MLB Fastball 03.30.08: Angels Pitching Concerns
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 03.30.2008
Before the 2008 season even starts, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are without their top two starters and their setup man. Some would see this as a recipe for disaster to the Angels’ AL West crown hopes. But in this edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein takes a look at while despite having concerns in the bullpen, the Angels won’t be too bad in the starting rotation department.
I'd love to say I was awake at 6 a.m. eastern time on Tuesday and Wednesday to catch the Oakland Athletics and Boston Red Sox open the season in Japan. Unfortunately, I did not. I did catch an inning or two of the first game and the last three innings of the second game. But I didn't see either one in its entirety.
One of the most interesting things I caught during my limited viewing of the early week festivities was the walking advertisements players became. On the sleeve of their jerseys and side of their batting helmets, players had company advertisements. This practice is actually banned by Major League Baseball, but an exception was made for this Japan trip, according to ESPN's play-by-play announcer Gary Thorne.
While currently banned in American played games, I'm not going to be even remotely surprised when the day comes along that you won't be able to tell the difference between Álex Rodríguez and a NASCAR automobile. With the numerous ways every league, organization, network and Web site tries to make a dollar, increasing advertisements always seems to be the avenue with a never-ending amount of options. It's just too bad this wasn't around in time for use to see Darryl Strawberry walk to the plate with "The Coke Side Of Life" plastered across his chest. (It's okay if you don't get it – I realize my attempts at humor are pointless.)
Another interesting tidbit that actually doesn't piss me off and makes complete sense is that the games in Japan, which count as home games for Oakland, will not hurt the pockets of the A's. Since these are two games off the regular season schedule for Oakland, they would have stood to lose the gate they would have received had the games taken place at McAfee Coliseum. Since these were games against Boston, that would have been a pretty significant loss.
The league, however, will fork over that lost money to Oakland. That way, the A's still get their compensation, which is important to pay players, and the MLB can fairly market its game overseas.
Pitching Woes Early For Angels
Lackey, Escobar, Shields Starting Season On DL
Kelvim Escobar's shoulder could keep him out the full season.
The bread and butter of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim has long been their pitching, specifically starting pitching. The Angels have had one of the strongest starting staffs in Major League Baseball for several years. With an ever-growing list of budding stars and incredible depth that forces MLB-caliber arms to spend time in the minors, the Angels have an arsenal that very few other teams can boast.
Injuries present some concerns for the Angels. They have been predicted as the American League West champions for the upcoming season based mainly on their pitching. With some chinks in the armor, a cloud of doubt reigns over the Halos. But it's that incredible depth they possess that will help them make it through both the short and long-term damage present in their staff.
The Angels will open 2008 without their top two starters. Ace John Lackey continues to rehab his strained triceps and will miss the first month of the year. His timetable has him back with the team in May. The injury to 32-year old Kelvim Escobar, the team's No. 2, is more serious and could impact the team for a much longer period. Escobar has a shoulder tear that could force him into going under the knife for season-ending and potentially career-threatening surgery. Even if Escobar is able to return following a surgery of that stature, Bartolo Colon and Pedro Martinez are posterboys for the fact that pitchers don't quite come back to the game in the same form they left it prior to the operation. Escobar is expected to be out until at least June even if he doesn't opt for the surgery.
Los Angeles suffers the loss of 37 combined wins from last season between those two pitchers. Lackey posted a 19-9 record with two complete games, two shutouts, an AL-leading 3.01 ERA and 179 strikeouts. In his fourth season with the Angels, Escobar went 18-7 with three complete games, one shutout, a 3.40 ERA and 160 Ks. That's hard production to replace, even if Lackey is expected back in early May.
The Angels will be all right, though, because they still boast a starting rotation that's competitive enough with the rest of the league.
Until Lackey returns, Jered Weaver should be the top starter. He's at least the Angels' choice for Opening Day, which would leave me to believe he's the temporary ace. He had a bit of a down-year last season, at least compared to his rookie campaign. But Weaver still scored 13 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA. And he's had a nice spring, which should increase his confidence come the regular season. If Weaver grabs 15 wins this season, he's a success as he continues to grow in the Angels' system.
Jon Garland, who was acquired by the Angels in a trade last November for shortstop Orlando Cabrera, will follow Weaver. Garland posted back-to-back 18-win seasons in 2005 and 2006. He only had 10 last season, but the 4.23 ERA he accompanied them with was the third-best of his eight-year career with the White Sox. I wouldn't bank on Garland getting back to the 18-win plateau this year. But a 15- to 16-win season is not unreasonable.
Joe Saunders is coming in as the mid-rotation starter at the three spot. Saunders got the shaft a bit last season, as his job with the Angels was never really secure no matter how many good performances he had. He wasn't really a mainstay in the rotation until late July. That just proves how deep the Angels are in pitching. But with these injures, Saunders not only has a secure spot in the starting rotation to begin the season, but he's able to come out in a pretty good spot for his talents. He's not quite proven enough to grab the first or second spot in the rotation, but his starts last year makes him at least better than the rest of the guys currently occupying the backend slots. In 18 games last season, Saunders had eight wins and a 4.44 ERA with 69 strikeouts. Over a full slate of games, Saunders might still be over four in the earned run average department, but at least 12 wins should accompany it.
