This Week in Fantasy Baseball 04.04.08

Posted by Mark Crouse on 04.04.2008

Mark finishes his previews with pitchers in the longest TWIFB yet! Also, find out what a fantasy dork has to say about Wrestlemania 24. It won't disappoint!

Welcome to another mourning for Ric Flair edition of This Week in Fantasy Baseball. In this edition of TWIFB, we'll take a look at pitchers, from fireballing youngsters to crafty veterans. But first, some random commentary.

-Speaking of wrestling, this year's Wrestlemania did not disappoint, as I found five of the matches to be on the good to great side (both title matches, Big Show-Mayweather, Money in the Bank, and of course Flair-Michaels). The Flair match was a legitimately emotional event for me, a grown man who had himself and his bride played into their wedding reception to Flair's entrance music as he styled and profiled. We'll miss you, Ric. The saddest part is that I fear we'll never see another performer like you. Also, big ups to the Heartbreak Kid, who should be forever deemed The Ribbreak Kid after taking that horrific bump on the announce table.

I was impressed by Mayweather's willingness to take some solid shots in his match with the Big Show. As celebrity matches go, it was a classic, with the WWE writers concocting the only formula for a man 1/3 the size of his opponent to win. Various posse members interfering + steel chair + brass knucks on a world champion boxer = relatively plausible outcome. For pro wrestling, that is.

Outside of Flair, I felt the biggest star of the night was Edge, even though he didn't keep his belt. The WWE made sure to book him strong so they could be able to reenter the title picture when they need him. I've never seen anyone counter and absorb so many finishers from the Undertaker. It's the best anyone has looked in a loss that I can remember. At Wrestlemania 24, a scheming, cowardly heel became a legit title holder and long-term title contender.

-My beloved Orioles dropped a rainy, dreary Opening Day contest to the reborn Tampa Bay Rays on Monday. Staff "ace" Jeremy Guthrie surrendered all six runs in the 6-2 loss. James Shields got the win for the Rays, and picked up where he left off in '07, allowing two runs, but not allowing an Oriole past first base after the first inning.

-The Final Four features all four #1 seeds for the first time in the history of the field of 64. I still like UCLA to win it all. They are the only team of the four that can hold Memphis and UNC under 70. You may ask, "What about Kansas?" To which I would reply,"Yeah, what about Kansas?"

Davidson's Stephen Curry was hands-down the most entertaining player I've ever watched in the tournament since I can remember. He reenacted Wake Forest's Randolph Childress' run in the 1995 ACC tournament, except on national television and on an underdog team that no can place on a map. Good television all around. The announcement that he is staying in school was the best news I heard all week.

Alright, enough of this tomfoolery, onto the fantasy talk!

2008 Fantasy Preview: Starting Pitchers

Starting pitching is the most fluid commodity in fantasy baseball. Every year, a few guys come out of the woodwork to make a name for themselves, a few guys fall off the face of the earth, and a few guys get drafted in the first five rounds and need season-ending surgery before May. This volatility causes fantasy owners to adopt a concrete strategy regarding starters, and that strategy will dictate their entire draft.

I've decided to divide the starting pitching ranks into groups, allowing you to get an idea of when to draft a particular level of starter to create a balanced staff. My personal strategy is to grab at least one pitcher in each of the first three groups, and than fill in with underrated arms with upside, and one boring, dependable veteran to balance the risk. Your starter strategy will also be impacted on your philosophy in drafting relief pitching, which we will discuss in that preview later.

The first group consists of Johan Santana and Jake Peavy, plain and simple. The gap between these two and the rest of the pack is dramatic. Santana and Peavy allow you to draft fewer pitchers due to their dominance, which can actually allow their owners to construct a dominant hitting team if they are savvy.

The lure of young pitchers is strong, but overloading with unproven starters can be disastrous due to their managers limiting their pitch counts or destroying their arms with overuse. Young bucks like Cincy's Jonny Cueto and Homer Bailey are sexy additions to your staff, but may cost you production over more tested, but less interesting innings-eaters like Los Angeles' Derek Lowe or Chicago's Ted Lilly. Indulge yourself in some young studs (that sounds awkward), but have some balance in case they fall through.

There are a handful of starters who are recovering from surgery or are fighting minor injuries that can be snatched up at bargain prices for owners who position themselves to take risk. Josh Beckett is likely to make his first start of the season this weekend, but he's always an injury possibility. John Lackey is out until at least May, but we don't know the full extent of his pain. '06 phenom Francisco Liriano is in the minors right now, but will reclaim his place as ace of the Minnesota staff soon, but who knows how long he will need to round back into form. And lastly, Milwaukee sensation Yovani Gallardo is in the minors working out the kinks of a spring leg injury. Grabbing one of these risk-reward specials is a great idea...if you get them at the right time or for the right cost. I wouldn't make any of them highter than a third starter on my team until they prove they are healthy, but I grabbed Gallardo and Liriano back-to-back in the 8th and 9th round of a recent draft this week, and they are my fifth and sixth starters. That's value, folks.

