This Week in Fantasy Baseball 03.28.08
Posted by Mark Crouse on 03.28.2008
Outfielders and catchers are discussed in this week's TWIFB. Feel the magic!
Welcome to another edition of This Week in Fantasy Baseball. The start of the season is right around the corner, and the Red Sox and A's have officially kicked off 2008 in Japan, and TWIFB is ready with a preview of catchers and outfielders this week, with positional previews wrapping up next week with pitchers. But first, some news and views.
-March Madness has been amazing once again, with a ton of compelling games, a handful of Cinderella surprises, and many entertaining individual performances. Three of my final four are alive, with Georgetown falling to Davidson, thanks to Roy Hibbert taking the night off. I'm no NBA expert, but after seeing Hibbert falling on his tucchus in a number of big games, I can't see him as a great NBA center. Should have come out last year, Roy. But he'll be a lottery pick in a league that can't help but fawn over seven-footers, regardless of how big a stiff they are.
I stick by my prediction of UCLA taking the whole shebang, even after their tense second-round victory over Texas A&M. Why? Because they play defense, and defense never takes a night off. The Bruins are the only team that can keep teams like North Carolina and Texas under 70 when they need to. Ben Howland is a great coach, especially in close games, which seem to be every game in the tournament.
-The Tampa Bay Rays optioned third base uber-prospect Evan Longoria to AAA this week. This move has a lot less to do about performance and a lot more to do about pushing back Longoria's arbitration date. Personnel decisions like this illustrate why Tampa is a second-rate organization and why their fans have been frustrated for years, while every other recent expansion team has tasted at least some level of success. Oh, wait. I forgot, Tampa doesn't actually have any fans. For fantasy purposes, hang on to Longoria if you have an extra roster spot, especially in keeper leagues. He'll be in the majors at some point, and will produce as expected.
-In other prospect news, the Florida Marlins sent outfielder Cameron Maybin to AA this week. Maybin was acquired in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis trade, and is regarded as a top young player. With this assignment, Maybin is undraftable in any non-keeper league, since it is possible Maybin won't see the majors until September. The Marlins are in no hurry with Maybin, so stow him away for '09.
-The Chicago White Sox sent third baseman Josh Fields to AAA this week. This is why drafts are best held as close to the season as possible. Fields produced very well in the second half of last year, but the Sox decided to stick with Joe Crede for now. Rumors of a Crede trade have not materialized, but keep an eye out for Fields if when he is recalled, since he has a slightly deeper resume than Longoria.
-Detroit Tigers center fielder Curtis Granderson will start the season on the DL with a broken bone in his finger. This hurts his value slightly, but all accounts put Granderson back into the lineup before the end of April. It's a long season, and the good news is that his injury isn't leg-related, which is where Granderson sets himself apart as a fantasy commodity. More on where Granderson ranks will follow when I rank the outfielders later in this column.
In the meantime, Brandon Inge will fill in for the Tigers. He is a good short-term solution since Inge can still hit. Not to mention he's in that great Tiger lineup. It is unknown at this point where Inge will bat while he is in the lineup.
-Kerry Wood has been named the closer for the Chicago Cubs. This is a tough pill to swallow for Carlos Marmol owners, since he was the perceived front runner for the job. Marmol still retains some value as a top setup man and could be closing games at any time in '08 since Wood has been constantly injured for his career. Wood ranks low on the list of confirmed closers, but he has value and could surprise if he stays healthy for once.
And now...the catchers!
2008 Fantasy Preview: Catchers
Catcher is typically an afterthought for fantasy owners, since it is the one position whose starters only play about 80% of their team's games. Where to select a team's catcher is a strategic quandary, since there are about five of them that will make significant noise in fantasy. Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and Jorge Posada are the top tier of catchers, and the second tier is nowhere near as good.
The big question at catcher is, "How early will I need to draft Victor?" The answer for a ten-team league is somewhere in the 3-5 range, since someone will overbid for him to corner the market. I've seen that Martin and sometimes Mauer will go shortly after Martinez since owners are scared to get stuck with a second-rate backstop.
The hot youngster to be aware of is Chicago Cub Geovany Soto. I like Soto as a starter for a fantasy team, since he produced at the end of '07, and can't be any worse than the other catchers ranked in his range. His upside is significant, since catcher is typically a speculative position. Getting similar production from Soto eight rounds after Posada is drafted can make a big difference when constructing your team.
Here are the top 15 catchers headed into '08:
1.Victor Martinez-CLE
2.Russell Martin-LAD-The only catcher who will contribute more than 20 stolen bases.
3.Brian McCann-ATL
4.Joe Mauer-MIN-Good average, no power yet. A switch to another position to save his body would be welcome.
5.Jorge Posada-NYY-There is no way Posada will match his numbers from last year, but he still deserves this ranking.
6.Kenju Johjima-SEA
7.Geovany Soto-CHC
8.Bengie Molina-SF-Will toil primarily in obscurity in San Fran, but had good power numbers in '07.
9.Ivan Rodriguez-DET
10.Ramon Hernandez-BAL
11.Jason Varitek-BOS-The definition of boring, steady catcher production.