The rotation gets a bit dicey with Ervin Santana in the No. 4 spot. He had a very down-year last season with only seven wins to 14 losses and an ERA of 5.76. The 25-year old enters this season with a lot of pressure to have a rebound year and pitch more like he did in 2006, when he secured 16 wins with a 4.28 ERA and 141 strikeouts. Santana has the talent to do it. It's just a matter of shrugging off the criticism and building up his confidence. If he can do that, he'll end up being a top of the rotation quality-pitcher at the backend of the rotation.
Coming in at No. 5 is either reliever Dustin Moseley or 21-year old right-hand prospect Nick Adenhart. It's pretty difficult to gage just how well, or bad, either of these pitchers will play if given the No. 5 spot. But putting Moseley in would take an arm out of the bullpen, which they could use right now. So a much more convenient option would be Adenhart, even if the Angels would rather not rush him and give him some more time in the minors. It would only be temporary anyway.
Again, Weaver, Garland, Saunders, Santana and Moseley/Adenhart don't comprise the most dynamic starting rotation in Major League Baseball. But considering the two pitchers they're losing, I'll contend this is still a damn impressive set of pitchers to toe the mound when stacked up against the rest of the league.
There is some thought that the Angels should look toward the trade block to ease the loss of at least Escobar, whose status is still very much up in the air. Names like Jon Lieber and Jason Marquis of the Chicago Cubs, as well as Oakland's Joe Blanton, are being tossed around as possible candidates to be pursued by the Halos. But instead of using any of their trade chips on more starting pitching, the Angels should just show some faith in the guys that they have. Luckily, I think Los Angeles is prepared to remain in house, at least according to manager Mike Scioscia, unless the guys they have now falter and a need for some outside help becomes apparent.
Where the Angels might want to focus some wheeling and dealing is in the bullpen.
The Angels still have their most important piece in closer Francisco Rodriguez. But some of the guys needed to fill the gap between the starter and Rodriguez are on the mend, including veteran setup man Scot Shields. The 32-year old Shields is rehabbing from a forearm strain and will begin the season on the DL.
This sort of situation was probably a long time coming for Shields. He pitches an extraordinary amount of innings and has the type of delivery that would eventually lead to problems. Shields has pitched an average of about 90.1 innings over the past four years, when he's been strictly a relief pitcher. That's going to catch up. And last season, Shields had his worst season as a reliever when he posted an ERA of 3.86 in 77 innings.
There is definitely reason for concern that a mix of this injury and flat-out being overworked may have Shields being less effective going forward. And I think that's more reason to worry than the starting pitching woes. There isn't anybody else on the Angels' roster that's quite like Shields was when he was one of the most dominant setup men in the MLB.
To begin the season, Justin Speier will take the ball in eighth innings. And if Shields isn't able to get back to form when he does rejoin the team, Speier could become a more permanent option.
Another important arm in Chris Bootcheck is expected to miss some time. Though he shouldn't miss as much time as originally expected since he's making a more speedy recovery than usual from an oblique injury, an actual return date is unknown. Therefore, I doubt he'll be back on the mound anytime too soon.
The bullpen's status is a greater concern, in my opinion, than that of the starting rotation as a result of these two losses. With the starting rotation, even if Escobar is out for the whole year, Lackey will be back in a month and there's enough depth to make up for him. In the bullpen, Shields being injured and going on the decline is not good for the Angels. Time will tell if Speier is good enough to lead into K-Rod pending Shields isn't able to make it work. But I doubt he'll be as good an option as Shields was.
If the Angels were determined to make a move somewhere, and they chose not to go after a big bat, the bullpen should be next up on the list. Starting pitching is not the greatest necessity.
Some believe this is Seattle's chance to move past the Angels as the favorites to take the AL West. The reason Los Angeles has been declared to be the favorites by many is because of pitching. And with these injuries, that severely decreases their hold on the division. And I guess it's a fair point because the Mariners are coming in healthy with a team definitely capable of winning. I still think it will be Los Angeles' title. But, as I said last week, I won't be shocked if the Mariners manage to walk out division winners (although it's going to take a lot more than early season happenings to make that come to fruition.)
WrestleMania 24 Predictions …
Bunnymania Lumberjack Match
Ashley and Maria vs. Beth Phoenix and Melina Winners: Ashley and Maria
Belfast Brawl
Finlay vs. JBL Winner: Finlay
24-Man Battle Royal – Winner Faces ECW Champion Chavo Guerrero Winner: Tommy Dreamer
ECW Championship
Chavo Guerrero (c) vs. Tommy Dreamer Winner and NEW ECW Champion: Tommy Dreamer
(I know how this sounds, but check out my profile blog and scroll down to see why I went this way.)
Smackdown vs. RAW
Batista vs. Umaga Winner: Batista
Money In The Bank Ladder Match
Chris Jericho vs. MVP vs. Carlito vs. CM Punk vs. John Morrison vs. Mr. Kennedy vs. Shelton Benjamin Winner: MVP
Floyd "Money" Mayweather vs. Big Show Winner: Floyd "Money" Mayweather
Ric Flair vs. Shawn Michaels Winner: Shawn Michaels
World Heavyweight Championship
Edge (c) vs. The Undertaker Winner and NEW World Heavyweight Champion: The Undertaker
WWE Championship – Triple Threat Match
Randy Orton (c) vs. Triple H vs. John Cena Winner and NEW WWE Champion: Triple H
Send all comments, questions, and suggestions to br7qbsteelers@yahoo.com. Or, post away in the comments section below!