And now, drumroll please, for your top 50 starters:

Tier 1-Dominant Aces-These two can change how you draft, and can cover up mistakes of other starters on your staff.
1.Johan Santana-NYM
2.Jake Peavy-SD

Tier 2-Aces-Hey, only two owners can get Santana and Peavy. Get one of these guys and your staff will be led by a top-flight performer.
3.Brandon Webb-ARZ
4.Eric Bedard-SEA
5.Justin Verlander-DET
6.Cole Hamels-PHI
7.Dan Haren-ARZ
8.C.C. Sabathia-CLE-For the record, I don't like the odds of Sabathia getting close to his '07 numbers. He has thrown 1411.2 innings in the majors without a major arm injury, and as we all know, a pitcher's arm is a ticking time bomb waiting for Dr. James Andrews.
9.Josh Beckett-BOS

Tier 3-Not Dominant, but Very Steady-Getting two of these guys can lead a top staff. They all have the upside to enter tier two with a good year. These guys are the very important, and any good staff needs at least one.
10.Aaron Harang-CIN
11.James Shields-TB
12.Chris Young-SD
13.Carlos Zambrano-CHC
14.Felix Hernandez-SEA
15.Yovani Gallardo-MIL
16.Roy Halladay-TOR-Doesn't strike out anyone anymore. Getting by on guile alone.
17.Roy Oswalt-HOU-There is a reason he's next to Halladay on the list. And it's not because their first names are Roy.
18.Fusto Carmona-CLE
19.Tim Lincecum-SF
20.Matt Cain-SF

Tier 4-Some Questions-These guys have blemishes; some are injured, others not yet where they need to be in their development. They'll help you in a few categories, but won't give you a complete stat sheet.
21.Chien-Ming Wang-NYY-If he wasn't pitching for the Yanks, he'd be twenty spots lower.
22.Dustin McGowan-TOR
23.John Smoltz-ATL-Has some injury issues that have yet to be resolved.
24.Rich Hill-CHC
25.A.J. Burnett-TOR
26.John Maine-NYM-Skip Bayless of ESPN said Maine would be the Mets' ace this year over Santana. I laughed, changed the channel, and then remembered it was Skip Bayless.
27.Ben Sheets-MIL
28.Tim Hudson-ATL
29.Brad Penny-LAD-Trade him for good value at the All-Star break. Check the numbers and thank me later.
30.Francisco Liriano-MIN-He could be top ten by the end of the year. Or he could be on the DL five times and be of no help.
31.Jered Weaver-LAA-He's the ace until someone gets healthy. Sorry to say, he doesn't have the stuff to face other team's aces.
32.Gil Meche-KC-The prototypical good pitcher on a bad team.
33.Scott Kazmir-TB
34.John Lackey-LAA
35.Brett Myers-PHI
36.Ian Snell-PIT-See Meche, Gil.

Tier 5-The Rest-These guys have some value as fillers and will contribute, although inconsistently.
36.Daisuke Matsuzaka-BOS
37.Ted Lilly-CHC
36.Adam Wainwright-STL
37.Jeremy Bonderman-DET
38.Rich Harden-OAK-Good so far. If you get him late, he can't hurt you.
39.Phil Hughes-NYY
40.Joe Blanton-OAK-Will have more value if Billy Beane caves and trades him to a contender.
41.Matt Garza-TB
42.Tom Gorzelanny-PIT
43.Jeff Francis-COL
44.Oliver Perez-NYM
45.Jon Lester-BOS
46.Clay Buchholz-BOS
47.Greg Maddux-SD-Want six innings with two runs allowed and no K's. He's your man!
48.Bronson Arroyo-CIN
49.Ubaldo Jiminez-COL
50.Zack Greinke-KC

Notable omissions which mean I don't think they are worth anything, even a flyer: Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Guthrie, Barry Zito, Jon Garland, Randy Johnson.

2008 Fantasy Preview: Relief Pitchers

Here's my general philosophy on relievers: I don't take any of the top 10-15 ranked closers on any ranking list because I'd rather draft hitters, and take my chances with lower ranked closers. Every season someone comes out of nowhere and saves 40 games, and a few top ranked closers get hurt. Exhibit A would be B.J. Ryan. To get Ryan going into '07, you'd have to take him within the first five closers or so. He lasted all of a few weeks, and then missed the rest of the season. Sure, any player, hitter or pitcher can suffer a major injury, but why risk it when closing games is dependent upon fators other than their ability, which is the only variable the closer can control.

