is good enough. Their young players will have to prove me wrong.
12) MILWAUKEE BREWERS Analysis: Injuries to the starting rotation have knocked this team down a few pegs for me, but their lineup is still strong and they have the pitching depth to overcome it. They should battle the Cubs down to the wire.
13) SEATTLE MARINERS Analysis: Erik Bedard and King Felix will be the most exciting 1-2 combo to watch in the Majors this season, but the rest of the rotation is suspect and the lineup has several holes that are cause for concern.
14) ATLANTA BRAVES Analysis: The Braves are going to be a very good team this year and may very well beat out both the Mets and the Phillies to win the NL East. They will be in it all the way, but ultimately their poor bullpen and aging rotation will be what keeps them from finishing higher than third.
15) COLORADO ROCKIES Analysis: If the D-Backs ranking was silly, what does that make this? Six months ago this team was in the World Series and now I have virtually the same squad ranked 15th? I know, I don't really get it myself, but I just think that Rockies team last season caught lightning in a bottle and had one of the all-time great runs. I really don't think they are that good of a team and they should come back to earth a little bit in 2008.
16) CHICAGO WHITE SOX They improved the offense a lot and it may be very impressive, but their rotation doesn't offer enough to hang in there with the Indians and Tigers.
17) CINCINNATI REDS This is my sleeper team for 2008 and I think they have an outside shot of making the playoffs, but they are a very young team who will probably need this season just to grow and gain experience before they become contentious in 2009.
18) SAN DIEGO PADRES A lot of pitching, but possibly little offense and a weak defense. Not to mention arguably the toughest division in baseball.
19) MINNESOTA TWINS A lot of how they do obviously depends on Francisco Liriano. But even if he returns to form, their lineup and the rest of their rotation only add up to a fourth place finish.
20) TAMPA BAY RAYS This will be one of the greatest seasons in Rays franchise history, but it will still only be good for a fourth place finish. The injury to Scott Kazmir and how long it lingers will have a huge impact, but regardless, this team still needs one more year of seasoning.
21) HOUSTON ASTROS Great offense, very poor pitching. Even if Miguel Tejada returns to form and Hunter Pence turns into an MVP candidate, you can't make the playoffs with a 2-3-4 of Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe and Woody Williams, it just ain't happening.
22) PITTSBURGH PIRATES I kind of like the Pirates to surprise people this year. After all almost none of their hitters could be worse than they were last year. Bay and LaRoche have to bounce back and they have the potential to have one of the better rotations in the division.
23) BALTIMORE ORIOLES The Orioles lost their two best players this offseason in Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada and I figured they would rank near the very bottom. But their lineup is still solid, and its deep, and their bullpen is decent. The rotation on the other hand is what still keeps them down in the bottom third.
24) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Here is another team that I expected to rank even worse because they have what is probably the worst offense in baseball. But at the end of the day, they have good starting pitching, good defense and a decent bullpen, adding up to a team that is far from the worst.
25) KANSAS CITY ROYALS The Royals are making progress, its slow and steady progress, but progress nonetheless. Look for this to be one final tune up year before they finally make a leap forward in 2009.
26) WASHINGTON NATIONALS Not nearly as bad as they looked entering last year, but their rotation has taken a hit in recent weeks. Still, they have a very deep roster and a decent lineup and their rotation has the chance to surprise.
27) ST, LOUIS CARDINALS This will definitely be the worst season in St. Louis in over a decade. They have little in the way of pitching and they may have even less in the way of offense. Especially once Mr. Pujols shuts it down in July when they find themselves 20 games out.
28) TEXAS RANGERS This could be a fun lineup to watch and there is a lot of potential there, but then the pitchers will take the mound and all fun will fly out the window.
29) OAKLAND A'S Much like the Cardinals, it will be one of the poorer seasons in quite a while for the A's. Rich Harden looked good in the opener, but its only a matter of time before he goes down, leaving Joe Blanton to basically fend for himself with a glorified Triple-A lineup.
30) FLORIDA MARLINS The Marlins lineup is actually not that bad, and the pitching may not be either if Scott Olsen and Sergio Mitre could actually fulfill their potential. However, those things are not likely and this team is the worst defensive team in the Majors.
There you have it, that's all for my rankings, but fear not, there are a lot more prognostications and predictions to come, so let's get to them ASAP ..
BATTING THIRD ..
Now it's time for the full predictions, I don't want to waste a minute, so let's jump right in.