12.Gerald Laird-TEX
13.Carlos Ruiz-PHI
14.A.J. Pierzynski-CHW
15.Mike Napoli-LAA
2008 Fantasy Preview: Outfielders
The most important thing to consider when drafting outfielders is the number of starting spots you have to fill with them. Most leagues start five outfielders, which puts more of a premium on them than leagues that start three. There is a real lack of top-level power at the position, with only three players (Adam Dunn, Matt Holiday, Carlos Lee) to have a real shot at 40 homers in my opinion. For the first time in recent memory, you could take a strategy of loading up on power in the infield and focusing on speed and average for some of your outfield spots with guys like Juan Pierre, Shane Victorino, and Willy Taveras. There is also only one bona fide first round player in the outfield, with Colorado's Matt Holiday being drafted somewhere between 5-10.
Manny Ramirez is a fast riser in drafts due to his explosive start in Japan this week, and the fact that he's in a contract year. Proceed with caution, fellow owners. Ramirez has missed thirty games in each of the past two seasons, and they've been late in the season. He'll perform while healthy, but you'll likely have to select him over guys like Alex Rios, Hunter Pence, and the aforementioned Dunn (who is also in a career year, by the way). I can't do it choose Ramirez over those younger options.
At some point every owner will have to make a choice as to which young, unproven outfielder to select, especially since the upside on players like Corey Hart, Matt Kemp, and Delmon Young can create some real value over taking more established veterans like Aaron Rowand and Jason Bay at the same area of the draft.
Here are the top 50 outfielders:
1.Matt Holiday-COL-A legitimate monster who is a fantasy centerpiece. And he hasn't hit his peak yet.
2.Alfonso Soriano-CHC
3.Carlos Lee-HOU
4.Grady Sizemore-CLE-Top speed and power candidate on the board. Better than Crawford, and I don't care what anyone says.
5.Ichiro Suzuki-SEA
6.Carlos Beltran-NYM
7.Carl Crawford-TB
8.Vladimir Guerrero-LAA-This is the year Vlad reestablishes himself in the fantasy elite, or he officially enters the downside of his career.
9.B.J. Upton-TB-Also qualifies at second base, although he won't actually play there.
10.Lance Berkman-HOU
11.Nick Markakis-BAL
12.Magglio Ordonez-DET
13.Curtis Granderson-DET-He drops a few spots, but if he returns by May, he deserves to be top 15.
14.Adam Dunn-CIN
15.Alex Rios-TOR
16.Corey Hart-MIL-Big time upside, big time lineup to hit in. One of the few outfielders to take a chance on and overdraft a bit.
17.Eric Byrnes-ARI
18.Manny Ramirez-BOS
19.Torii Hunter-LAA
20.Chris Young-ARI-If you take him, you are hoping he bumps up his average. Since AVG is the most variable stat, as well as the most luck-based, it's not a bad wager. He'll always be a liability for that stat, but his power and speed are rare.
21.Hunter Pence-HOU
22.Bobby Abreu-NYY
23.Matt Kemp-LAD-Probably the most likely of the youngsters to not live up to the hype, since his stadium works against him, and he just has the feel of a guy who never quite reaches his potential.
24.Jeff Fancoeur-ATL-He has Teixiera for a whole year, and has apparently bulked up a bit. You could do worse.
25.Delmon Young-MIN
26.Vernon Wells-TOR-I've been burned by Wells before, but if he plays up to his abilities, he'll vastly outproduce this ranking.
27.Brad Hawpe-COL
28.Hideki Matsui-NYY
29.Juan Pierre-LAD-He's had a crappy spring, but how many times have we seen a player rebound during the season and everyone that passed on him regret it.
30.Shane Victorino-PHI
31.Nick Swisher-CHW
32.Josh Hamilton-TEX
33.Raul Ibanez-SEA-He won't excite anyone, but .280-25-100 as a fourth outfielder is a good draft pick.
34.Aaron Rowand-SF-I hate this team's lineup. Rowand is the only power threat, and that's a sad thing.
35.Willy Taveras-COL-One category, but if he's healthy for the whole year, he's a dominant speed threat.
36.Jermaine Dye-CHW
37.Andruw Jones-LAD-Worst career year I can remember. And he moves to a pitcher's ballpark.
38.Kosuke Fukudome-CHC
39.Jose Guillen-KC
40.Pat Burrell-PHI
41.Ken Griffey, Jr.-CIN-Relive history and take Junior for a fifth outfielder. Plus, you can be the guy to own him when he hits home run 700.
42.Josh Willingham-FLA
43.Jeremy Hermida-FLA
44.Jacoby Ellsbury-BOS
45.Rick Ankiel-STL-A project, but what a project. Big time power potential, but I'd prefer to take him as a bench player and hit a longshot than depend on Ankiel for production.
46.Justin Upton-ARI
47.Jack Cust-OAK
48.Jay Bruce-CIN
49.Luke Scott-HOU
50.Adam Jones-BAL
Enjoy the start of the season, folks! See you next week for a look at relief and starting pitchers. Don't miss Wrestlemania (good luck, Nature Boy), and until we meet again, Godspeed!