The top factor pertaining to closer production is opportunity, and guess what? You can't predict how many save opportunities a team will provide their closer. Consistency does not exist with closers. At some point, I'll illustrate this by showing the top ten closers at the end of the last three seasons and compare their final rankings to when they were drafted. Trust me, you'll never take Joe Nathan again, and that's not a knock on the Twins closer. It just doesn't pay to draft closers in the first 10-12 rounds.

The keys to this strategy is to 1. Know who the new closers are, and who is closing for bottom feeding teams, and 2. Be aware of how many closers are left throughout the draft. Guys like C.J. Wilson, Joakim Soria, and Kevin Gregg will decide fantasy matchups in the near future. I'd rather have three of these guys than to take Francisco Rodriguez in the first half of the draft.

Middle relievers can add a boost to your staff's ERA and WHIP, but if your league does not count holds, there is no reason to carry more than one. If your league does count holds, good luck, the stat is virtually devoid of any predictability. My advice is to select young strikeout artists that can take over as closer if their regulars waiver or get hurt. Some examples of these closers-in-waiting are San Diego's Heath Bell, New York's Joba Chamberlain, and LA's Jonathan Broxton.

Like the starters, I've divided the relievers into tiers. Enjoy the relievers, the most frustrating component of your fantasy roster.

Tier 1-You Know These Guys-Unless they fall precipitously (and sometimes they do), I won't own any of these closers. But they are the tops at what they do. Keep in mind J.J. Putz just went on the DL. His ranking is contingent on him coming back after the 15 days.
1.Jonathan Papelbon-BOS
2.Joe Nathan-MIN
3.Francisco Rodriguez-LAA
4.Takashi Saito-LAD
5.Billy Wagner-NYM
6.J.J. Putz-SEA
7.Jose Valverde-HOU-He and Cordero are last year's revelations. They are both in new locations. Hey, they saved 40, who's to argue?
8.Francisco Cordero-CIN
9.Mariano Rivera-NYY
10.Bobby Jenks-CHW

Tier 2-The New Guys-These closers are new or newish to the job. But that doesn't mean they can't do the job. At least one of these guys will save 40 and make you look like a genius.
11.Manny Corpas-COL
12.Rafael Soriano-ATL-Fantasy junkies have been eagerly awaiting his chance at being the man. Here's his chance to make us all proud.
13.Houston Street-OAK-Always seems to find a way to get injured. Also plays for a pathetic team.
14.Matt Capps-PIT
15.Joakim Soria-KC
16.Jeremy Accardo-TOR-Don't worry about Ryan. He's not healthy, and won't be for a while. And there's no guarantee he'll get his job back if Accardo is effective.

Tier 3-The Old Hands-These guys are unexciting, but they will collect saves. It'll be ugly, and they won't help your ERA or strikeout totals, but you get what you pay for.
17.Jason Isringhausen-STL
18.Trevor Hoffman-SD
19.Brad Lidge-PHI-Should be back from injury sometime soon.
20.Chad Cordero-WAS
21.Todd Jones-DET
22.Joe Borowski-CLE-Ugliest closer with a buttload of saves. Rafael Betancourt could take his job if he struggles.
23.Troy Percival-TB

Tier 4-Well, They're Closers!-These guys have opportunity, but not much else. They haven't proven anything, but they could surprise and be this year's Valverde. Or they could be out of a job by June.
24.Brian Wilson-SF
25.C.J. Wilson-TEX-No relation to the other Wilson.
26.George Sherrill-BAL
27.Eric Gagne-MIL-Frankly, scares the crap out of me. But he plays for a good team, as compared to the other guys in this tier.
28.Kevin Gregg-FLA
29.Kerry Wood-CHC

Tier 5-Setup Guys With Zazz!-These guys make good spare parts. All of them can strike batters out, and have some chance of closing games should their team's closers faulter.
30.Heath Bell-SD
31.Joba Chamberlain-NYY
32.Bob Howry-CHC
33.Jonathan Broxton-LAD
34.Carlos Marmol-CHC
35.Pat Neshek-MIN
36.Brandon Lyon-ARZ
37.Hideki Okajima-BOS
38.Rafael Betancourt-CLE
39.Tony Pena-ARZ
40.Alan Embree-OAK


Well, that wraps up the 2008 Fantasy Previews. Hopefully, these rankings can be of some help as you prepare to dominate your fantasy league. You can find me at [e-mail] for any questions or concerns, or even hate mail. Until then, have a great week.