AL EAST
1) Red Sox
2) Yankees
3) Blue Jays
4) Rays
5) Orioles
AL CENTRAL
1) Tigers
2) Indians
3) White Sox
4) Twins
5) Royals
AL WEST
1) Angels
2) Mariners
3) Rangers
4) A's
POSTSEASON
Division Series
Mets over Cubs in 4
Dodgers over Phillies in 5
Red Sox over Indians in 4
Tigers over Angels in 4
Championship Series
Mets over Dodgers in 6
Tigers over Red Sox in 7
World Series
Tigers over Mets in 6
AWARDS
NL MVP
1) Chase Utley - PHI
2) David Wright - NYM
3) Matt Holliday - COL
4) Ryan Howard - PHI
5) Mark Teixeira - ATL
6) Alfonso Soriano - CHC
7) Ryan Braun - MIL
8) Andruw Jones - LD
9) Carlos Beltran - NYM
10) Adrian Gonzalez - SD
Others: Jimmy Rollins, Johan Santana, Prince Fielder, Derrek Lee, Russell Martin, Carlos Lee, Troy Tulowitzki, Adam Dunn, Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Lance Berkman, Brandon Phillips
AL MVP
1) Miguel Cabrera - DET
2) Alex Rodriguez - NYY
3) David Ortiz - BOS
4) Grady Sizemore - CLE
5) Vlad Guerrero - LAA
6) Manny Ramirez - BOS
7) Travis Hafner - CLE
8) Alex Rios - TOR
9) Derek Jeter - NYY
10) Nick Markakis - BAL
Others: Carl Crawford, Victor Martinez, Justin Morneau, Ichiro Suzuki, Paul Konerko
NL CY YOUNG
1) Johan Santana NYM
2) Cole Hamels - PHI
3) Jake Peavy - SD
4) Brandon Webb - ARI
5) Roy Oswalt - HOU
Others: Dan Haren, Aaron Harang, Pedro Martinez, Chris Young, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Lincecum, Carlos Zambrano, Adam Wainwright, Chad Billingsley
AL CY YOUNG
1) Daisuke Matsuzaka - BOS
2) C.C. Sabathia - CLE
3) Erik Bedard - SEA
4) Josh Becett - BOS
5) Roy Halladay - TOR
Others: Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano
NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
1) Joe Torre - LAD
2) Willie Randolph NYM
3) Dusty Baker - CIN
AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
1) Jim Leyland - DET
2) Eric Wedge - CLE
3) John Gibbons - TOR
NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
1) Johnny Cueto - CIN
2) Justin Upton - ARI
3) Geovany Soto - CHC
4) Jay Bruce - CIN
5) Jair Jurrjens - ATL
AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
1) Jacoby Ellsbury - BOS
2) Evan Longoria - TB
3) Clay Buchholz - BOS
4) Luke Hochevar - KC
5) Ian Kennedy - NYY
NL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
1) Pedro Martinez - NYM
2) Andruw Jones - LAD
3) Randy Johnson - ARI
4) Jason Bay - PIT
5) Miguel Tejada - HOU
Others: Brett Myers, Chad Tracy
AL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
1) Francisco Liriano - MIN
2) Mike Mussina - NYY
3) Vernon Wells - TOR
4) Richie Sexson - SEA
5) Cliff Floyd - TB
Others: Joe Crede, Gary Sheffield
Ok, that will do it for predictions. I was planning to include predictions for the All-Star Game rosters as well, but space does just not allow this week. I will however include those predictions in the next column (in two weeks) when there will be less to talk about and they will still be just as much fun. So that will wrap up our 2008 MLB Preview but still one section to go, let's now switch topics to the other big event this weekend
CLEANING UP
As I mentioned in the intro, later this week I will be attending Wrestlemania, and even though I am not as big of a wrestling fan as I was in my young years, I still follow it and always am a sucker for Wrestlemania. To me, as a diehard sports fan, it is and always will be one of the ten biggest sports days of the year. Plus, I am really looking forward to being there as I haven't seen a Wrestlemania in person since Wrestlemania V, which was almost 20 years ago (boy time flies, I can't believe its been that long)
Because of that I always like to do some sort of Wrestlemania themed installment of "The Greatest", especially with this being the premier wrestling website on the internet. This year I thought it would be fun to break down my personal favorite wrestlemania moments/matches. I am not here to give you breakdowns or rankings, you can check the wrestling zone for that where many of their great writers will give you great Mania features over the next few days.
Now, you wrestling guys, don't tear apart my list, again, this is just my own personal feelings. This isn't based on how the match holds up over time or its impact on wrestling, only on how I felt watching it at the time. In other words, these are the 10 matches/moments that I will never forget watching live because blew me out of my seat at the time. As part of that criteria, only Manias that I watched live are eligible, meaning that Bret vs. Shawn in the ironman match as well as anything from Wrestlemania XIII, XV and XIX are not eligible.
"My 10 Greatest" ..Wrestlemania Matches of All-Time
10) Streetfight: Shane McMahon vs. Vince McMahon (Wrestlemania X-7)
09) WWF Championship: Hulk Hogan vs. Andre the Giant (Wrestlemania III)
08) Shawn Michaels vs. Kurt Angle (Wrestlemania XXI)
07) WWF Championship: Hulk Hogan vs. Ultimate Warrior (Wrestlemania VI)
06) World Heavyweight Championship: Triple H vs. Shawn Michael vs. Chris Benoit (Wrestlemania XX)
05) Retirement Match: Randy Savage vs. Ultimate Warrior (Wrestlemania VII)
04) TLC II: Hardys vs. Dudleys vs. Edge & Christian (Wrestlemania X-7)
03) Hollywood Hogan vs. The Rock (Wrestlemania X-8)
02) IC Title Match: Randy Savage vs. Ricky Steamboat (Wrestlemania III)
01) Ladder Match: Shawn Michaels vs. Razor Ramon (Wrestlemania X)
Hogan/Rock
Savage/Warrior
Benoit/HHH/HBK XX
HBK/Angle - 21
Hogan/Warrior
TLC II X-7
Shane vs. Vince X-7
Ok that will do it for me this week. As I said in the intro, I won't be here next week, but I will return in two weeks with all-star game predictions, a mailbag, the continuation of the greatest lineup/rotation series and thoughts on the first week of the season. See ya then, and of course, until then ..
I'll give you that the Braves have an old rotation with Smoltz & Glavine,
but poor bullpen? They had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year and
return it virtually intact.
Posted By: JeremyL (Guest) on March 28, 2008 at 11:32 AM
Well Marcus time for generic defense of the Phillies from me. I really think
you overrate Beltran and Wright. Beltran is coming off that knee surgery and
you know hes gonna be a little gimpy not to mention he did not have a great (it
was good but not great) average last year. I really think the Mets lineup is
weak and you said it yourself, you dont expect a whole lot from Delgado and
Alou. It is going to be a really fun race between the Mets and Phils and I am
sure we will be butting heads all season, but hey, its gonna be fun.
Oh yeah and Dice-K for Cy Young? I think I just threw up a little.
Posted By: Guest#8603 (Guest) on March 28, 2008 at 12:05 PM
That last comment was me, I forgot to register at the newspaper office doing
work
Posted By: Ken Schmidt (Registered) on March 28, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Yeah, the Mets and Phillies are gonna have a good race for 2nd place behind the
Braves.
Posted By: JeremyL (Guest) on March 28, 2008 at 03:59 PM
Hey Jared, great preview. I'm going to differ with you on the Mets' rotation.
Yes, they added the best pitcher on the planet in the offseason, but El Duque
is ancient, and Pedro is fooling people less and less these days. John Maine is
a serviceable starter, and he's just hitting his prime, but I don't think we're
going to see the kind of numbers that we saw from him last year. If the Mets
have confidence in him and use him in the short-series playoffs, then they have
a chance to make it past the first round. Other than that,
Santana/Hernandez/Martinez isn't going to get it done.
Posted By: A.J. Stevens (Registered) on March 28, 2008 at 04:17 PM
All right! Some love for my Dodgers. Not many people have them high up there but
i'm glad you at least have us in the Championship Series and Torre winning
Manager of the Year. Hell, we haven't won that since Lasorda was with us.
Posted By: Um...me (Guest) on March 28, 2008 at 08:58 PM
I'll bet you any amount of money you'd like that the A's won't finish in last
place this year. I'm serious. Drop me an e-mail. I need money, and this is an
easy way to do it.
Posted By: JD Koziarski (Registered) on March 29, 2008 at 04:22 AM
All I have to say about the braves is that Rafael Soriono is listed as their
closer.
Good lineup, old and injured starters, and a now depleted bullpen. Good luck
Atlanta!
92 wins for the ets gets it done in the NL east. Philly and Atlanta fight for
the wild card.
Posted By: Big Dirty (Guest) on March 30, 2008 at 07:06 PM
There's absolutely no way that the Cardinals will be worse than the Pirates this
year.
Posted By: Bryz (Guest) on March 30, 2008 at 11:48 PM
